New England Patriots
Experts are tabbing New England to have a worse record than its 14-3 mark last season.
The general consensus among experts is a 10-7 regular-season record for the Patriots. AP Photo/Charles Krupa
May 15, 2026 | 6:49 PM
5 minutes to read
All 32 NFL teams released their respective schedules for the 2026 season, and the New England Patriots have a doozy of a slate ahead of them.
The Patriots had perhaps one of the easiest schedules in 2025, in which they finished with a 14-3 record. They won the AFC and ultimately fell to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, their first appearance since the 2018 season.
New England’s success in turn handed them a formidable regular-season schedule for 2026. You can find the Patriots’ full slate with opponents and times here, as well as analysis here.
Given the opponents New England will be tasked with, including Seattle, the Denver Broncos (who the Patriots defeated in the AFC Championship game), and the Chicago Bears, to name a few, it’s safe to assume the reigning AFC champs will finish with fewer wins than last year.
That’s precisely what experts are predicting following the team’s schedule release.
Here are some of their final 2026 Patriots record predictions:
Chad Graff has the Patriots winning double-digit games and a second-place AFC East finish behind the Buffalo Bills.
Graff believes New England’s “toughest stretch” will be Weeks 12-15 when it faces the Los Angeles Chargers, Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and Kansas City Chiefs.
“A year ago, the team’s schedule was a hot topic after a plethora of easy games,” he wrote. “But it’ll be hard to make that argument amid this brutal stretch of four matchups.”
Graff said the Patriots made several welcome additions over the offseason coming off a brutal Super Bowl loss, but it won’t translate to more wins.
“I do think the Patriots are a better football team than they were the day they walked off the field in Santa Clara after the Super Bowl. But they benefited a year ago from a historically easy schedule and relative good fortune with keeping players healthy,” he said. “Neither is likely to repeat.
“So even while the Patriots may be a better team in 2026 with a better chance of winning the Super Bowl, it’s highly likely that they finish the regular season with a worse record than the 14-3 mark of a year ago.”
Mike Clay tabbed the Patriots to secure 10 victories based on his projected win probabilities in each contest.
Clay gave New England a measly 32 percent chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 1 while giving the franchise a 93 percent chance of defeating the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
ESPN ranked the Patriots’ strength of schedule at 21 as one of the more difficult slates.
Mike Reiss pointed out the top-heavy road games New England will play to start the season as his largest takeaway.
“The Patriots were ‘road warriors’ last season as the only team to win every game away from home, and the NFL amped up the challenge for them to duplicate that feat in 2026 with the team having seven of its first 11 games on the road,” he wrote. “Three of the first four games are away from home (all against playoff teams from last season). And of the Patriots’ five primetime games, four are on the road.”
Henry McKenna similarly predicted the Patriots to pull off 10 regular-season wins.
“It’s actually rare for a Super Bowl loser to miss the playoffs altogether, and I don’t think that’ll happen here — not as the Patriots continued to invest in their weakness on offense and built even more depth to their defense,” McKenna said.
FOX explained New England made several welcome additions to help bolster different areas of its roster, including Alijah Vera-Tucker in the trenches and wide receiver Romeo Doubs.
The platform noted a potential looming A.J. Brown trade, which could give the team more wins on paper.
“New England’s biggest move this offseason might not have happened yet, though. The Patriots have been widely linked to Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is rumored to be traded after June 1. Such a move would give Drake Maye a clear No. 1 wide receiver as he looks to build upon his MVP runner-up campaign from 2025.”
Karen Guregian went the 10-7 route, too.
Guregian doesn’t think New England will have more than a two-game win streak at any point in the year.
She has the team falling to Seattle (Week 1), Buffalo (Week 4), Chicago (Week 7), Detroit (Week 10), L.A. Chargers (Week 12), Kansas City (Week 15), and Denver (Week 17).
Phil Perry landed at a 10-7 record for the Patriots, as well. He predicted the team would squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card spot.
Perry tabbed New England to beat the Detroit Lions in Munich, Germany, in Week 10.
He highlighted five uber-important games on New England’s schedule that could make or break its ability to compete in the postseason for the second season in a row.
“I think there are some really key games here,” Perry said. “I’m thinking Jacksonville. I’m thinking Chicago. I’m thinking Green Bay. I’m thinking Detroit. I’m thinking L.A. Chargers. All five of those teams are difficult matchups, but they’re all games that the Patriots could very realistically win.
“I’m not saying they will sweep them, but if you can come out of those five with a winning record, you’re a playoff team in my opinion.”
Brian Hines gave the most optimistic Patriots record prediction at 12-5.
His projected five losses are as follows:
Week 1 at Seattle
Week 4 at Buffalo
Week 7 at Chicago
Week 9 vs. Green Bay
Week 12 at Los Angeles Chargers
Hines’s 12-win prediction is just two fewer than New England’s 14 wins in 2025.
Jordy McElroy has the Patriots doing pretty well for themselves with 11 wins.
He predicted New England to beat the Seahawks in Week 1, which is an interesting pick given the Patriots’ early underdog status in that game.
McElroy noted the team’s tricky schedule of opponents, but said they will be “much better” compared to last season’s Super Bowl-competing squad.
“The Patriots will be a much better team in 2026, but they’ll take a step back in the win category due to a significantly harder schedule,” he wrote. “However, they will still be in the thick of things when it comes to competing with the Bills for the AFC East division title and making it to the playoffs. Anything can happen once a team makes it to the postseason, as the Patriots showed last season.”
Matt Verderame predicted a just-above-.500 2026 Patriots regular season record at 9-8.
Verderame doesn’t have nearly as positive an outlook as other experts, citing the organization’s muddy offseason off the field in the Mike Vrabel-Dianna Russini fiasco. He also cited the team’s difficult schedule coming off a much easier 2025 slate.
“New England made a shocking Super Bowl appearance last year, but reality might come hard this year,” he wrote. “Putting aside the off-field drama that has engulfed the organization this offseason, the Patriots are also going from one of the league’s easiest schedules over the past 30 years to a docket that includes a whopping five road games against 2025 playoff teams, along with trips to Kansas City and Detroit.”
Kaley Brown
Kaley Brown is a sports producer for Boston.com, where she covers the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox.
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