What Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl will probably come down to

What Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl will probably come down to

New England Patriots

This has the potential to be a classic, leaving no margin for error with two QBs who have little in common other than being former No. 3 overall picks, and so much weight on their shoulders.

Drake Maye and Sam Darnold are set to go head-to-head in Super Bowl LX. (Carlos Avila Gonzalez/San Francisco Chronicle via AP)

By Chad Finn

February 7, 2026 | 10:45 AM

7 minutes to read

SAN FRANCISCO — Welcome to Season 14, Episode 21 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup …

Tell me which quarterback turns over the ball less come Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, and I’ll tell you which one will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy amid a sea of confetti later that evening.

There are many other factors, of course, that could determine the outcome of the Patriots’ rematch with the Seahawks, 11 years after their unforgettable first Super Bowl meeting.

But after two weeks of analyzing every conceivable factor and angle to this game, it really does appear like it will come down to whether young superstar Drake Maye or rejuvenated Jets refugee Sam Darnold plays better and protects the ball against a pair of outstanding defenses.

Maye has had his spotty moments in the postseason, fumbling six times and throwing a pair of interceptions (one a Hail Mary) in the Patriots’ first two playoff games before playing a cleaner game (no turnovers) in the Denver snow during the AFC Championship game. But his degree of difficulty has been far from easy: The 23-year-old is the first quarterback in NFL history to guide his team to victory against three top-five defenses in a single postseason.

Darnold, in his first season in Seattle, was outstanding in the NFC Championship game, throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-27 win over the Rams. Darnold is yet to commit a turnover in the postseason, but he threw the third-most interceptions (14) and committed the second-most fumbles (six, second only to Titans rookie Cam Ward’s seven) during the regular season.

The Seahawks and Patriots are a matchup of two extremely well-coached and well-rounded teams. The Patriots were second in the NFL in points (28.8 per game); the Seahawks were third (28.4). The Seahawks allowed the fewest points per game in the league (17.2); the Patriots were fourth (18.8).

This has the potential to be a classic, leaving no margin for error with two quarterbacks who have little in common other than being former No. 3 overall picks, and so much weight on their shoulders.

Kick it off, Borregales, and let’s get this thing started …

Three players worth watching other than the quarterbacks

Milton Williams: If the Patriots win, Maye almost certainly will be named Super Bowl MVP. But if this one takes the shape of a defensive battle — and it could — my bet is that Williams, the game-wrecking defensive tackle, will take the honor.

He probably should have last year, when he racked up seven tackles, four quarterback pressures, a pair of sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery in the Eagles’ 40-22 thumping of the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. That was some Reggie White-level stuff from the then-25-year-old, who parlayed his sensational Super Bowl into a four-year, $104 million free agent deal with the Patriots.

It is not hyperbolic to say that the contract has been a bargain for the Patriots. Williams has been the anchor of the defense — which has allowed just 8.7 points per game in the postseason — much in the way Richard Seymour was in the early years of the dynasty.

Williams, along with fellow defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga, will be essential in stopping Kenneth Walker and a Seahawks running attack that stacked up 175 yards and three touchdowns in a divisional-round rout of the 49ers, before coming back to earth with 75 yards and a score in the NFC Championship game.

But Williams will be even more essential as a pass rusher. The Patriots must force Darnold to revert to making those old, familiar mistakes. (He has one touchdown pass and nine interceptions in four career games against the Patriots, and was asked about ghosts more times this past week than those featured in “Paranormal Witness” have in their lifetimes.)

Williams has been excellent since returning from an ankle injury in Week 18. The Patriots will need him to be beyond excellent Sunday night. They need him to be exactly what he was the last time we saw him in a Super Bowl: the best defensive player on the field.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Two thoughts enter a Patriots fan’s head when watching highlights of Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks’ superb third-year receiver:

1. I hope the Patriots get someone like him someday for Maye.

2. This guy is terrifying.

It is impossible to exaggerate how exceptional Smith-Njigba has been this season as the engine of the Seahawks offense. He caught 119 passes on 163 targets for a league-best 1,793 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Including the playoffs, he has 11 games with at least eight catches and 10 games with more than 100 receiving yards. In the NFC Championship game, he punished the Rams with 10 receptions for 153 yards and a score.

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 10 catches for 153 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship game against the Rams. – Ben VanHouten

Smith-Njigba is so hard to defend, especially in man-to-man coverage, because he is excellent at virtually everything that makes a receiver special, especially route-running.

