President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, but with roughly six months before Election Day, he’ll still likely be the biggest factor in determining the fortunes of the Republican Party.
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Republicans have lost a number of elections in the past six months — sometimes by overwhelming margins — giving Democrats a sense of momentum. That feeling is exacerbated by Trump’s low approval ratings, his inability to lower stubbornly high costs and an ongoing war with Iran.
On top of all that is the historical trend that the party that controls the White House generally loses congressional seats during the midterms.
Nevertheless, Republicans across the country say they see reason for optimism.
NBC News reached out to more than 120 members of the Republican National Committee and GOP activists across the country to get a sense of how they view their electoral chances at this point in time. In roughly 30 interviews, these Republicans said they believe the party can hold on to its majority in Congress. But they also had clear ideas about what they want from leaders at the national level in order to stave off a potential blue wave.
“The 2026 midterms will come down to one simple question: Who is delivering real results for the American people?” Joseph Wood, chair of the Arkansas Republican Party, said. “President Trump’s administration has already run circles around the failed President Biden years, securing the border, slashing taxes, cutting government waste and restoring law and order.”
Republicans received a boost this month when two court decisions gave them the upper hand in the redistricting fight, likely reducing the number of congressional seats Democrats can pick up in November. The GOP has also raised significantly more money than major Democratic groups, and there is cautious optimism that gas prices will go down if Trump can wrap up the Iran war.
“Before the redistricting conversation, it seemed like it could be tough sledding, but after the Supreme Court ruling, I think we are playing with house money,” AK Kamara, the RNC national committeeman from Minnesota, said. “I think Republicans are going to be able to pick up lots of seats without having to flip seats.”
“I think our party will show patience,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said of Republican voters dealing with high gas prices as a result of the Iran war. “It just needs to be explained to our voters under 55 or 50. When explained that it’s temporary, Iowans have patience.”
A top concern for Republican officials is turning out the base even though Trump won’t be on the ballot — and getting the sometimes easily distracted president to turn his attention and messaging to the economy and pocketbook issues, including focusing on the “big, beautiful bill,” a sweeping tax cut package that is Trump’s biggest second-term legislative victory. The law has since been rebranded by many Republicans as the “Working Families Tax Cut.”
“The economy is always a top issue and we have a great story to tell,” Jason Simmons, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, said. “We stopped the largest tax increase in American history and passed the Working Families Tax Cut, putting more money in the pockets of those who deserve it.”
The RNC did not return a request for comment.
Policy issues on voters’ minds
The Iran war — which Trump said he initially thought could last four to five weeks — is now in its third month. The president has said it’s almost over, and the administration continues to negotiate an end to the war.
The war has caused a split in his “America First” political base that wanted a focus on domestic issues like immigration. That schism has complicated Trump’s efforts to stabilize his approval ratings.
In a PBS/Marist poll released late last month, just 33% said they approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, and 35% said they approved of his handling of the economy, the lowest figure for either of Trump’s two terms in office.
A lack of focus on the economy and the potential of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East concerns many Republicans, according to the dozens of interviews NBC News conducted, but many take comfort in the idea that things can change quickly.
“I am not concerned at this point,” Janet Fogarty, an RNC national committeewoman from Massachusetts, said. “There is plenty of time before voters start focusing on the November election. Also, the polls have always been off in the past several election cycles, particularly as it pertains to Trump.”
Trump so far has not delved deeply into the overt 2026 midterm politics. He has done few rallies and declined to endorse in key Senate primaries in Georgia and Texas, and his attention has been taken up by Iran and side projects like renovating the reflecting pool on the National Mall and constructing a White House ballroom.
Last week, he told NBC News that Republicans’ chances in large part will come down to whether the GOP-led Congress is able to pass the SAVE America Act, a sweeping elections bill that would require voters to provide proof of citizenship like a passport or birth certificate to register to vote in federal elections, among other changes.
“Passing the SAVE America Act is very important. If we don’t pass the SAVE America Act, I feel less good,” Trump said in a phone interview. “In many cases, they [Trump voters] won’t love the Republican Party if they don’t pass the SAVE America Act. I can only do so much.”
