New England Patriots
Drake Maye will need to opt for a more conservative approach against a Green Bay defense that forces plenty of turnovers.
Drake Maye came to the rescue on Sunday in Miami, pushing a shorthanded Patriots roster past the Dolphins with a second-half rally.
Maye might need to be even better on Sunday, given both New England’s elevated opponent in the 5-3 Packers and the likelihood of another shorthanded Patriots depth chart.
Beyond Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium as part of Fox Sports’ broadcast team, Sunday’s matchup should be an anticipated bout between Green Bay and New England — two teams that have each won four of their last five games.
New England could be without several playmakers in Foxborough, including A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry, and TreVeyon Henderson. But the Patriots’ defense will also have its hands full trying to corral Packers QB Jordan Love — who leads the league in passing yards so far this season.
Here are four keys to a Patriots win against the Packers:
Limit turnovers, heaves down the field
For the second week in a row, Maye may need to make the most of a limited offensive arsenal — especially with both Brown and Henry yet to practice this week.
Further compounding New England’s offensive woes is a matchup against an elite Green Bay defense.
Even without star pass-rusher Micah Parsons (still working back from a torn ACL), the Packers have been a thorn in the side of opposing QBs all season long — ranking second in the NFL with 15 takeaways.
That opportunistic, zone-heavy Green Bay defense could be a matchup nightmare for New England — given that the Patriots have coughed up at least one turnover in each of their first eight games this season and rank third in the league with 15 total giveaways.
For what it’s worth, Maye has remedied some of his early turnover woes during this resurgent stretch of play. Since Week 4, Maye has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions — leading all NFL QBs in passer rating over that stretch.
But Maye will need to be at his best to avoid playing into Green Bay’s hands with an ill-advised throw or two that can shift momentum quickly.
Given both New England’s banged-up wideout corps and Green Bay’s layered zone defense, Maye might need to rein in his desire to launch a few deep balls downfield — given that the Packers have allowed only four completions off 16 deep passes this season.
“They don’t let up a lot of explosive plays,” Maye said on Wednesday. “I think they’re in the right spot. They’ve got veteran guys. They’ve got young guys playing well. They’re good in the back end. They keep things in front. They mix up pressure looks. They’re getting guys free to the quarterback. We’ve got a tough challenge.”
Josh McDaniels might have to dial up a more basic game plan against Green Bay, with Maye doing damage by way of a thousand paper cuts rather than trying to gash the Packers with a few throws down the sideline.
Dominate in the trenches
The Patriots have made the most of Zak Kuhr’s blitz-heavy approach on defense so far this season, with New England one of eight teams with at least 22 sacks entering Week 9.
But for as much as New England might want to dial up pressure on Love by sending in players like Elijah Ponder or Gabe Jacas, the Packers QB is the wrong type of signal-caller to send in extra rushers against.
So far this season, Love has feasted against the blitz — with 824 of his 2,246 passing yards this year coming against blitz plays.
As such, the Patriots will have to rely on their big men in the trenches to put Love under duress without sending in extra blitzers — while also ensuring Green Bay’s dormant run game stays stuck in molasses.
Green Bay is averaging just 60.6 rushing yards per game, and the return of All-Pro Josh Jacobs (2.3 yards per carry) has done little to alleviate those woes.
Still, the Packers have done plenty of damage thanks to Love’s arm and his willingness to air it out — with New England counting on players like Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Corey Durden to disrupt Love and take him down before plays can develop.
A measured defensive approach might be the best plan against Love, rather than leaving defensive backs on an island or exposing the second layer of the defense to quick gains if New England dials up regular blitzes.
Durden in particular is a player to watch, especially coming off a game where he posted 1.5 sacks and two tackles for loss against the Dolphins.
But New England’s entire secondary will need to be dialed in against Love, who leads all NFL QBs with 46 deep-pass attempts so far this season.
Clamping down on Watson
Even if New England opts for a more conservative approach on defense, Love still has the arm and the weapons to pile on points — especially when targeting Christian Watson (42 catches, 708 yards, six touchdowns), Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four touchdowns) and Tucker Kraft (35 catches, 350 yards, three touchdowns).
Granted, the Patriots have a potential trump card that could snuff out one of Love’s top targets — so long as Christian Gonzalez is up to the task of blanketing Watson for most of the evening in Foxborough.
The league’s highest-paid corner had a strong start to the year, limiting star wideouts like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf in one-on-one matchups.
But since returning from a shoulder injury last month, Gonzalez has been a bit quieter — recording zero pass breakouts over his last three games while also surrendering three catches to a Miami team that doesn’t exactly boast an elite pass-catching corps.
More is needed from Gonzalez, who could deliver quite a statement if he shuts down Watson and forces Love to direct his targets elsewhere for a majority of Sunday’s game.
A bounce back from Andy Borregales
The Patriots are going to have to capitalize on every opportunity to put up points, especially against a Packers team that can score at a high rate.
While New England managed to get back on track last weekend against a 1-6 Dolphins team, they can’t afford those same lapses in execution against Green Bay — especially on special teams.
Patriots second-year kicker Andy Borregales had a game to forget in Miami, missing on a 40-yard field goal attempt that dropped his field goal percentage down to 76.9 percent so far this year. All three of his missed kicks this year have come from 40 yards or less.
The Patriots need more from Borregales moving forward, especially with more daunting matchups on the horizon.
But Patriots special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer also didn’t seem concerned about his kicker while speaking to reporters on Thursday.
“I never waver on his confidence at all,” Springer said of Borregales. “He’s very level-headed, never too high, never too low. But we all, like I said, we’re all held to a standard. We all got to go do our job when our job’s called. And in the NFL, man, you’re held to a very fine line of failure because it’s just a very competitive league.
“So you just got to be on it when your name’s called. And that’s what I’m going to challenge him. And to all of us, right, we’ve always got to up our standards, especially as we get later in the season. And these kicks are going to matter more and more each game. So, we got to make sure we make them.”
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