While we’re currently in the midst of the shift from summer to winter, Australia’s weather could soon experience another change. Meteorologists are increasingly watching the Pacific for signs of a developing super El Niño, meaning the weather might not look different coming months.
An El Niño is driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn alter atmospheric circulation across the globe. And as you can probably guess, a Super El Niño means the resulting changes in weather are supercharged. During the month of April, we celebrate Earth Month – with Earth Day falling on 22 April. With this in mind, we’re investigating what a super El Niño looks like for our climate and what it could mean for Australian weather in 2026.
What is a super El Niño?
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle driven by warming ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. A “super El Niño” refers to an especially strong version of this, where the sea surface temperature rises well above average, amplifying its impact on global weather systems.
These shifts don’t just stay over the ocean, but ripple on to influence rainfall, temperature and pressure patterns worldwide. It means Australia could soon experience record-breaking weather events.
How this El Niño will affect Australia’s weather
For Australia, El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions, because it weakens the flow of moist air across the Pacific, reducing cloud formation and limiting rainfall.
This often leads to below-average rainfall through winter and spring. In practical terms, this means an unusually dry period is likely as winter transitions into spring.
Additionally, reduced cloud cover usually means higher daytime temperatures, especially across southern Australia during spring and summer. Combined with dry conditions, this increases the likelihood of drought and extends the bushfire season.
If a super El Niño develops, these risks are more likely to intensify, with longer heatwaves and more extreme fire weather.
What it means for different regions
The impacts of El Niño vary across the country.
In northern Australia, it can delay the onset of normal rainfall and reduce the number of tropical cyclones, particularly along Queensland’s coast.
Alpine regions may see shorter, less reliable snow seasons as warming and reduced rainfall take hold. At the same time, southern areas may experience clearer skies, which can lead to colder winter nights and more frequent frost, even as overall average temperatures increase.
How certain is the forecast?
While climate models are pointing towards the development of a super El Niño its exact effects are not guaranteed. Even so, the broader pattern remains consistent that El Niño years tend to be drier and warmer overall.
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Feature image from La Collectionneuse (1967)
