Having failed to defeat Iran with bombs, can President Donald Trump salvage something with bribes? After weeks of haggling over how to end the war, he and his Iranian counterpart have signed a short peace memo.
It amounts to the promise of lots and lots of money for Iran, so long as it can satisfy Mr Trump that it has abandoned any plans for a nuclear weapon. That is a huge and unlikely gamble and it leaves the countries of the Middle East with some hard thinking.
The memo ditches many of Mr Trump’s war aims. There will be no regime change; no succour for Iran’s benighted people; no limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles or its support of proxies. Instead the deal focuses on two things. One is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where the foolishness of Mr Trump’s war and the humiliation of his climbdown are laid bare. Before the fighting, vessels had free passage; after the 60 days in this deal, they may well have to pay a fee.
Sign up to The Nightly’s newsletters.
Get the first look at the digital newspaper, curated daily stories and breaking headlines delivered to your inbox.
By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.
The other focus is the nuclear program. The regime has given up almost nothing. Its promise not to get a bomb is old. It will down-blend its stocks of enriched uranium and discuss the rest of its programme, but the issues are complex and Iran is masterful at stringing things along.
And then there are the bribes. Iran can immediately export oil and derivatives. Depending on the talks’ progress, America will unfreeze assets worth tens of billions of dollars, lift sanctions and help create a fund of at least $US300 billion ($420b) for reconstruction and development. Mr Trump is tired of war. If, as planned, American troops depart within 30 days, his ability to use force will be limited.
The regime thus has an unprecedented opportunity to trade nukes for cash and investment. Unlike previous presidents, Mr Trump doesn’t care about democracy. Having weaponised the strait, Iran may now see less value in nuclear bombs. The regime is unpopular at home: it could use the money.
Yet there are many reasons to think this gamble will fail. Iran’s hardline leaders have no reason to trust America. They will expect Israel to sabotage the deal. The regional influence they crave comes from being the foe of the Great Satan. The nuclear program offers prestige and, potentially, protection. Inspectors will struggle to stop them cheating. Iran’s leaders will be tempted to have their yellow cake and eat it.
Israel argued for this war, but it has turned out a bitter disappointment. It fought shoulder to shoulder with the Americans only for Mr Trump to cut it out of the negotiations and undermine its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. That could cost its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, re-election in October. The war was a strategic failure, because Iran remains a threat. Mr Netanyahu tested how far America was prepared to go, and it was not far enough for Israel to prevail. Any successor will need to devise a new security doctrine.
The Gulf countries need to restore their reputations as havens of prosperity in a violent neighbourhood. Prepare for some wishful thinking, but the fact is that Iranian drones and missiles will continue to pose a threat. Pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz will help.
But the Gulf also needs to overhaul its security. Nobody can be sure how willingly America will fight in the future. Some states will look for ways to deter Iran — the United Arab Emirates could seek even closer ties with Israel. Others may attempt to accommodate it. Still others may steer between the two.
Mr Trump should never have begun this war. Once again, he is basing his way out of it on the idea that people will do anything for money. However, the first rule of diplomacy is not to imagine that your opponent thinks as you do.