Conventional wisdom says that the Patriots will deploy Christian Gonzalez in man coverage on Smith-Njigba. Gonzalez is at his best when he’s challenged. This will be the biggest challenge of his career.

Stefon Diggs: The veteran receiver has had a quiet postseason, with nine catches for 73 yards and a touchdown in the wins over the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. But he’s often been at his best when Maye has needed him the most, including pivotal wins in Week 5 against the Bills (10 catches, 146 yards) and Week 16 over the Ravens (9-138). Seahawks star rookie safety Nick Emmanwori suffered an ankle injury in practice this past week. He says he’s good to go, but if he’s slowed at all, Diggs — who Maye will likely lean on no matter what — should have some room to operate.

The flashback

So way back in September 1980, the Patriots’ Steve Grogan and the Seahawks’ Jim Zorn engaged in a QB shootout, won by the Patriots, 37-31. Stanley Morgan hauled in two long touchdown passes for the Patriots, Steve Largent caught a pair of TD passes for the Seahawks, and …

Oh, who are we kidding? As fun as revisiting Grogan vs. Zorn may be for those of us of a certain age, there’s only one previous Patriots-Seahawks showdown among the 20 games they have played that matters.

Right. Super Bowl XLIX. What else could we revisit this week?

Of all of the extraordinary Patriots games during the two-decade dynasty, the two I revisit most often are the fourth quarter and overtime of the Snow Bowl (which was a very slow game, believe it or not) and the last 10 minutes or so of Super Bowl XLIX.

Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception was one of the most, if not the most, clutch defensive play in NFL history. It also was one of the most boneheaded play-calls the league will ever see.

As someone who believed that Pete Carroll was a wildly overrated NFL coach — yes, that was based almost entirely on watching a talented, young Patriots team disintegrate on his watch from 1997-99 — his blank stare after Butler’s interception, and in the crucial moments before it, validated that opinion.

Pete Carroll would like a mulligan for the final minute of Super Bowl XLIX against the Patriots. – David Goldman

We could wonder how Patriots history would have played out in the ensuing seasons had they lost that night in Arizona. But there’s no real need to do so. Obscure Malcolm Butler made one of the most consequential plays in NFL lore, and reliving it will never get old.

Grievance of the week

Tom Brady did a swell job this past week of reminding us that he means much more to New England than New England means to him.

While appearing on his SiriusXM podcast with toady-to-the-stars Jim Gray, Brady was asked who he was pulling for in the Super Bowl. “I don’t have a dog in the fight in this one. May the best team win,” said the 20-year Patriot with the 17-foot statue in his honor outside Gillette Stadium, before tossing a word salad about this exciting new chapter in New England.

It was a political answer from Brady, who is a minority owner of the Raiders and reportedly intends to hire Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as the team’s head coach.

At least, we hope it was political. It would be a bummer if Brady — who has leaned in to his filthy-rich-guy soullessness in recent years — really doesn’t have a rooting interest, given that former teammate Mike Vrabel is the coach, his longtime collaborator Josh McDaniels is the offensive coordinator, and Robert Kraft often referred to him as a son. But maybe that’s our real gripe here: Brady could actually be telling the truth.

Prediction, or the Seahawks would definitely run from the 1 this time, right?

Something I’ve noticed during a week of talking with assorted media folks here in the Bay Area: Reporters who have covered the Patriots all season are far more optimistic about their chances Sunday than the national reporters are.

It isn’t collective homerism at play here. It’s the recognition that the Patriots have won 17 of 20 games, never losing by more than a touchdown. It’s the realization that watching Maye make exceptional throws in big spots all season is a better measure of what he’s capable of than a couple of uneven games, one in lousy weather conditions in Denver and one against a hellacious Texans pass rush, in the postseason. It’s the knowledge that the defense has become healthier and better, that Vrabel has surrounded himself with an exceptional coaching staff, that the Patriots are capable of winning in an assortment of ways, depending upon what the game demands.

The Seahawks are an outstanding team. They could beat the Patriots in a close one, and they are capable of blowing them out if Maye’s shoulder isn’t right and the bounces and breaks go their way. But after watching this Patriots team find ways to win all season, I’m not about to pick against them now. This team is the closest thing to the 2001 Patriots that we will ever see. Let the new championship era begin. Patriots 28, Seahawks 24.

Chad Finn

Sports columnist

Chad Finn is a sports columnist for Boston.com. He has been voted Favorite Sports Writer in Boston in the annual Channel Media Market and Research Poll for the past four years. He also writes a weekly sports media column for the Globe and contributes to Globe Magazine.

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