Energy prices are expected to rise by 24 percent in 2026, reaching their highest level since 2022, as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply and shocks global markets, according to the World Bank.
The report said overall commodity prices are projected to increase by 16 percent this year, driven by rising energy, fertilizer, and metal prices. Oil markets have been hit particularly hard, with Brent crude prices more than 50 percent higher in mid-April compared to the start of the year.
The World Bank expects Brent oil to average around $86 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 per barrel in 2025. The surge is linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route that handles about 35 percent of seaborne crude oil trade.
The conflict has caused an estimated reduction of around 10 million barrels per day in global oil supply, marking one of the largest supply shocks on record. Fertilizer prices are also expected to rise sharply by 31 percent, including a 60 percent increase in urea prices, raising concerns for agriculture and food production.
The report warned that higher fertilizer costs could reduce crop yields and push up to 45 million more people into food insecurity. Prices of key metals such as aluminum, copper, and tin are also expected to reach record highs, driven by demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers.
Precious metals are forecast to rise by 42 percent, as investors move toward safe assets amid global uncertainty. The World Bank said these rising prices will increase inflation and slow economic growth, particularly in developing economies.
Inflation in developing countries is now expected to reach 5.1 percent in 2026, higher than earlier estimates, while growth is projected to slow to 3.6 percent. The report warned that if the conflict worsens, oil prices could rise further to as high as $115 per barrel, pushing inflation even higher.
