Let’s not let the last couple of wins fool anyone. As currently constructed, the Red Sox still aren’t good enough to make a serious playoff run.
Yes, they’ve taken the first two games in Seattle and have a chance to complete a sweep before heading to Coors Field to face the Rockies. But two wins don’t erase the bigger issues that have plagued this team for months.
The lineup still lacks the consistent offensive punch needed to compete with legitimate contenders, even in an American League that’s been underwhelming this season. Unless Boston adds one or two impact bats before the trade deadline, it’s hard to envision this club doing much damage in October, even if it sneaks into the postseason.
To be fair, getting there would be an accomplishment in itself. The Red Sox spent much of the season buried in the AL East basement and looked destined to be sellers just a few weeks ago.
Now they have an opportunity to build some momentum against a favorable stretch of the schedule. But until this offense proves it can produce consistently against quality pitching, a healthy dose of skepticism is justified.
If the Red Sox don’t catch fire over the next few weeks and climb back into the Wild Card race, they should be sellers at the deadline. Hanging onto veterans in hopes of backing into the playoffs would be shortsighted.
If they rip off a hot streak and put themselves squarely in the postseason mix, that’s a different conversation.
But if they’re still hovering around .500 or several games out, the smarter long-term play is to move expiring assets, add to the farm system, and avoid chasing a playoff berth that likely ends in another early exit.
The Red Sox have plenty of pieces that would interest contenders if they decide to sell at the trade deadline.
Truthfully, there aren’t many players on the roster I’d label untouchable. Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony are the two obvious exceptions. Beyond that, I’d at least listen on just about everyone.
One player I’d be very hesitant to move, though, is Willson Contreras.
Boston acquired Contreras from the Cardinals over the winter, and he’s been everything the front office could have hoped for and then some. He’s on pace to set a career high in home runs, has been outstanding defensively at first base, and has emerged as one of the emotional leaders in the clubhouse.
He’s hit a rough patch lately, going just 2-for-18 with nine strikeouts over his last several games, but even with the slump, he’s carrying a stellar .916 OPS as the season nears its midpoint.
That production, combined with a team-friendly contract, makes him one of the most valuable assets the Red Sox have.
Contreras is under team control through 2027 with a $20 million club option for 2028, and because of that, he’d likely command a significant return on the trade market. The catch, however, is that he owns a no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal.
If Boston trades Contreras, who plays first base? Triston Casas isn’t close to returning, and Romy Gonzalez recently suffered another setback in his rehab. Unless the Red Sox acquire another first baseman as part of a deal, they’d be creating a hole in the lineup while trying to fix other areas of the roster.
Yes, Contreras is 34 and probably isn’t someone you build the next decade around. But for a team searching for stability and leadership, his value to Boston may outweigh even a sizable prospect package. With a salary cap looming over the game, young players will be more valuable than ever due to their years of control and cheap salaries, which could make teams hesitant to part with prospects.
If the Red Sox can land a young first baseman with upside as part of a larger deal, it’s worth exploring. Otherwise, the smarter move may be to hold onto Contreras and avoid creating a new problem while trying to solve existing ones.
Red Sox Most Valuable Trade Chips
Gray has been everything the Red Sox could have asked for since arriving from St. Louis.
The veteran right-hander has pitched like a legitimate No. 2 starter, going 8-1 with a 3.12 ERA, 55 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP across 69 1/3 innings in 13 starts. While his strikeout numbers are down from the 200-plus punchout seasons he posted the previous two years, he’s consistently given Boston quality innings and stabilized the rotation.
If the Red Sox decide to sell, however, Gray could become one of their most valuable trade chips.
The biggest hurdle is his no-trade clause, which carried over from the contract he signed with the Cardinals. But that obstacle may not be insurmountable. If a contender comes calling with a legitimate chance to win a World Series, Gray could be willing to waive it.
The Braves have already been mentioned as a potential fit, and there are reasons the pairing makes sense. Gray lives in the Nashville area, making Atlanta much closer to home than Boston, and the Braves are always looking to bolster their rotation for a postseason run.
Gray himself recently acknowledged the reality of where the Red Sox stand.
“I can’t speak on behalf of the group, but I can speak on behalf of myself,” he said after last week’s loss to Toronto. “It’s very frustrating. We’re not good. We’re just not a good team right now. That’s just a fact.”
Those comments suggest he understands where the season is headed. If Boston falls further out of contention, it’s not hard to imagine Gray approving a move to a club with legitimate October aspirations.
The Braves and Red Sox have recent trade history, most notably the deal that sent Chris Sale and cash to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom. A Gray trade would be another significant transaction between the two organizations.
Even as a rental, Gray wouldn’t come cheap. Boston would owe him roughly $3.6 million over the remainder of the season, plus a $10 million buyout when his 2027 mutual option is almost certainly declined. That’s a sizable financial commitment, but for a proven veteran who has pitched at the top of a rotation all season, contenders may view it as a worthwhile price to pay.
If the Red Sox ultimately become sellers, Gray could be one of the most sought-after starting pitchers on the market.
Chapman will be the most coveted relief trade chip at the deadline.
The 38-year-old closer has been dominant, posting a 0.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 21 2/3 innings entering Friday while recording 14 saves and striking out 29 batters against just nine walks.
