Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: U.S. officials are in New Delhi pushing for U.S.-India cooperation, violence flares again on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border despite talks, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India visit reveals a little about how the bilateral relationship could evolve.
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U.S. Officials Pop Up in New Delhi
The past few months have produced some encouraging signs for the U.S.-India relationship, which has been in deep crisis for much of the last year, since U.S. President Donald Trump took office. This week, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker was in New Delhi and Bengaluru for meetings about strategic, economic, and technological cooperation.
India and the United States held a round of counterterrorism dialogue on Dec. 3. A few weeks earlier, the two sides finalized a new 10-year framework agreement on defense cooperation. And harsh criticism from the White House toward India, targeting its economy and oil purchases from Russia, has stopped for now.
Yet my biggest takeaway from my own visit to New Delhi last week is that the relationship is still in a bad place. There is a prevailing view that the United States has lost a lot of the goodwill that it built up with India in the past two decades—in large part because of the high tariffs that Trump slapped on India; the sudden U.S. embrace of Pakistan; and above all, the White House’s withering criticism.
These developments have validated the views of Indian observers who have long argued that the United States isn’t a true and trusted friend—in contrast to say, Russia, whose president visited New Delhi last week.
A new trade deal, which Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to pursue during a February summit, would be a much-needed confidence-building measure. There is considerable optimism in India that one can be reached. “There can be a landing point for our respective trade interests,” Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said on Saturday.
India has made some concessions that were likely demanded by U.S. negotiators: It has reduced Russian oil imports in recent weeks and concluded a new gas deal with the United States. The question is what else India will need to offer—including, perhaps, the difficult U.S. ask that India grant greater market access to politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture.
A U.S. negotiating team led by Rick Switzer, the deputy trade representative, is in New Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, though reportedly not for formal talks.
A trade accord alone wouldn’t be a silver bullet. Given the scale of the U.S.-India trust gap, it will take time for the relationship to return to what it was, especially when it comes to sensitive types of cooperation. A visit to India by Trump would help, and it could happen if a long-delayed Quadrilateral Security Dialogue leaders’ summit convenes early next year.
Trump would likely be more inclined to travel to India if he could bring something big to announce, such as a trade deal. Either way, Hooker’s visit, which includes discussions on emerging technologies, energy, and Indo-Pacific issues—all Quad priorities—may be laying the groundwork for a potential presidential visit.
People who I spoke with in New Delhi believe that India is committed to weathering the crisis and to its relationship with the United States. In better times, India has valued the partnership in efforts to counter China and, on more transactional levels, in providing intelligence and serving as a top export market.
One signal to watch for about the relationship’s trajectory relates to bureaucracy. The White House is driving policy toward India, and it has taken the hardest line. But within the U.S. military and interagency community, there is strong support for deep partnership. Tellingly, other cooperation—from joint military exercises to satellite launches and law-enforcement collaborations—has continued even amid tensions.
Two of the most important India-focused officials outside the White House—U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia S. Paul Kapur and incoming U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor—have signaled a desire to make the relationship work. Given his close links to Trump, Gor will be especially influential. If given enough policy space to shape ties, these officials could help steer the relationship in a positive direction.
What We’re Following
Afghanistan-Pakistan violence. Clashes flared anew on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border over the weekend. According to each government, five Afghan civilians died and five were wounded, with three civilians wounded in Pakistan. In October, the two countries engaged in their deadliest exchange of violence since the Taliban returned to power four years ago, with Pakistan carrying out cross-border airstrikes and Afghan forces retaliating.
The crux of the crisis is Pakistan’s contention that the Taliban are not taking action against militants operating from Afghan soil who have carried out increasing numbers of attacks in Pakistan in recent years. Pakistan has taken matters into its own hands.
What is troubling about the weekend violence is that it came soon after internationally mediated talks meant to ease the unrest. Saudi Arabian officials quietly hosted both sides last month. Little was said about those talks publicly, until officials acknowledged that they didn’t end the logjam, the latest case in an ongoing pattern.
