A widely shared analysis by a Chinese commentator has warned that the petrodollar, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the entire US economy face imminent collapse with no quick way out of the Middle East War.
He raised some near-impossible questions about the United States’ position in the ongoing Middle East war with Iran. He frankly admitted that the US is effectively “trapped” with no viable way to win, withdraw, or negotiate a ceasefire.
He said the war has developed its own momentum and made it increasingly difficult for either side to step back without facing severe political, military, and economic consequences. Drawing parallels to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said that once wars reach this stage, traditional negotiations or military interventions become nearly impossible to execute without triggering catastrophic outcomes.
5 Reasons Why Ceasefire Will Hurt Everyone Involved (Except Iran)
The analysis outlines several potential risks if the US attempts a ceasefire or withdrawal:
- Iranian Dominance in the Gulf: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could fall under Iranian influence, ultimately removing the US military’s protective presence in the region.
- Petrodollar Collapse: The analyst warned that US dependence on the petrodollar could crumble, hurt global demand for dollars and jeopardize America’s $39 trillion debt structure.
- Asian Remilitarization: Japan and South Korea may expand their militaries to compensate for the US withdrawal, thus reducing their reliance on American weapons.
- European Realignment: Europe could seek peace with Russia, which would trigger the end of NATO and undermine American strategic dominance.
- Global Economic Fallout: Combined, these factors could lead to a collapse of US economic influence and reserve currency status.
The analyst further warned against the much-discussed “ground invasion trap”. Even limited operations (like seizing Karg Island) in the heart of Iran’s oil exports could escalate into a full-scale land war due to Iran’s geographic and tactical advantages. He predicted that it will invoke the “mission creep” scenario similar to the disasters of the USA’s wars in Vietnam and Iraq.
Altogether, Iran has been preparing for two decades to counter all US military strategies. Washington’s conventional warfare advantages, such as aircraft carriers and air strikes, can be easily neutralized by asymmetric tactics, drones, hypersonic missiles, underground facilities, and proxy networks.
The analysis concluded that the only viable path forward for the US is a fundamental shift in approach:
- Abandoning domination in favor of diplomatic cooperation with major powers including Russia, China, and Iran, and
- Seeking a new world order based on shared stability rather than unilateral control.
