The Farrer by-election on Saturday will have an enormous impact on the political landscape in Canberra, whatever the outcome.
The regional NSW seat is the first electoral test for both new Coalition party leaders, Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan.
It is also the first Federal test of One Nation since polling earlier this year began to find support for the party had surged.
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The by-election has been caused by the resignation of former Liberal Leader Sussan Ley from Parliament after she was defeated for job by Mr Taylor.
The seat has been held by the Liberal and National parties since its creation in 1949, including by former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Tim Fischer.
Labor has chosen not to contest the by-election.
Most interest centres on the contest between Liberal Raissa Butkowski, One Nation’s David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe — who finished second to Ms Ley at the 2025 Federal election — and The Nationals’ Brad Robertson.
A Newspoll conducted March 12-18 had One Nation at 22 per cent and the Liberal Party on 16 per cent.
If Mr Farley wins it will be a significant moment in Australia’s political history, electing a One Nation candidate to Federal Parliament’s Lower House for the first time since Pauline Hanson founded the party almost 30 years ago.
A victory for Ms Milthorpe would show the appeal of independents remains strong.
Opinion polls have been saying many voters are angry and fed up with the two-party system which they don’t believe is delivering for them and they want to give someone else a go.
They are angry about the cost of living. Angry about housing affordability, which many link to what they see as excessive immigration, and concerned about our fraying social fabric.
After years on the political outer, Senator Hanson finds herself back in the spotlight.
A key part of her message has been concern about Australia’s immigration system, which she has argued is “broken”, with a surging population overwhelming housing and essential services and home ownership slipping out of reach.
Mr Taylor has moved to plant his flag on similar ground with a new immigration policy.
The first part laid out a plan to make a pledge to abide by Australian values legally enforceable, reintroduce temporary protection visas, make learning English an obligation for permanent visa holders, crack down on radical Islamic preachers and deport visa overstayers.
He launched it in April with a declaration that Australians were “fed up with politically-correct preaching on immigration”.
On Friday a media report said the second part of the policy would cap net overseas migration in line with new home completions under a plan that tied the number of people coming into Australia with available housing supply.
The voters of Farrer will deliver a message on Saturday that will echo up and down the corridors of Parliament House in Canberra.
