Game #3 – Patriots (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1), 1 p.m.
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
TV: CBS-4. Spero Dedes (play-by-play), Adam Archuleta (color analyst), Aditi Kinkhabwala (sidelines).
Radio: 98.5-FM The SportsHub in Boston (Bob Socci and Scott Zolak). **Bedard will be on the postgame show approximately one hour after the game.**
Online: Live Box | Patriots media notes | Jaguars media notes | Flipcard
Latest Line: Jaguars -3, 45.5 o/u
09/26 Elevated S Mike Brown and DT Jeremiah Pharms Jr. to the active roster from the practice squad.
09/25 Placed rookie LB Quintayvious Hutchins on injured reserve.
09/23 Placed S Dell Pettus on injured reserve; signed LB Jose Ramirez to the 53-man roster; signed LB Benton Whitley to the practice squad.
09/22 Placed OL Mike Onwenu on injured reserve; signed P Mitch Wishnowsky to the 53-man roster; signed TE Tanner Connor to the practice squad.
Elevated LB Jalen McLeod to the active roster from the practice squad.
BEDARD’S TOP MATCHUPS, KEYS TO THE GAME AND GAME PICK
• CB Marcus Jones (and Christian Gonzalez) vs. WR Parker Washington: Washington is their primary slot and is a terrific player. If the Jaguars play a bunch of TEs, I expect Gonzalez to take Washington, as well as on money downs.
• DE Gabe Jacas vs. LT Anton Harrison: This could be the rookie’s coming out party against an average left tackle.
• DTs Milton Williams & Christian Barmore vs. LG Emmanuel Pregnon, RG Ezra Cleveland: Both are tied for the team lead in pressures allowed (5) and the interior is the weakest part of the Jaguars’ line. Time for the big fellas to eat and dominate.
• Edge Dennis Gardeck vs. QB Drake Maye: Gardeck is 32, undersized (6-0, 232) and out of a college named Sioux Falls, but he’s smart and fast, and has a knack for effing up plays, and they line him up all over the place. Had one coach compare Gardeck to Tedy Bruschi because of his smarts and ability to just mess up plays.
• RG Greg Van Roten vs. DT Arik Armstead: Van Roten played poorly last week in his debut. He’s going to need to be a lot better against the long Armstead, who isn’t much of a pass rusher anymore, but he can push the pocket and mess up run-blocking assignments.
• WR Kyle Williams vs. CB Montaric Brown: The Jaguars are one of the league’s worst defenses at giving up explosive plays, and Brown is the worst of the cornerbacks. He plays both sides, but a slight majority of his snaps have come on the left side. Time for Maye to uncork some deep shots to Williams.
- Take care of the football, Drake.
- Make Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable so he throws you the ball. He will.
- Take away Parker Washington on money downs.
- Don’t let capable RB Bhayshul Tuten get going.
- The Jaguars’ defense is fast, but not very smart. Patriots should be able to hit some traps, screens and trick plays.
- Air it out against a subpar secondary.
Season: 2-0 straight up, 1-1 spread.
Line: Jaguars -3. O/U: 45.5.
• Patriots’ coverage counters the Jaguars being 6th in EPA/DB and 3rd in explosive play %.
• Jaguars are 7th in 11 personnel EPA. Patriots’ defense is first.
• Patriots’ defense is 3rd in blitz EPA. Jaguars’ offense is 28th against the blitz. And Lawrence is 15th in pressure EPA.
• Jaguars’ defense is 26th in explosive play percentage.
• Jaguars’ defense is 32nd in middle-of-the-field EPA.
Things/stats I don’t like:
• Jaguars run a lot of 12 and 13 personnel, which usually requires the defense to answer with base defense. The Patriots are the No. 1 defense in the league at usage and EPA in nickel. Can the Patriots play base if they have to? They are 28th in EPAs against TEs.
• Jags are 7th in EPA/rush. Patriots’ defense is 14th.
* Patriots’ defense is 30th against 13 personnel.
• Patriots’ defense is 25th against playaction, and 30th under center. Jags’ offense is 11th and 7th.
• Patriots’ offense is 31st in EPA under center and with playaction. Jaguars’ defense is 5th and 2nd.
• I really don’t like a mostly sunny forecast.
• Oh, and there are a bunch of bad Jaguars home stats:
– Aim to win their sixth consecutive game at home. The Jaguars have outscored opponents 194-62 (+132) in their last five games at EverBank Stadium. Jacksonville has won each game by 17 points or more.
– Aim for their sixth straight game scoring at least 30 points at home.
– Aim for sixth straight home game holding an opponent to 20 points or less.
– Aim for sixth consecutive home game with at least one takeaway.
That’s no joke. Either is this:
The Jaguars have won nine of their last 10 regular-season games dating back to Week 11 of 2025, tying the Seattle Seahawks for the most wins in the NFL in that span. The Jaguars own a +170 point differential over that 10-game span, the best scoring margin in the NFL by over 50 points.
If I felt better about where the offense and Drake Maye were entering this game, I would probably pick them. I think the defense matches up well, and I think there are weaknesses that Maye can exploit against this defense. Plus, they started some good drives against a good Steelers defense, but just couldn’t finish. However, I need to see it happen before I pick the Patriots. I do think this could be Maye’s coming-out party, but I’m not ready to pick it. If I had to guess, I think the Patriots trail early but Maye rallies them. However, I think the heat gets to the Patriots, and the Jaguars have been a buzzsaw in that stadium.
