Extreme weather forecasts are expected to pummel roads, railways, waterways, ports and airports between 2051 and 2080, according to the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Inland Transport: Towards climate resilient transport systems, published by the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE).
“The current extreme heat episode in western Europe has highlighted climate risks and the consequences on transport,” a UNECE spokesperson told UN News.
Some of those consequences are playing out in real time. Heat-related train delays or cancellations in many countries, including Belgium, Denmark, France and the United Kingdom, stem from buckling asphalt, rail deformation, onboard air conditioning failure, malfunctioning traffic lights, river navigation bottlenecks, traffic slowdowns to reduce the kinetic stress on expanded tracks alongside cable and signaling overheating and melting, UNECE said.
Key findings
The report’s main findings show:
- Key risks to transport systems include flooding, high temperatures, reduced snow, ice and permafrost and sea level rise
- Transport infrastructure is projected to have to cope with 10 to 50 more days per year with temperatures above 25°C, with some areas experiencing up to 200 days per year above this threshold, raising risks of pavement deterioration, thermal expansion of bridge joints, rail deformation and wildfires around infrastructure
- Recent estimates show that 71 to 89 per cent of ports globally will be at risk by 2100 from extreme marine storms
- About five million Europeans and the transport infrastructure they rely on may face coastal flooding almost annually by 2100
‘Dramatic consequences’
Economic losses from extreme weather can soar with inaction, the report found.
“Transport systems are vital for the smooth functioning of our societies and economies,” UNECE Executive Secretary Tatiana Molcean said, but “disruptions can have dramatic consequences on communities and come at huge financial cost.”
For instance, during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there were $232 billion in damages, with port-specific damages of $7.5 billion per year and the annual systemic risk to global maritime transport, trade and supply-chains and economic activity estimated as $81 billion and $122 billion, respectively.
Grim projections
The report also had grim projections for the regions, with intense rainfall in areas already affected by extreme events, including the western coast of Norway, the Alps, Balkans, northern Türkiye, parts of Central Asia, coastal British Columbia and the United States east coast.
Such conditions would increase the risks of landslides, embankment failure, drainage overload and infrastructure washouts on road, rail and inland waterway system.
At the same time, heightened disruption risks for railways, including track deformation and signaling overheating, is projected to affect Europe, where 90 per cent of the European E-rail network would be subject to an additional 10 days with temperature above 25°C in the period 2050 to 2080, compared to 1970 to 2000, and exposed to an additional 10 days with temperatures above 32°C.
Adaptation ‘is an imperative’
Adaptation action delivers multiple benefits, including avoiding or reducing economic losses, safeguarding investment, protecting operational continuity and enabling increased productivity, the report stated.
“Because extreme weather events are no longer a future risk but a reality today, adaptation of transport infrastructure is an imperative,” UNECE chief Molcean said.
Indeed, every dollar spent on climate adaptation yields over $10.50 in economic, social and environmental benefits, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI).
Given the worsening climate projections, the report:
- Calls for strengthened adaptation efforts at all levels
- Encourages public and private entities to prioritise climate change adaptation and resilience-building of transport infrastructure
- Underscores the value of adopting an iterative adaptation process based on analysing current challenges, assessing future impacts and designing resilience-increasing measures
- Recommends that policy and legal frameworks are key to boosting resilience, reducing operational risks and mitigating financial losses
Tools to tackle temperature events
The report also maps key inland transport networks and nodes in the region requiring specific attention.
It contains a series of temperature and precipitation projection maps at various thresholds to help government and transport professionals understand changing conditions and foster local-scale analyses of transport system vulnerabilities.
Check out the maps here.
What is actually working?
The new UNECE report also draws on national mitigation strategies underway:
- France: A national adaptation plan and warming trajectory initiative prepares the country for temperature rises of up to +3°C by 2100 and involves a vulnerability assessment of 21,073km of the national road network, alongside the formulation of an adaptation strategy for 3,000 train stations
- Germany: When a 16,000m3 rockfall triggered a seven-week closure of a crucial European freight route, a climate impact analysis of hillslope debris flows and mass movements for the country’s railway network used high-resolution hazard indication maps to evaluate risk exposure and help operators prioritise protective measures
- Portugal: Assessment of climate risks and resilience for the 42km Mondego Mobility System found a new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network that identified adaptation measures for floods, landslides and wildfires, resulting in the implementation of high-temperature resilient pavements and drainage systems designed for 100-year flood flow rates
