Boston Red Sox
Bullpen regression, injuries, and a lack of timely hitting have hindered the Red Sox down the stretch.
The Boston Red Sox clinched a playoff berth earlier this week, setting the stage for a seemingly inevitable rematch against the Yankees in a best-of-three Wild Card series on Tuesday.
Beyond bracing for a miserable and rainy weekend series against the Cubs, the Red Sox are seemingly prioritizing rest and recovery over their final five regular-season games.
But as Boston preps for a potentially fruitful playoff run, there are a few concerning trends that have sprouted up as of late for this club — whose mid-season surge has been undercut by a pedestrian 10-10 record so far in September.
As the Red Sox prepare for the playoffs, here are a few concerning trends Chad Tracy and his team will need to monitor — and ideally iron out — before the stakes are raised.
Injuries to key bats
The Red Sox might have reinforcements on the way when it comes to Garrett Crochet returning in some capacity as a power arm out of the bullpen.
But Boston’s lineup is seemingly trending in the opposite direction, with a pair of All-Stars in Ceddanne Rafaela and Willson Contreras both hindered due to injuries less than a week before the postseason begins.
Rafaela was activated off the injured list on Wednesday after missing 17 games due to a quad strain, but only lasted two innings in his return before getting pulled due to hamstring tightness.
Rafaela didn’t sound the alarm over a potential setback or stint on the IL after Wednesday’s early exit — with the outfielder back in the lineup on Thursday. Still, it’s a concerning sight for a Red Sox team that needs a healthy Rafaela, night in and night out.
Contreras hasn’t played since Sept. 17 after taking a pitch off his hand during a road game in Texas, although he wasn’t placed on the IL.
Contreras seemingly dodged a bullet when it comes to avoiding a season-ending fracture. Still, it’s unclear how much of a runway he’ll get to shake the rust off before potentially stepping up to the plate against AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Cam Schlittler next Tuesday.
A Red Sox lineup that has gone ice cold over the last month could desperately use both Contreras and Rafaela back in their batting order — while Rafaela’s elite defense in center field can’t be overlooked with runs at a premium during postseason play.
Even if both Rafaela and Contreras are cleared for next week, it remains to be seen just how much both players have left in the tank.
Contreras in particular has been laboring through several injuries, prompting a stint on the IL earlier this month due to a hamstring strain.
Since Aug. 9, Contreras is batting just .225 with four home runs and 11 RBI over his last 23 games.
Bullpen issues
The success of the 2026 Red Sox is rooted in elite pitching, strong defense, and just enough timely hitting to give themselves some breathing room.
Tracy and the Red Sox likely have few qualms with their rotation, especially with Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle, and Ranger Suarez leading the charge.
But Boston’s elite bullpen has started to take on water down the stretch.
Justin Slaten was shut down earlier this month due to an elbow injury, while Aroldis Chapman missed 10 days with a left lat issue.
Boston’s closer was sharp on Wednesday against Cleveland in his return to the mound, but his health bears watching down the stretch.
Even though Boston still has an elite set-up man in Garrett Whitlock and other effective relief arms like Tyron Guerrero, Erik Miller’s recent slide has been concerning.
Acquired at the trade deadline in a swap involving Marcelo Mayer, Miller looked like a legitimate weapon out of the bullpen at the start of his tenure with Boston — sporting a 0.63 ERA in his first 14 appearances with 25 strikeouts over 14.1 innings of work.
But over his last four outings, Miller has surrendered six runs in just 3.1 innings of work — walking six batters during that stretch.
An effective Miller next to Whitlock, Guerrero, and potentially Crochet gives Boston a multitude of power arms out of the ‘pen that can bridge the gap to Chapman.
But things become a lot more complicated if Miller continues to struggle, Crochet’s impact is minimal, and Chapman’s lat issue keeps popping up.
Lack of timely hitting
The Red Sox might like what they have with their rotation entering a best-of-three series against New York.
But New York is also set to roll out the trio of Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon against Boston in that potential playoff series — with Gerrit Cole also in the mix.
Runs might be at a premium in that upcoming series, which doesn’t exactly benefit a Red Sox team whose offense has gone cold as the calendar flips to the fall.
Since the start of September, Boston ranks 28th out of 30 MLB teams in team batting average (.227) and 23rd in walks (56).
The Red Sox’ lack of pop (24th in MLB with just 162 homers on the year) might also loom large in a series where a solo shot or two-run blast into the short porch at Yankee Stadium could determine a game … or the series.
Extended absences for both Contreras and Rafaela loom large over Boston’s dip in offense down the stretch, while a hot start for Roman Anthony has given way to some brutal regression out of the leadoff spot.
Over his last 17 games, Anthony is batting just .178 with a .231 on-base percentage — walking five times and striking out 24 times over 78 total plate appearances.
The margins are going to be very slim in a potential Red Sox vs. Yankees playoff series. As such, the Red Sox need to capitalize on the very few opportunities that present themselves.
But since Sept. 1, the Red Sox are batting just .175 (27-for-154) with runners in scoring position.
The Red Sox’ lineup isn’t built to overpower opposing pitching staffs with a barrage of homers.
But if this team wants to carry its season well into October, it’s going to need to work counts, get on base, play small ball to get runners over, and cash in with men on base.
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