Boston Bruins
The Bruins had a 58.1 percent chance of snagging Toronto’s first-round pick on Tuesday night.
Don Sweeney and the Bruins missed out on a valuable franchise building block on Tuesday. Photo by Matthew J Lee/Globe staff
May 5, 2026 | 7:56 PM
3 minutes to read
Lady luck wasn’t on the Bruins’ side on Tuesday night.
The Boston Bruins missed out on a prime chance to secure a top-10 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, as the Toronto Maple Leafs retained their own 2026 first-round selection after winning the first overall pick via the NHL Draft Lottery.
Had the results of Tuesday’s lottery pushed Toronto out of the top five, the pick would have conveyed to the Bruins, giving a playoff club in Boston a chance to add another legitimate blue-chip prospect to its already burgeoning pipeline.
As a result of Toronto retaining its own 2026 first-round pick, the Bruins will likely secure an unprotected 2028 first-round pick from Toronto — barring some added complications if Toronto’s 2027 first-round pick is also a top-10 selection.
A 2028 unprotected first-round pick could net Boston another legitimate prospect a few years down the road.
However, Toronto winning the draft lottery — and likely earning the chance to draft Gavin McKenna — is the worst-case scenario for Boston.
Not only does an Atlantic Division rival in Toronto get a legitimate offensive threat to pair with Auston Matthews moving forward, but a Maple Leafs team that was once staring at a long-term rebuild may not necessarily be a lottery team in 2028 by the time Boston has an unprotected first-round pick.
And even if Toronto does falter in the coming years, a prime 2028 first-round pick wouldn’t exactly fit the current timeline of Boston’s existing core if the Bruins are intent on making the most of David Pastrnak’s prime years as he enters his age-30 season in 2026-27.
Boston entered Tuesday’s draft with a 58.1 percent chance of securing Toronto’s pick, with the Leafs holding a 41.9 percent chance of keeping that pick in the top five.
This was Toronto’s draft lottery odds entering Tuesday, per Tankathon.
- No. 1 pick: 8.5 percent (Toronto retains)
- No. 2: 8.6 percent (Toronto retains)
- No. 3: 0.3 percent (Toronto retains)
- No. 4: N/A
- No. 5: 24.5 percent (Toronto retains)
- No. 6: 44 percent (transfers to Boston)
- No. 7: 14.2 percent (transfers to Boston)
Ultimately, the Maple Leafs jumped ahead of the rest of the field, with Penn State star forward McKenna the likely target for Toronto.
Despite some brutal luck on Tuesday, the Bruins still made out well in the initial deal that put a potential 2026 first-round pick within their grasp.
The Maple Leafs initially traded a conditional 2026 first-round pick (top-five protected), Fraser Minten, and a 2025 fourth-round pick to Boston in March 2025 in exchange for Brandon Carlo.
Boston seemingly already won the trade given the potential showcased by the 21-year-old Minten in his first full season in the NHL, with Minten scoring 17 goals and averaging 15:33 of ice time over 82 games with Boston.
At the time, that Toronto 2026 first-round pick appeared destined to land somewhere in the ‘20s — considering that the Maple Leafs were seemingly fixed in a win-now window.
But the 2025-26 season was a downright disaster for the Maple Leafs, with injuries, regression, and the departure of Mitch Marner leading to a complete implosion.
Toronto ultimately closed out the season with a record of 32-36-14 — earning the fifth-best odds at securing the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
Had the Maple Leafs’ pick dropped to No. 6 or No. 7 overall, it would have gone to the Bruins, giving an already retooling roster a prime chance to add to a young crop of prospects headlined by James Hagens, Minten, Dean Letourneau, Marat Khusnutdinov, Will Zellers, and others.
Instead, the Bruins will need to wait a bit longer to see when Toronto’s pick will transfer over to them.
Toronto already traded its 2027 first-round pick to the Flyers last season in exchange for forward Scott Laughton, although there are conditions on that pick if it’s another top-10 selection.
According to terms of the initial Bruins-Leafs trade, that 2027 pick to Philadelphia is top-10 protected.
So if Toronto retained its pick in 2026 and had a top-10 pick in 2027, the Maple Leafs would have the option to award the ’27 first-round pick to either the Bruins or Flyers — with the other team getting an unprotected 2028 first-round pick as a result.
Given Toronto’s hesitancy to help out its longtime Original Six foe, it’d seemingly be a given that the Leafs would choose to hand Boston an unprotected 2028 first-round pick instead of giving them a top-10 selection in 2027.
If Boston wants to opt for a longer-term rebuild, an unprotected 2028 first-round pick from Toronto could yield a strong return if they continue to struggle. But if Boston is trying to cash in now to help out this current core, the Bruins could flip those future first-round picks in order to add more immediate help.
Boston still holds its own 2026 first-round pick, one second-round pick, one third-round pick, three fourth-round picks and one seventh-round pick in this upcoming draft.
Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.
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