Boston Red Sox
The last time they met in back-to-back playoffs was 2003 and 2004. We all know how that turned out.
It feels like yesterday that the Red Sox ventured to the Bronx for the Wild Card Series and fell to the Yankees in heartbreaking fashion.
Well, one year later, they’ll get a crack at redemption. Once the Red Sox revitalized their season, it seemed like the two teams were destined to meet again.
Here’s everything you need to know as Boston looks for some revenge and tries to keep its season alive.
The schedule
For better or worse (it’s worse, but let’s try to be optimistic), 8 p.m. slots are inevitable when the Red Sox and Yankees meet in the playoffs.
Here’s how it’s set to go down:
Game 1: Red Sox at Yankees, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 8 p.m., NBC
Game 2: Red Sox at Yankees, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 8 p.m., NBC
Game 3 (if nec.): Red Sox at Yankees, Thursday, Oct. 1, TBD, NBC
Major League Baseball has done a great job speeding up games, but I think we can all pencil these ones in as four-plus-hour marathons. Even with elite pitching on both sides, you can bet on long commercials, lots of pitching changes, and possibly extra innings.
With that said, it doesn’t get much more captivating than this outside of the World Series, so try to enjoy it.
How they got here
The Red Sox were basically done for in late June, and it didn’t look like there was a whole lot to play for. They sat at 32-46 with what seemed like no chance of making the postseason and looked ready for Cancún.
Then, they got hot. Next, they caught fire. After that, they sustained it before coming back down to Earth and finishing the regular season a respectable but far-from-spectacular 87-75. It’s their first time making the postseason in back-to-back years since a three-year stretch from 2016 to 2018.
The Yankees had a much more linear season, starting 9-8 before hitting their stride to reach 18 games above .500 in mid-June and finishing 25 above at 93-68. That’s right, the Red Sox had to fly to St. Petersburg to wrap up the regular season, whereas the Yankees stayed at home and never rescheduled their 162nd game against the Orioles. Life isn’t always fair.
Any outcome is possible in a baseball series, but let’s be clear: the Yankees are the better team. Not by a landslide, but they’re objectively better.
How the teams match up
Manager Chad Tracy wouldn’t reveal his Game 1 starter Sunday night. Sonny Gray is the most likely pick, but Payton Tolle and Ranger Suárez are also possibilities.
Last year, the Red Sox won the first game before dropping the next two. The strategy here is fascinating, and Tracy’s decision will almost certainly be scrutinized regardless of how it shakes out. I’d personally go Gray in Game 1 to set the tone, Tolle in Game 2 to provide juice either way, and Suárez in Game 3 (if it happens) to serve as a stabilizer.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have announced their starters: Game 1: Cam Schlittler; Game 2: Max Fried; Game 3, if necessary: Gerrit Cole. Schlittler is one of four Yankees with a sub-2.00 ERA since 1913. The Yankees have a slight edge, but only slight. Tolle is clearly the X-factor, with the chance to shift the momentum either direction.
The Red Sox theoretically have a slight edge out of the bullpen, with Erik Miller, Garrett Whitlock, and Aroldis Chapman leading the way, while the Yankees will counter with Brent Headrick, Tim Hill, and David Bednar, among others. But, Boston has a 6.86 bullpen ERA against New York this season, while the Yankees’ is 2.11.
Ask Aaron Judge (calf), and he’ll tell you he’s playing. Ask Aaron Boone (cautious manager), and he’ll tell you he isn’t. We’ll see what happens there. The Yankees were second in MLB with 223 home runs entering Sunday’s games, but fifth-to-last to with a .235 average. The Red Sox were fifth-to-last in homers (162) and in the middle of the pack in average (.245).
Possible Red Sox X-factors include Willson Contreras’s and Ceddanne Rafaela’s health, Caleb Durbin’s and Jaren Duran’s speed, and Trevor Story’s, Roman Anthony’s, and Adley Rutschman’s bats. Yankees X-factors include Ben Rice’s power, Jazz Chisholm’s speed, and Luis Garcia Jr.’s level of consistency.
The Yankees won the regular-season series, 7-6, averaging 4.3 runs compared to 3 for the Red Sox. They hit 15 home runs, while Boston had nine, and posted a 2.37 starter ERA compared to 2.70 for the Red Sox.
The matchup’s history and significance
The last time these teams met in back-to-back playoffs was 2003 and 2004. The Yankees crushed the Red Sox’ dreams in 2003, but 2004 turned out all right for Boston.
This series will put the Red Sox and Yankees tied for second-most meetings ever, behind only the Yankees and Dodgers. Each team has won three times, so historical bragging rights are on the line in this one.
The winner will face American League East foe Tampa Bay in the best-of-five American League Divisional Series, and the winner of that one will face the Guardians, Astros, or White Sox in the best-of-seven American League Championship Series.
It was even better when these teams met in the ALCS, but whenever it happens, it’s a real treat. Don’t take it for granted.
Prediction
It feels like whichever team advances here has a pretty solid chance to make the World Series. There isn’t another American League team that’s definitively better than these two.
With that said, the Yankees just have a bit more starting pitching and power, plus home-field advantage. Interestingly, the Red Sox finished with a better record on the road (46-35) than at home (41-40). The postseason is a different animal, though.
The Red Sox’ best chance is to keep the games low-scoring and win 2-1 or 3-2. If they can do that, they’ll have a shot, but there isn’t much room for error. If the Yankees score, say, five or six, in a game, it seems highly unlikely that the Red Sox will be able to match that.
New York takes a low-scoring Game 1, Boston responds to win Game 2 behind Tolle’s brilliance, then the Yankees prevail in a back-and-forth Game 3 that crushes Boston fans even more than the last one. Sorry to disappoint, but again, the Yankees are just a bit better.
But, if there’s a little 2004 magic in the air, anything can happen …
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