Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has unloaded on the AUKUS agreement during a presentation in London, telling his UK audience that their own naval shipbuilding and submarine industry is in “absolute disarray”.
Appearing at the leading international affairs think tank Chatham House, Mr Turnbull has also predicted China will not launch a military invasion of Taiwan, with President Xi Jinping instead hoping to takeover the island “without fighting”.
During a wide-ranging discussion on foreign policy and Australia’s role in the world, the one-time Liberal leader who left politics in 2018 was asked about his concerns towards the AUKUS deal which was unveiled by his successor Scott Morrison in 2021.
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Under AUKUS, Australia is expected to acquire at least three Virginia-class boats from the United States in the 2030s which will operate from Perth’s HMAS Stirling ahead of the arrival of a new fleet known as SSN-AUKUS being delivered with the UK in the 2040s.
To help ensure the delivery of the Virginia-class and SSN-AUKUS boats, Australian taxpayers are providing billions of dollars to the United States and United Kingdom to improve their domestic submarine building capacity.
“I worry we won’t get any submarines. It’s a submarine deal with no submarines,” Mr Turnbull told the Royal Institute of International Affairs, describing AUKUS as a “really stupid deal”.
“The UK ship building industry, particularly the submarine industry is in absolute disarray,” he warned.
“It’s a great deal for the UK. Why? Because they get lots of money from Australia so essentially, I think is a huge wealth transfer from the Australian government to the US and the UK.”
“America’s getting a base. We could argue that’s good for our security, you could argue it’s not. The UK is getting lots of lovely money. Again, what I’m saying about the problems with the UK submarine industrial base is not controversial.”
Last month British MPs warned that the UK’s contribution towards delivering the massive AUKUS nuclear submarine project was falling behind, highlighting “shortfalls or delays in funding”.
Although the Labour chaired House of Commons defence committee was broadly supportive of AUKUS, it also “laid bare the scale of the endeavour that will be required to deliver it”.
“For the UK, delivering SSN-AUKUS will be a lengthy and complex undertaking requiring a sustained financial commitment from government across several electoral cycles,” the British report warned.
Mr Turnbull also predicted the US would not be able to reach the goal of producing at least two new submarines a year by the 2030s, a milestone needed before it would be prepared to transfer any of its existing Virginia-class boats to Australia. “You’re talking about a vertical take-off which of course isn’t going to happen. So, I don’t think we’ll get any Virginias. I don’t think we can complain because the Americans will say, ‘We’ve been completely upfront with you’.”
In 2021 former Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled the AUKUS partnership with his then British and US counterparts after cancelling a French project favoured by Mr Turnbull, to replace Australia’s ageing Collins-class submarines.
China has consistently attacked the AUKUS partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, which was designed to counter Beijing’s growing military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
When asked about the prospect of conflict involving China, Mr Turnbull noted that the US had historically been “very concerned” to protect Taiwan but didn’t see any imminent threat to Australia.
“Look, I don’t see China invading Australia for a start. I’m not lying awake at night worried about you know, some sort of kinetic attack from China”.
“Ten years on, is China in a better position to forcibly take Taiwan than it was? Yeah. No, question. No one would argue with that. Is it likely to? No, I don’t think it is.”
“My view is that (Chinese President) Xi Jinping wants to reunite Taiwan with the mainland without force. He wants to win without fighting and I think that is quite feasible”.
“China’s military capabilities have been considerably enhanced, uh, you know, through their investment. They now have a navy that is bigger than that of the United States. They’ve got a ship building industry that is several hundred times bigger than the United States.”
