Australia is making its biggest push yet for high-speed rail, with a $90 billion plan to connect Newcastle and Sydney in just one hour, but experts warn the ambitious project faces massive challenges that could see it fail like every proposal before it.
The nation’s newest passenger trains are capable of speeds of 160km/h but are limited to 130km/h — and sometimes just 80 between NSW’s biggest cities — because of tracks that date back to the 19th century.
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“They were designed in Victorian days,” said Tim Parker of the High Speed Rail Authority. “It’s got gradients, it’s got turns and curves. It doesn’t matter what train you put on that alignment, you’ll never do much better.”
Meanwhile, around 30 countries now have high-speed rail, with Japan recently marking 60 years of its Shinkansen bullet train, which travels at up to 320km/h. Europe is led by Spain’s 4000km network, while China claims a staggering 50,000km.
In Australia, high-speed rail has been proposed many times since the 1980s, then postponed as too costly and not viable.
The latest plan would cut the current two-and-a-half hour journey between Newcastle and Sydney to just one hour, then extend out to Western Sydney Airport. It would take more than a decade to construct for at least $90 billion.
“We see this very much as a regional economic stimulus,” Parker said, predicting it will deliver thousands of new homes and jobs.
“You have to really incentivise Australians to get out of their car. And I think a high-speed train will do that,” one advocate said.
But the challenging terrain means at least 70km of tunnels, making it the most tunnelled high-speed rail line in the world.
“We have more experience with tunnelling, and tunnel boring machines have gotten better. But this is a significant leap,” said Professor David Levinson from the University of Sydney’s School of Civil Engineering.
Professor Levinson warned the cost per kilometre is higher than any other high-speed rail in the world, including California’s troubled project.
The High Speed Rail Authority says it’s learning from overseas experience and has put the system design out to tender, with interest from organisations in 17 nations.
The fastest trains in NSW are capable of 160km/h speeds but often travel at just half that. Credit: 7NEWS
An expanded high-speed network would eventually offer Sydney to Melbourne in four hours and Sydney to Canberra in 90 minutes, but not until around 2060.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese acknowledged the long timeline:
“I will not be the Prime Minister when high-speed rail is finished,” he said earlier this year. “But I am determined to be the Prime Minister who starts it.”
The final decision on whether to proceed will be made in two years.
Right now, the fastest way to travel by train between Sydney and Brisbane takes 14 hours and six minutes. The high-speed rail dream would cut the 900km journey to just four hours.
“Every country that has high speed is looking to expand it,” Parker said, pointing to the success of the Eurostar, where “no one now flies from London to Paris” because the train has become “a game changer.”
But with costs certain and benefits uncertain, Australia’s high-speed rail dream faces its toughest test yet.
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