Then came the pandemic, and the exodus of New Yorkers escaping quarantine in the city for their summer homes, which then became their primary residences as they rode out the lockdown. Home prices surged—and so did waste production.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it,” Gobler said. “People who are infected with this bacteria have a 20% chance of dying within just 48 hours.”
The result has been a stunning amount of pollution and potential long-term environmental damage. According to the Gobler Lab, increased sewage means increased nitrogen, which can lead to increased algae blooms, which can be toxic. The algae is also food for vibrio, which is potentially deadly to humans when it gets into shellfish or an open wound—though despite Gobler’s dire warnings, it largely hasn’t been.
Koepele, the oysterman, alleges that Gobler has previous when it comes to “splashing very, very hideous headlines out there that are—at the same time—horror stories but clickbait.”
In 2024, Gobler released similar research on the rise of vibrio vulnificus in the area, but tells Vanity Fair that it didn’t create a media firestorm at the time. However, a crop of news stories on flesh-eating bacteria on Long Island’s East End may have damaged the local oyster business that year.
Koepele says Gobler is overstating the risk—and it’s harming the shellfish business.
“It dropped our sales immediately by 30%. It was pretty devastating,” Koepele says. “And 1780137819 once again,” he adds, referencing Gobler’s State of the Bays presentation last month, “flesh-eating virus was in his [slideshow] deck, and he was talking about three instances of deaths back in 2023.”
Koepele has a business interest in downplaying the danger in New York waters. But two of those three deaths did occur on the Connecticut side of the Long Island Sound, not in New York. The New York Times reported in August 2023 that the third death was vibrio-related, though New York governor Kathy Hochul’s office said at the time that “the death in Suffolk County is still being investigated to determine if the bacteria was encountered in New York waters or elsewhere.”
