With the Asian Federation Confederation confirming that Australia has been given an additional play off spot in the AFC Champions League Elite, the stakes for the final day of the Isuzu UTE A-League season have gone up even further.
The additional slot takes the number of spots available in AFC competitions next season from two to three.
With the ACL Elite competition expanding from 24 to 32 teams for the 2026/27 season, Australia has been allocated an indirect entry to go with the direct entries into that competition and the ACL Two.
Direct entry to the ACL Elite has already been awarded to Newcastle for finishing first in the 2025/26 Isuzu UTE A-League season, meaning an indirect entry via a play off will be awarded to the next highest finishing Australian team.
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Auckland FC is ineligible for AFC competitions due to being based in a country in the Oceania Federation.
WHAT THE ADDITIONAL SPOT MEANS FOR TODAY’S ISUZU UTE A-LEAGUE FIXTURES
Three sides can nab the ACL Elite indirect entry — Adelaide United, Sydney FC and Melbourne City — and all three of them play today in a shootout for both that slot and a home final.
All three sides are capable of being the second highest finishing Australian team, and we’ve unravelled all the scenarios each of them need to make it (both the likely and the almost impossible).
To make matters a bit confusing, third place is currently in the possession of Melbourne Victory after their win over the Western Sydney Wanderers last night – however they actually can not finish there.
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Melbourne City take on Adelaide United later today, and any result will take one of the other sides above Victory – Adelaide if they win or draw, and City with a win.
HOW ADELAIDE CAN GET THE SPOT
Adelaide United have the simplest equation – they can finish as high as second on the table if they win and Auckland fail to beat Sydney FC at Allianz Stadium.
A victory by any margin over Melbourne City will have the Reds on 43 points — a total no other Australian team can get to.
The Reds will also most likely secure third if they draw with City, although Sydney can leap them into second spot on goal difference if they defeat Auckland by three goals.
HOW SYDNEY CAN GET THE SPOT
The equation is a bit less simple for the Sky Blues, who don’t have their destiny in their own hands.
They will need to defeat Auckland at Allianz Stadium to have any chance of grabbing the indirect entry — at two points behind Adelaide United, a draw won’t do.
But not only will they need to win, they also have to hope that Adelaide lose to Melbourne City, a scenario in which Sydney can actually finish as high as second — if they were to defeat Auckland by three or more goals.
The Sky Blues have a goal difference of +8 against the Black Knights’ +13 — a three goal victory to Sydney will raise theirs to +11 and drop Auckland’s to +10, meaning they would leap the Kiwi club to second spot.
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There is a very precise scenario where Sydney could win by less than three goals and still beat Adelaide to third spot — if the Reds can only draw with Melbourne City tomorrow, the Sky Blues can finish third with a two goal win.
This scenario would see both Adelaide and Sydney finish on 41 points for the season, and would push Sydney’s goal difference to +10 while the Reds’ would stay at +9.
A one goal win is of no help to Sydney if Adelaide were to draw away to City — if both teams finish equal on points and goal difference, Adelaide would be awarded third spot due to having scored more goals than Sydney (the gap between the sides is currently 13).
Just to make this even more confusing, it’s technically possible for Sydney to win and Adelaide to lose, and for the Sky Blues to still manage to miss the ACL Elite playoff spot.
It’s extremely unlikely however — Melbourne City would need to beat Adelaide by at least eight more goals than Sydney win by to overtake them in that case.
HOW MELBOURNE CITY CAN GET THE SPOT
Melbourne City’s destiny is slightly more in their own hands given they play Adelaide, although it still relies on Sydney’s result — if City win and the Sky Blues don’t, the playoff spot goes to the Melbourne side.
No result other than a win is good enough for City regardless of Sydney’s result; losing to the Reds will moor them in sixth and a draw won’t be able to lift them beyond fifth.
As detailed above, an eight goal victory for City could see them leapfrog Sydney into the ACL elite playoff spot even if the Sky Blues win, although that scenario is arguably the least likely of the bunch.
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So there you have it – each team’s permutations for ACL Elite playoff football next season.
There’s also the not insignificant carrot of a home final in the Isuzu UTE A-League to throw into the mix, a luxury afforded to the teams that finish third and fourth.
With so much on the line, make sure you don’t miss a minute of the Super Sunday today – available to stream live on Paramount+.
