Disastrous midterm results will end Donald Trump’s longshot, “unconstitutional” dream of a third term as President and trigger major “soul searching” among a Republican Party needing to pick up the pieces in the race to the 2028 election, an experienced campaign expert says.
The smoke continues to clear on this week’s “historic outcome” that massively shifted the balance of power in Washington towards the Democrats.
Cory Alpert — a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne who previously served in the Biden-Harris White House for three years and as a senior adviser to former Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin in South Carolina — described the results as a “near-complete repudiation” of Trump’s agenda.
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He said voters had punished anyone with close ties to the President, “including in seats that no one expected to be competitive”.
So what does it mean for Trump’s legacy political movement, those with an eye on the top job, and the successful “blue tsunami”?
Do the midterm results spell the end of MAGA?
Alpert said the blistering midterm losses had left the Make America Great Again movement in a “tricky position”, but added it has not taken its last breath yet.
“Because of the scale of the election results, Republicans looking to win in (the 2028 elections) need to figure out a strategy that can separate them from Trump, whom voters are saying is politically toxic,” Alpert told 7NEWS.com.au.
An attendee holds a “Make America Great Again” sign during a campaign event. Credit: Allison Joyce/Bloomberg
The difficulty is that they will have to do that while Trump is still a sitting President.
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“This isn’t necessarily the death of MAGA, but it’s the beginning of the end of Trump’s time as the sole feature of Republican politics if the party wants to survive extinction,” Alpert said.
What triggered the Democrats’ blue tsunami?
Amid frustration over cost of living pressures and the ongoing Iran war, Alpert believes these elections were “mostly a rejection” of Trump and the Grand Old Party.
“The swing seems to have started with a correction to the demographic shifts that Trump won in 2024, among Latinos, Black men, and young people. Those demographics shifted back to supporting Democrats,” he said.
“A lot of Republicans stayed home. They couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, but they didn’t want to vote for a MAGA candidate.”
An expert says many Republicans stayed home. Credit: AAP
“You also saw independents do quite well in some races like Nebraska, where Republicans were willing to support an independent candidate.
“But this election also saw a lot more people in core Democratic constituencies showing up in droves.”
How would Donald Trump be dealing with the fallout behind closed doors?
Alpert said Trump would at some level respect the Democrats — who he previously labelled the “Dumocrats” — following the demolition they just dished out.
“We’re only a couple of days out. There’s a lot of time for Trump to start blaming more people specifically,” he said.
“The problem is that he can’t go too far in firing anyone who holds a Senate-confirmed job.
“With a substantial Democratic majority in the Senate, he will not easily be able to replace a Cabinet secretary as a sacrifice.”
Who will be angling for Trump’s job?
Alpert has flagged Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among the early top contenders but said “virtually no Republicans” have come out of the midterm cycle with momentum.
“There will be a period of soul-searching by the party over the next few months,” he said.
Alpert — who has held senior staff and advisory roles during Senate, House, gubernatorial, mayoral, and state legislative races throughout the US — believes the single “silver lining for Republicans in their primary is that Trump’s squawking about a third term will end”.
President Donald Trump speaks to the media before walking across the South Lawn of the White House to board Marine One, Friday, Nov. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) Credit: Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein
Under the Constitution, where changes are difficult to make and rare, Trump cannot serve another period as President but that has not stopped him from floating the idea.
“(That talk) ran through these midterms, where (Trump) was hoping to have Republican governors overseeing the elections in the swing states,” Alpert said.
“Of the seven swing states in the 2024 campaign, all seven will be led by Democratic governors in 2028.
“I don’t see Trump being impeached. Democrats would be foolish to make a martyr of him. I could see him resigning, but I don’t think we’re there yet.”
How will ambitious Republicans handle the shadow of Trump?
“This is the billion-dollar question. Voters have just sent a very clear message that any ties to Trump will be punished,” Alpert said.
“The dynamic could certainly change if voters decide that Democrats, who now have substantial power in all of America’s largest states, aren’t living up to their campaign promises.
“But barring a major change in the national mood, Republicans will learn from this midterm that Trump is now toxic.
“They’ll be looking to find distance from him. But that’s easier said than done when he’s still in the White House and still has massive sway over the Republican primary electorate.”
How will the Democrats consolidate these results ahead of the 2028 election?
Alpert said the Democrats are in control of “the greatest opportunity” they have held in a long time.
“They now have power in places that weren’t dreamed to be competitive. They won every statewide election on the ballot in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, among plenty of other states,” he said.
“The challenge for Democrats will be maintaining a laser focus on affordability. They cannot get distracted by culture war issues that voters aren’t interested in right now.
“They won this campaign through that discipline. If they can maintain that in governing, that’s the best possible message for Presidential and other candidates going into 2028.”
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