Source: AgriView
As one of the strongest El Niño events in decades threatens to disrupt global weather patterns, millions of people across Africa, the Caribbean and other vulnerable regions face growing concerns over food security, water shortages and extreme rainfall. But there is still time to prepare.
Imagine planting your crops at the beginning of the rainy season, only to watch the weeks pass without enough rain. The soil dries, seedlings struggle, and the harvest your family depends on becomes uncertain.
Thousands of miles away, another family faces the opposite problem. Rain falls relentlessly, roads disappear beneath floodwater, and parents worry about getting their children safely to school.
Different continents. Different emergencies. Yet both situations could be influenced by the same powerful climate phenomenon unfolding thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean.
Its name is El Niño, and scientists warn that the 2026 event could become one of the strongest ever recorded. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Pacific Ocean temperatures in a key monitoring region are forecast to reach approximately 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, with conditions expected to peak around December.
That does not mean global temperatures will rise by 3.8°C. It means unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific could disrupt weather patterns across large parts of the world.
For vulnerable communities, the consequences could extend far beyond the weather forecast, and this is why El Niño 2026 is raising global concerns.
What Is El Niño and Why Is It Happening?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its name, Spanish for “the boy” or “the Christ Child,” originated with Peruvian fishermen who noticed warming coastal waters around Christmas, sometimes accompanied by declining fish catches.
El Niño forms part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate cycle with three phases: El Niño, the warmer phase; La Niña, the cooler phase; and a neutral phase. The cycle typically changes every two to seven years.
Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface waters westward toward Asia. During El Niño, those winds weaken, allowing warmer water to spread eastward. This movement changes atmospheric circulation, affecting rainfall, temperatures and weather conditions far beyond the Pacific.
How El Niño 2026 Could Affect African Countries
Africa is particularly vulnerable because millions of households depend on rain-fed agriculture, while many communities have limited financial protection against crop losses and extreme weather.
In Southern Africa, parts of the region face an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall during the agricultural season. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique could face additional pressure on farming communities, water supplies and livestock, although conditions will differ within and between countries. A failed rainy season can mean more than a poor harvest. It can reduce household income, increase food prices and make it harder for families to afford everyday necessities.
Source: WFP
In East Africa, the concern is different. Parts of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and neighboring areas may experience wetter conditions during certain seasonal rainfall periods, increasing the need to prepare for possible flooding. Heavy rainfall can damage roads, destroy crops, contaminate drinking water and displace families.
Other countries, including Nigeria, Cameroon, Sudan and South Sudan, are among those identified for priority humanitarian preparedness. Their risks must be assessed using national and regional forecasts rather than assuming a single continent-wide weather pattern.
In June 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) launched a $202 million appeal to help protect approximately 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries from anticipated extreme weather. Twelve of those priority countries are in Africa.
The appeal reflects a growing recognition that preparing communities before disasters strike can save lives and protect livelihoods.
El Niño’s influence, however, also reaches the Caribbean, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
Parts of the northern Caribbean could experience above-normal rainfall, while sections of the southern Caribbean and Central America face increased drought risks.
In Southeast Asia, rainfall shortages and higher temperatures can threaten agriculture, strain water supplies and increase wildfire risks. These disruptions matter globally because food production, international trade and supply chains connect countries across continents.
When agricultural production suffers in one region, the effects can eventually reach consumers elsewhere through shortages and higher prices.
How African Countries Can Prepare for El Niño 2026
The most important lesson from previous El Niño events is that preparation must begin before a disaster becomes visible.
For countries facing drought risks, governments should work with agricultural agencies to provide farmers with timely seasonal forecasts, drought-tolerant seeds, water-storage support and practical planting advice.
Farmers can reduce exposure by diversifying crops, improving soil moisture retention and adjusting planting schedules according to local agricultural guidance.
Where flooding is a concern, authorities should prioritize clearing drainage systems, identifying vulnerable settlements, strengthening flood-warning systems and preparing safe evacuation routes. Communities need warnings they can understand and act upon, including information delivered through radio, mobile phones, local languages and trusted community organizations.
Health authorities should prepare for possible increases in waterborne and mosquito-borne diseases by protecting drinking-water supplies, strengthening disease surveillance and ensuring essential medical supplies are available.
Governments should also consider emergency food reserves, livestock protection, backup electricity arrangements and targeted assistance for vulnerable households.
Source: WFP
These measures require funding, coordination and accountability. A forecast is only useful when the people most at risk receive the information early enough to act.
However, Preparation is not solely the responsibility of governments.
Households in drought-prone areas can inspect water-storage containers, reduce unnecessary water waste and plan for possible interruptions to supply, while families living in flood-prone communities should identify safe routes, protect important documents and prepare basic emergency supplies.
Parents should know how schools communicate closures and emergencies. Households with elderly relatives, young children or people with disabilities may need additional evacuation arrangements.
Community associations, churches, cooperatives and African diaspora organizations can also play a role by sharing reliable forecasts, supporting local preparedness initiatives and connecting vulnerable families with assistance.
Above all, people should follow updates from their national meteorological agencies rather than relying on alarming global headlines alone.
El Niño 2026 is a reminder that events unfolding in one ocean can influence the lives of people thousands of miles away. We cannot prevent El Niño from occurring. We can, however, reduce the suffering it causes by acting on reliable forecasts, protecting vulnerable communities and investing in preparedness.
The question is no longer whether the world knows El Niño is coming. It is whether governments and communities will act before its consequences become another humanitarian emergency.
Nkeiruka Duru is an Administrative Officer at FunTimes Magazine. She provides administrative support, strong organizational, research, and communication responsibilities with precision.
Passionate about efficiency and collaboration, she contributes to building systems that allow creativity and innovation within the organization to thrive.
Nkeiruka has a varied background in Science, Tech. and Media.
Aside from work, she is a singer, loves traveling and volunteering.
