New England Patriots
The Patriots will need to bottle up Chicago’s dynamic run game and limit just how much the Bears control the clock.
A.J. Brown could be poised for a big game against the Bears. Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe
A banged-up Patriots roster will have its work cut out for it Thursday night as Mike Vrabel’s team travels to Chicago for a primetime matchup against the Bears.
There will be no shortage of compelling storylines in this bout between a pair of 4-2 clubs, be it two of the top QBs in the 2024 Draft in Drake Maye and Caleb Williams squaring off or the X’s and O’s chess match between Ben Johnson and Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr.
How can the shorthanded Patriots roll into the Windy City and secure another win? Here are three critical matchups worth following on Thursday:
New England’s defense vs. Chicago’s run game
Caleb Williams has showcased his elite arm strength and scrambling ability throughout his three seasons with Chicago.
But the key to the Bears’ success this season has been an effective run game — one that both gashes defenses for consistent gains on the ground and controls the clock.
Chicago paces the NFL in rushing yards per game at 160.7, with D’Andre Swift leading the charge with 398 yards and six touchdowns through six games.
That commitment to the run game and ability to bleed the clock by consistently gaining first downs have been a winning formula for Ben Johnson’s club — with the Bears leading the league in average time of possession at 36:01, well ahead of second-place Minnesota (33:37).
Given Drake Maye’s strong play as of late (10 passing touchdowns, one interception in his last three games), the Bears will welcome any opportunity to eat up minutes and keep the ball out of the Patriots QB’s hands on Thursday.
As such, New England’s defense needs to be stout against the run and keep Chicago off the field, especially on short-yardage plays on third and fourth down.
The Patriots struggled against the run against New York at times, with Braelon Allen gaining 78 yards off 17 carries.
But New England is one of two teams that haven’t given up a 20-plus-yard run this season, and they’ve allowed zero 100-yard rushers through six games.
If New England’s defenders can wrap up Swift and Williams and limit those extended drives for Chicago, Maye and Co. should be able to dole out some damage.
Drake Maye vs. Chicago’s defense on early downs
Maye revealed some of the answers to the test of solving a Dennis Allen defense earlier this week.
”You’ve got to be good on first- and second down. I think they’re really good at getting off the field,” Maye noted. “They try to get you in longer distances, trying to give you some blitz looks, trying to get you to take some chances in zone coverage with their eyes on you, and then they’ll mix in some man coverage.”
The Bears defense under Allen is at its best in third-down situations, with Chicago dialing up plenty of pressure to put opposing QBs under duress.
So far this season, the Bears rank second in the league in third-down conversion rate (25.8 percent) and second in sack rate (9 percent).
If Maye is going to have to drop back on a lot of third-and-long situations, it could be a painful night for the signal-caller.
The Patriots need to get to more manageable yardage on first and second down, which could call on players like Rhamondre Stevenson or even Corey Kiner for some early runs.
But beyond that, don’t be surprised to see Maye and Josh McDaniels look to be aggressive on first and second-down plays — with Evan Lazar of Patriots.com noting that Chicago is just 29th in the league in EPA per play on first and second down, as opposed to fifth on third-down plays.
Chicago has also been susceptible to giving up explosive plays, with Lazar noting that the Bears cough up an explosive play on 18.4 percent of opposing drop-backs, ranking 28th in the NFL.
A bounce-back performance from A.J. Brown after a drop-riddled showing against the Jets would be a welcome sight for Maye, who might be willing to take multiple shots downfield — especially on play-action calls.
New England’s interior offensive line vs. Bears pass rush
Some of that success for Chicago’s defense on third-down situations will revolve around just how much pressure it can generate against Maye.
Unfortunately for New England, its offensive line will be in rough shape on Thursday — with Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker both ruled out due to injury. Right tackle Morgan Moses is also a question mark after going down with an ankle injury last week against the Jets.
Even if Moses can’t go on Thursday, the Patriots at least have a solid backup plan in rookie Caleb Lomu, who was stellar in relief of Moses against the Jets with zero sacks, QB hits, pressures, and hurries allowed in 30 pass-blocking snaps.
New England shouldn’t have to fret at the tackle position, especially with left tackle Will Campbell also holding his own against the Jets on Sunday.
But the interior of New England’s O-line is another story, with backups Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor standing as the next men up at guard to replace Vera-Tucker and Brown.
The Bears may not have star edge rusher Montez Sweat due to a suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy. But Austin Booker has been a menace so far for Chicago, posting four sacks and five tackles for loss.
The pressure will be on Pryor and Rouse on Thursday. Both players held up against the Jets on Sunday — with New England not giving up a single sack in that 26-19 win.
Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.
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