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The health care, higher education, and construction industries are most vulnerable to the declining immigration population, the report says.
Activists rally outside the Supreme Court to show solidarity with TPS holders. The health care sector, which relies heavily on a workforce comprised of many TPS holders, faces challenges amid the pending court case on TPS, a new report revealed. Tal Kopan/The Boston Globe
Massachusetts will need at least 60,000 new immigrants each year through 2030 to maintain its working-age population and prevent a labor-force decline, according to a new report by Boston Indicators and MassInc Policy Center.
“We are people who come here to make the country move forward,” Carline Desire, executive director of the Association of Haitian Women in Boston, told Boston.com. “It’s not about abusing the system here — it’s about how do we contribute to take care of ourselves [and] take care of our people.”
The report, released Thursday, warns that declining immigration could contribute to slower economic growth and worsening labor shortages across key industries, including health care, higher education, and construction.
Researchers cited an aging workforce, the number of residents moving out of the state, and slowing immigration as factors creating a potential worker shortage in the years ahead.
Immigrants already play a significant role in the state’s economy, making up roughly one-quarter of the state’s labor force. In 2024, immigrants had an estimated $50.5 billion in spending power and contributed about $7.4 billion in state and local taxes, according to the report.
To estimate future workforce needs, Boston Indicators and MassInc analyzed trends in labor-force aging, population growth, domestic migration, and newcomer arrivals.
Researchers estimate Massachusetts loses roughly 29,000 workers each year as residents retire or move out of the state. Because not all immigrants are of working age or participate in the labor force, replacing those losses would require between 60,000 and 64,000 new immigrant arrivals annually through 2030, according to the report.
Massachusetts could receive roughly 29,000 net international migrants in 2026, less than half the number needed to maintain the state’s current labor-force size, the report estimates.
At the national level, immigration is expected to decline significantly from recent highs. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates immigration could fall nearly 90 percent from its 2024 peak by mid-2026, while separate estimates from the Brookings Institution suggest the U.S. could experience a net loss of nearly 1 million immigrants by the end of the year, the report cited.
Researchers also pointed to increased federal immigration enforcement efforts under the Trump administration, including Operation Patriot 1 and Operation Patriot 2, which resulted in nearly 3,000 arrests in Massachusetts. Many of those arrested were immigrants from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
“While conditions are changing quickly, and we are less than a year and a half into the second Trump term, national and state data already show compounding declines in immigration flows,” the report states.
The report identifies health care, higher education and research, and construction as among the industries most vulnerable to declining immigration.
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Health care providers may face particular challenges, as immigrants make up a significant share of that workforce, the report notes.
According to the Massachusetts Senior Care Association, 40 percent of nursing facility workers in Massachusetts are foreign-born, including roughly 2,000 frontline workers with Haitian Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
TPS allows people from countries experiencing armed conflict, environmental disasters, or other extraordinary conditions to live and work legally in the U.S. The report highlights concerns that changes to the program could further strain the state’s health care workforce.
A pending Supreme Court decision could determine whether the Trump administration can move forward with efforts to dismantle the program. In Massachusetts, ending TPS protections for Haitians could impact roughly 45,000 residents who depend on the program to live and work in the U.S.
Nursing homes may be especially vulnerable because they already operate with narrow margins and chronic staffing shortages. Nursing facilities statewide currently face direct-care vacancy rates of approximately 13 percent, according to the report.
Last month, Sens. Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley released a report examining the potential impact of ending TPS protections for Haitians immigrants on the health care system. The lawmakers argued that terminating the program would worsen workforce shortages and limit access to care.
“If the Trump administration ends legal protections for Haitian workers, everyone will be worse off,” Warren said in a statement to Boston.com. “The health care system is already strained from significant federal budget cuts, and this cruel decision would put patient care at risk nationwide. We must keep fighting back.”
According to the lawmakers’ report, members of LeadingAge reported that uncertainty surrounding immigration status is already affecting providers, as some workers lose authorizations to work while others leave positions early due to concerns about their future legal status.
Desire said Haitian immigrants have become an increasingly important part of the state’s health care workforce, serving as certified nursing assistants, managers, administrative staff, and home health care workers.
Desire said nursing homes and hospitals are already struggling to hire workers, and further losses could increase workloads, contribute to burnout, and affect patient care.
“If they were to lose [TPS workers], things could get really difficult for the nursing homes,” said Desire, who has family members working in the health care industry.
She said many Haitian immigrants affected by TPS have lived in the U.S. for decades and have built lives, careers, and families in Massachusetts.
“We have an amazing workforce when it comes to Haitian people,” Desire said. “They are hard workers. They respect people. They do what they need to do. And they are team players.”
Desire said immigrants contribute far beyond the health care sector, filling essential jobs in schools, transportation systems, and small businesses across the state.
“They end up contributing a lot more than people think,” she said. “I think whether it be the jobs that they hold, whether it be the taxes that they pay, and so many other things, they are extremely important to the Massachusetts economy today.”
International students, immigrant workers bolster education
Boston Indicators and MassInc’s report also highlights immigrants’ role in Massachusetts’ higher education sector.
Massachusetts has the largest international student population in the nation in terms of total high-education enrollment and the fourth-largest international student population overall, behind California, New York, and Texas, the report says.
Researchers noted that international students contribute to the state’s economy through tuition payments and spending on housing, food, transportation, and other local services.
Desire said immigrants also support schools in less visible but essential roles, including as bus drivers, cafeteria workers, and aides who support students with disabilities.
Construction industry vulnerable to immigration shortages
Immigrant workers play a critical role in building new housing in a state already grappling with a severe housing shortage, according to the report.
Boston Indicators and MassInc interviewed homebuilders, who described growing workforce instability and project delays tied in part to concerns about heightened immigration enforcement activity.
“While projects have not fully shut down due to the immigration crackdown, employers repeatedly warned that gradual labor force erosion can lead to delays and added costs that compound over time, particularly when combined with high interest rates and rising materials costs,” the report states.
An Uncertain Future: How the Immigration Crackdown Threatens Massachusetts’ Labor Force by samantha.genzer
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