New England Patriots
Sharp Football Analysis has the Patriots with the 12th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.
The Patriots’ full schedule will be announced on Thursday. AP Photo/Garrett W. Ellwood
When it comes to bracing for some regression for the Patriots during the 2026 season, most of those fears stem from an expected tougher road back to the playoffs.
The 2025 Patriots might have exceeded plenty of expectations under the leadership of Mike Vrabel and the growth of Drake Maye into a legitimate MVP candidate.
But, New England also benefited from a light schedule — with the Patriots kicking over several tomato cans en route to a 14-3 record.
Beyond the Patriots putting the rest of the league on notice with their surprising Super Bowl run, New England will face a daunting slate of opponents in 2026, in large part due to their status as the reigning AFC East champions.
For most of the offseason, the writing was on the wall that New England was going to be saddled with one of the toughest schedules in the league, with the Patriots set to battle against eight teams that made the playoffs the previous year.
While the NFL won’t announce full schedules for the 2026 season until Thursday, we at least know who the Patriots will play next season:
Home
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
- Denver Broncos
- Green Bay Packers
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Minnesota Vikings
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Away
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Chicago Bears
- Detroit Lions
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Jacksonville Jaguars
But, after some of the dust has settled during another busy NFL offseason, could the Patriots’ once-imposing slate of games actually be a bit easier than initially projected?
Sharp Football Analysis seems to think so.
As noted by Jacob Robinson of The Athletic on the publication’s NFL newsletter, the Patriots are projected to have a favorable — if not pedestrian — schedule next season when factoring in projected win totals and the quality of competition they’re set to face.
The Patriots’ 2026 schedule isn’t going to be as easy as last year.
But based on projected win totals, it’s still on the easier side compared to the rest of the league. (via @TheAthleticNFL newsletter) pic.twitter.com/YXtwqSdmzp
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) May 11, 2026
Those strength-of-schedule rankings were calculated by Sharp Football Analysis — which has the Patriots ranked with the 12th-easiest schedule in the league entering the 2026 campaign.
Sharp has the Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets with the five easiest schedules in 2026, while the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Rams have the five toughest schedules.
According to Sharp, just two of the eight teams with the toughest 2025 schedules made the playoffs: the Texans and Rams.
As AFC East champions, the Patriots are now scheduled to face several 2025 division champs next fall — including the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks beat the Patriots in Super Bowl LX and are once again expected to be a top contender in 2026, while the Jags won 14 games last year.
Along with two difficult divisional battles with Josh Allen and the Bills, the Patriots will take on both the AFC West and the NFC North in 2026, which will include a few more daunting opponents like the Broncos, Packers, Bears, Lions, Chargers, and Chiefs.
However, matchups against expected cellar-dwelling opponents like the Jets (twice), Dolphins (twice), and Raiders might have helped New England’s strength-of-schedule metrics entering a new season of football.
Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.
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