In times past a by-election in a State seat would hold little interest elsewhere.
And that would especially be the case in Canberra, which sees itself as the main game.
In usual times the nation’s capital would dismiss as irrelevant the by-election on Saturday in the outer-Perth electorate of Secret Harbour.
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In usual times Labor, which holds the seat by just under 12 per cent, would have run a standard campaign against its main opponent — the Liberals — and a few fringe parties and the usual smattering of single-interest candidates and independents.
There might have been a small swing against the Government as per usual in a by-election — but nothing too outrageous and the Cook Labor Government would have continued on its merry way.
Not this time. Times are so very different.
Simmering discontent over a range of issues has created a volatile political atmosphere which has upended the usual Labor versus Liberal contest.
Unhappy with the status quo, many voters have gone looking for something else.
Something different to the usual spin and glibness.
There is a yearning for authenticity. And plain-speaking.
And many have settled on Pauline Hanson and One Nation.
Political door-knockers in Secret Harbour have reported that the names coming up regularly were Senator Hanson — seen positively — and Anthony Albanese, who was not viewed favourably.
It has shaped up as Labor versus Hanson, with the Liberals trailing behind, almost irrelevant apart from the impact of its preference flows, which will favour One Nation.
A Labor win will be seen as a blow to the One Nation surge.
A One Nation win will likely have a snowball effect.
The outcome also has the potential to redefine the way Labor and the Coalition deal with One Nation.
Federal Labor, clearly aware of the electorate’s concern about immigration, and spooked by the flow-through into support for One Nation’s hard-line, has tried to come up with a formula and so far failed.
The issue is now causing growing tensions inside Federal Cabinet about the best path forward.
The Coalition parties are also grappling with how to deal with One Nation.
Do they fight One Nation?
Do they try to work with the party?
Do they look at how Mr Albanese handles the Greens as a model?
It should not escape the Coalition that Mr Albanese often attacks the Greens and their policies.
And yet when it suits Labor at election time, they harvest Greens preferences.
But Labor is not accused of endorsing the Greens.
Could the Coalition construct the same model on the other side of the contest?
To do so it would have to make loud noises about not endorsing One Nation.
But then harvest One Nation preferences where it can.
The indications are that One Nation may triumph on Saturday.
But also that it is going to be tight.
Of course nothing is ever certain in politics.
And the size of the field is a complicating factor.
But one certainty is the ramifications of Secret Harbour will be anything but secret.




