I don’t know about you, but it sure is nice to officially not have to worry about any other team in the American League Wild Card race nipping at our heels now that the Red Sox have formally clinched a spot in the playoffs.
I can only speak for myself, but I’d be lying if I didn’t have the memory of 2011 at least pass through my mind for a hot second here or there. It was always highly unlikely that the Sox were gonna choke this September to the point of missing out on one of the three non-divisional slots on the Junior Circuit’s side of the bracket (reminiscent of Mr. Burns’ musings about softball misfortunes), but baseball’s a strange game. To not have the threat of an excruciating collapse hanging over our heads—however implausible it was to begin with—is lovely.
Now that the playoff berth has been clinched and the champagne has been sprayed, we’ve got about a week to think about one major question: What is the Red Sox’s starting rotation going to look like for the best-of-three set?
Well, as Tyler Milliken of Section 10 fame pointed out on the bird app, Chad Tracy and company may have already shown their hand ahead of what’s likely going to come down to a showdown in the Bronx against the Yankees in a matter of days (in fact, I’d go as far as to guess that this does tip their hand for what we may see against New York). On Sunday, Boston announced that they’d be going with the trio of Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez—in that order—against the Cleveland Guardians in the penultimate set of the regular season.
Right from the jump, I think this decision does indicate the club’s intentions in the Wild Card. It’s simple math—which is a struggle for a mere blogger like myself, but I’m sure is a breeze for everyone else (so what if I still have to use my fingers to count?). The Wild Card series will begin a week from today—Tuesday, September 29—meaning that Tolle, Gray, and Suarez would all be entering their respective starts with plenty of rest for the playoffs if that order were to be maintained. Barring any injuries, rest should not be a factor should this be the trio that the Sox roll into the WC series with.
On top of that, I do think this is clearly the three starters you should be counting on in a do-or-die situation. While Jake Bennett has been impressive this year, I wouldn’t give him the nod in any of these games—and I probably wouldn’t in the ALDS and beyond over Brayan Bello following his bounceback, either. Bello’s probably the fourth guy in a hypothetical playoff rotation, whether you start him outright or pair him with an opener, but I don’t want to just presume that we’re moving beyond the opening round—let’s focus on that first. Pablo Patrick Sandoval in the playoffs is a nonstarter and I’m upset at myself that I have to even waste time writing this sentence out.
Long story short: I think the correct group of guys is staring us right in the face. Payton Tolle’s been stellar his last few time out and has the stuff to go toe-to-toe with just about anybody when he’s clicking. With a top-10 ERA in baseball entering this week, Sonny Gray is going to garner Cy Young votes. Ranger Suarez has truly rebounded in September following a rough post-injury spell, just in time to possibly build on the postseason track record that got me excited about him signing in Boston in the first place.
My main thought, though, is whether this is the right order of starters to go with. Let’s talk it through.
I think you’ve gotta give Sonny the ball in one of the two guaranteed games. He’s the one righty out of the trio, and he’s been a true steady Eddy for just about the entire season. You’d absolutely be kicking yourself if you went down without a Cy Young nominee getting a chance on the bump. The 2026 Yankees have performed worse against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, for what it’s worth (.229/.308/.405 in almost 3,500 plate appearances against righties compared to .246/.318/.420 in just over 1,700 PAs against southpaws).
The real question comes down to whether Tolle or Suarez gets the nod in the other preferred game, the guys who—again—I think are clearly the other two best candidates in the rotation. I don’t think this is a bad problem to have; if the Sox wanted to signal that they were going to roll with Suarez in game one or two of the Wild Card series, I’d be cool with that.
Ultimately, though, I like that we’re (presumably) starting off with Tolle.
You need a lot to go against a guy like Cam Schlittler. The dude is going to win the Cy Young this year. To boot, we have to call a spade a spade: He’s absolutely carved Boston up. To go into Yankee Stadium with that guy on the mound is a tall task, but it’s a task where you need a gunslinger of your own to possibly outperform the likely ERA champ.
Tolle can miss a ton of bats, man. In the 13 innings he’s pitches against New York this season (albeit, they were all in the first half of the year), he struck out 18 hitters. He gets guys to chase out of the zone and/or whiff entirely while also limiting hard contact and barrels; take a look at all of that red on his Savant page and try telling me that isn’t a guy you want in a hitter’s ballpark like Yankee Stadium. I know I said that the Yankees have performed better agaisnt left-handed pitchers in 2026, but not every left-handed pitcher is Payton Tolle; I like the idea of him going up against left-handed Yankee hitters, even if the short porch is looming. You need a guy who can potentially beat Schlitter in his own park; I think Tolle’s better suited to do that than Suarez.
But again, I like Suarez a lot! This is not me disavowing any faith I’d have in his abilities in the playoffs. He’s got a 1,48 ERA in 42.2 playoff innings; the dude knows how to perform when it counts. But someone’s got to be prepped for the third game; I think it’s right to line him up for that opportunity. And y’know what? Best case scenario, he’s ready to roll for the first game of the ALDS. Worst case, where he doesn’t pitch at all, I still think you’d be able to say that you went down with your best options at this point in time.
…………………………………………Crochet would be nice to have as a starter though, wouldn’t he?
