The tiny island nation of Curaçao made history in Kansas on Sunday morning, earning their first-ever World Cup point as the smallest country in the competition, doing the Socceroos a remarkable favour in the process.
In just the news all Australian fans needed after a bitter 2-0 defeat to co-hosts America, Curaçao’s, nicknamed The Blue Wave, 0-0 draw with Ecuador has seen Opta Analytics’ World Cup forecast project the Socceroos are now a 92.36 per cent chance of escaping the group.
Even a loss to Paraguay on Friday should be enough to get them to the Round of 32 as one of the top eight best-placed third sides.
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After Saturday’s defeat to the USA, Australia were still in the box seat to earn an automatic place in the knockout stages, needing only a draw to cement second place, while a victory would see them finish outright second in the group on points, and potentially challenge for the top if something extraordinary happened in Turkiye’s final clash against America.
Turkiye were eliminated from the competition on Saturday with a game to play after failing to score a single goal despite producing 64 shots across games against Australia and Paraguay, losing the first 2-0 and the second 1-0, having conceded 64 seconds into the contest.
However, Australia will want to avoid finishing third at all costs as it increases the likelihood of facing European giants France and Germany, whereas a second-place finish in the group could see them play the likes of Mo Salah’s Egypt.
As things stand, only Sweden are more likely to progress from third than Australia but more than half of the groups have only played one game each.
On the flip side, Ecuador’s hopes of progressing have dropped to a dangerously low 31.19 per cent, with the South American country now needing Curaçao to produce a miracle victory over Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) to be any chance even if they were to topple group leaders Germany.
Looking further forward, Australia are currently rated a 39.95 per cent chance of also reaching the Round of 16, as they did by getting out of the Group stages in Qatar in 2022 before going down to eventual champions Argentina.