Trump has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the proposal for Republicans’ midterm chances, but few Republicans brought it up unprompted in NBC News’ dozens of interviews.
The bill has been bogged down in the Senate and does not appear to have the votes to pass.
Republican officials said they believe the “big, beautiful bill” is where the party needs to focus. Sixty percent of savings from the tax overhaul are projected to go to the top fifth of households, according to the Tax Policy Center, which conducts research and analysis on tax legislation. It also included provisions intended to fulfill his campaign pledge of “no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security” — even though many middle-income families say they are not seeing benefits as large as they expected.
But Republican officials said they’ve heard voters happy with the effects of the laws.
“We are a huge manufacturing state, and here in Michigan, the no tax on overtime has been hugely popular,” Michigan GOP Chairman and state Sen. Jim Runestad said. “I actually hear from folks on the street about it. It has been huge.”
“The only other thing I hear about a lot is gas prices,” he added. “And that can be reversed.”
GOP cash advantage
Republicans also find themselves in a position that’s unique in recent election cycles: a cash advantage.
The constellation of national GOP organizations, including the Republican National Committee, the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. and groups that support House and Senate candidates, collectively have $843 million cash on hand. That number sits at $304 million for similar Democratic groups.
The money advantage does not guarantee victory — in 2024, for instance, Democrats had a major money lead and Republicans currently control the White House and Congress — but it does give the party a huge resource boost when getting its message out to voters.
“Rarely do we see the Republicans have a money advantage over Democrats,” Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said. “This cycle we have that. President Trump has made sure all the political entities have raised and spent money in concert.”
“I wouldn’t trade our position with the Democrats going into the midterms,” he added.
Turning out the Trump base without Trump
Of lingering concern for many Republicans is whether voters who turn out only when Trump is on the ballot will vote in the midterms when he is not. Trump’s political superpower since entering politics in 2015 has been engaging voters who had not previously been involved in politics, known as low-propensity voters. It has helped build his MAGA movement and notch huge wins for Republicans, but a recurring issue has been those voters staying home when the president is not running.
“We have not cracked that code,” said the chair of a Southern state Republican Party who was granted anonymity to talk freely about his midterm concerns. “We have seen that in the past, and with some of the races this year. … If we don’t figure out a way to energize MAGA voters, it’s going to be a real problem — especially considering some of the things already working against Republicans.”
Party officials are aware of their past problems with Trump-centric voters who don’t vote when the president isn’t on the ballot, and they say they have been working on fixes. The first attempt was in the December special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, where Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn with nearly 54% of the vote.
“Some are disconnected from politics, especially in a midterm where they might not even know their senator is up for re-election,” a senior national Republican strategist said. “Tennesseee was a test run. The polling was looking very close, and we started sending out mailers with dates of the election, and President Trump did a tele-town hall rally dialed out to low- and mid- propensity voters.”
“It was an education barnstorm, and the numbers got back in our favor,” the person added.
Some of the president’s vanity projects, like the White House ballroom and renovations to the reflecting pool, also worry Republicans, who feel Trump’s attention can too easily be captured by things that are at best distractions and at worst turnoffs for voters who might see the projects as out of touch during difficult economic times.
“We have to stop talking about a ballroom,” said a Republican official from a Midwest swing state. “People can’t afford groceries. I think Republicans have a good story to tell, but we need our top messenger to be telling it day after day.”
Last week, at an event presided over by a pastor, a 22-foot gold statue of Trump was unveiled at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami. Because the event was led by a pastor, it prompted pushback from those who saw it as a symbol of false worship. Trump called into the event and said it was “done out of love.”
Evangelical Pastor Mark Burns, who led the event, was forced to later clarify the statute was “not created for worship. It was created as a symbol of resilience, patriotism, courage and gratitude.”
“We don’t need that kind of distraction,” a longtime GOP state party chairman said of the event. “I don’t know who that is for, who it’s going to convince to vote for Republicans if they are on the fence.”
It’s the sort of distraction that worries Republicans, because whether or not he’s on the ballot, the election will hinge on Trump and his influence.
It’s an idea not lost on Trump himself.
“I am on the ballot,” Trump told NBC News last week. “And my voters love me.”
