Australia’s jobs freeze is playing out differently across the public and private sectors, with government organisations more likely to be hiring but also far more likely to be planning redundancies.
New Australian HR Institute research shows recruitment intentions rose slightly to 61 per cent in the June quarter, up from 59 per cent in March, but remain well below the 71 per cent recorded in December.
The national figure hides a sharp split, with 75 per cent of public sector organisations planning to hire compared with 58 per cent of private sector employers.
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At the same time, public sector employers are nearly twice as likely to be planning redundancies, at 31 per cent compared with 16 per cent in the private sector.
The mixed picture comes as workers across the economy stay put. Employee turnover has fallen to 13.5 per cent, down 11.2 per cent over six months and the lowest rate since the survey began in May 2023.
AHRI chief executive Sarah McCann-Bartlett said employers and employees across both sectors were hunkering down in the face of economic uncertainty.
“Australian workers may be choosing stability over movement, but stability is not the same as job satisfaction,” Ms McCann-Bartlett said.
“When pay expectations are running below inflation and employees’ choices are limited, this creates real risks for engagement, productivity and wellbeing.”
ABS figures show wages are also changing, with public sector earnings growing slightly faster than private sector earnings in the year to March, at 3.3 per cent compared with 3.2 per cent.
But AHRI’s outlook suggests that may be reversing, with employers expecting private sector pay rises of 3.3 per cent through to April 2027, compared with just 2.4 per cent in the public sector.
Across all employers, expected pay rises of 3.1 per cent remain well below headline inflation of 4.2 per cent.
Workplace pressure is also building.
Job demands remained the leading cause of psychosocial complaints for the second consecutive year, accounting for 23 per cent of complaints, followed by poor workplace relationships at 22 per cent, lack of role clarity at 19 per cent and poor support at 17 per cent.
“Against the backdrop of muted hiring activity and reduced reliance on contractors, a key risk for employers is that job demands and workload pressures increase in the months ahead,” Ms McCann-Bartlett said.