Qatar and Turkey have hosted a few rounds of talks, too. Though they succeeded in getting Pakistan and Afghanistan to agree to a cease-fire—which in principle remains in place today—the talks have done little to address the core issues driving the crisis, including the Taliban’s refusal to address Pakistan’s demands.
Putin in India. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India last week served two important purposes. First, it reasserted the strength of India-Russia partnership at a moment when U.S. pressure on New Delhi to do less business with Moscow has put the relationship in a difficult spot. (Modi’s decision to receive Putin at the airport—going against protocol—was clearly meant to demonstrate the personal importance that he invests in the relationship.)
Second, the summit highlighted how the India-Russia relationship is looking to evolve in the face of relentless U.S. pressure. A joint statement laid out plans to expand trade cooperation beyond energy, which is threatened by U.S. sanctions on Russian companies, and to pursue partnership in new spaces, from infrastructure to joint Arctic initiatives.
Sri Lanka cyclone aftermath. Sri Lanka is still reeling from the effects of a deadly cyclone that slammed into the country last month. As of Tuesday, the death toll stood at 630, with nearly 200 people still unaccounted for, according to government figures. According to the United Nations, almost 20 percent of the country’s land area has been flooded.
Monsoon storms and landslides in recent days have complicated rescue efforts. Fortunately, international humanitarian assistance continues to come in, including airlift and logistics aid provided by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command aircraft that arrived in Sri Lanka on Monday. The cyclone and its aftermath pose challenges to Colombo that go beyond immediate humanitarian needs.
The Sri Lankan government has taken flak from critics for an insufficient response, suggesting potential political damage for President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, especially if fatality figures keep rising. The destruction wrought by the cyclone, which wiped out tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, raises troubling questions about the implications for Sri Lanka’s fragile economy.
Under the Radar
Last Friday, Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, directed some of the armed forces’ strongest language to date against imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Without referring to Khan by name, Chaudhry called him a “creeping national security threat” and accused him of having a “delusional mindset” and pushing a narrative “in deep collusion with external actors”—presumably a reference to India. The spokesperson also alleged that Khan is attempting to pit the people against the Pakistani Army.
Khan has been imprisoned since August 2023 on charges that his supporters reject as politically motivated. The former leader and the military have been embroiled in confrontation since Khan lost power in 2022 in a parliamentary no-confidence vote that he accused the armed forces of engineering. Khan and Asim Munir, now Pakistan’s chief of defense forces, have bad blood; Munir was mysteriously fired as intelligence chief when Khan was prime minister.
Some observers believe that Chaudhry’s comments are telegraphing the military’s intention to harm Khan. That is highly unlikely: The military has a strong incentive to keep him safe and healthy to avoid an internal stability crisis. The comments likely are simply a tough response to aggressive criticism about the military—and specifically Munir—posted on Khan’s X account. It is not clear who is posting on Khan’s behalf.
The account’s most recent posts have called Munir “mentally unstable” and the “most tyrannical dictator in history.” Chaudhry’s comments may also portend fresh charges against Khan. The key takeaway here is that Khan is not about to get out of prison anytime soon, especially with Munir in his post.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Regional Voices
In the Daily Star, economist Abdullah A. Dewan explains what ails Bangladesh’s struggling economy. The country is “neither a market economy nor a compassionate capitalist system, and not even a hybrid of the two,” he writes. “It is an economy in which natural and human resources are trapped in a downward spiral created by the system, yet struggling to sustain and seeking rescue.”
In the Express Tribune, former official Syed Akhtar Ali Shah writes about how to reinvigorate Pakistani democracy: “Only by embedding democratic practices into the political culture—respecting individual liberty, fostering accountable leadership and insulating governance from undue influence—can Pakistan hope to navigate its way out of this quagmire,” he writes.
In the Print, writer Shatakshi Ganguly discusses how Bengali cinema in India has made a comeback in recent months. “Bengali cinema, disparaged by doubt, now basks in the golden glow of brevity and art that refuses to be abandoned,” she writes.
