Under-promise, over-deliver. It’s a well-known and highly successful business strategy where expectations are set below what can be achieved, only to provide an outcome that vastly exceeds those expectations, much to the delight of the consumer.
In the case of Cameron Green at Test level right now, Australian cricket has over-promised on what he can achieve, and he is under-delivering on what was promised so far, much to the frustration of Australian fans.
The over-promise part is not Green’s fault. He didn’t ask Greg Chappell to call him the “best batting talent I’ve seen since Ricky Ponting” in 2020 prior to his Test debut.
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Nor did he ask Nathan Lyon to say “he could be the next Jacques Kallis of international cricket” in 2024.
He didn’t ask Pat Cummins to say just six months ago that he could be Australia’s long-term No.3.
Six months and seven Tests later, Green finds himself at the most challenging point of his career to-date.
At 26, he is the youngest member of Australia’s batting unit by five years and seen as the future. But 36 Tests into his career he is averaging 32.25 and has scored just two Test centuries. Worse still, he is averaging 27.80 in 19 Tests at home with just four half-centuries.
It is those numbers, combined with his performances in this Ashes series to-date, where he has scores of 24, 45, 0, 7, 17 and 19, that have led to questions about his place and what he is as a Test player.
“We’ve played on some hard surfaces for batting,” Steve Smith said. “We’ve seen two two-day games, which it’s not easy, but he’s got himself in on a few occasions and probably not gone on with it. And that’s probably the disappointing part about it. Starting your innings is actually the hardest thing. He’s doing that pretty well and then just finding a way to get out. And that happens with everyone. I’ve been through the same thing on numerous occasions, too.”
That he’s got started in four of his six innings has only added to the frustration. For so long the criticism has been that Green is a nervous starter. But those starts have only added to his nerves it seems. The missed opportunities in Perth and Brisbane, which were his only two innings in over a month between his last Sheffield Shield game before the Ashes and the third Test in Adelaide, saw him become nervous about not converting another start. It was evident in Adelaide and Melbourne that he was almost paralysed by that fear, leading to a quartet of bizarre dismissals, the nadir of which was running himself out on Boxing Day to gift England a freebie on a pitch where no freebies were needed.
He has batted in five different spots in his last five Tests, including four different spots in the Ashes, with his coach Andrew McDonald articulating post Melbourne that he is being forced to bat around others because he hasn’t bedded down a spot on form.
“Not too long ago, he contributed some really valuable runs in the series in the West Indies on some tricky surfaces,” Smith said. “I think he was our [third] leading run scorer there, batting at three. So, yeah, he’s batted in different spots, which also can’t be easy as well when you’re trying to nail down one role, I suppose.
“Greeny hasn’t got the runs he’s wanted so far, but I think he’s actually looked quite good at times too. We know he’s a bright player. Every time he goes back to Shield cricket, he smashes it. And regardless of what happens right now, we think he’s got a really bright future.”
This is where expectation and frustration converge. Australian fans are quite rightly asking when that bright future will emerge given he is 26 already.
Ponting was averaging 46.08 after 36 Tests with seven centuries, just prior to his 26th birthday.
Smith was averaging 55.36 with 12 Test hundreds
In terms of expectation, it is unfair to compare against Australia’s two greatest ever Test runscorers.
Cameron Green was bowled backing away too far CA/Getty Images
Except for Green, that expectation isn’t founded upon just the opinion of Chappell and others. As Smith noted, Green’s Shield record is exceptional. In 33 matches he averages 52.47 with eight centuries. There isn’t a single active Shield player with a better record than that after ten matches or more. Smith averages 50.62 after 45 Shield appearances for New South Wales. Ponting’s career Shield average was a staggering 63.13 from 65 games.
But it is worth noting the career arc of one of Green’s team-mates in the retiring Usman Khawaja, who averages 48.27 at Shield level. He is set to finish with over 6000 Test runs and at least 16 Test centuries, which puts him in an elite group of Australian Test batters.
But Khawaja’s first Test century did not come until just prior to his 29th birthday. His Test average was 25.13 from 17 innings before that.
Players find their feet at Test level at different rates. It is clear Green is taking longer than others.
There is also the question of what Green is and what he should be measured against given his all-round capabilities. He has 38 wickets at 36.68 and one five-wicket haul, a bowling record that the batters could only dream of with none of them ever having to spend any time working on their bowling or preparing themselves for the physical aspect of it.
The comparison to Kallis seems an impossible standard to reach. Someone like Shane Watson might be a fairer example. Watson was another who suffered from an unreasonable weight of expectation yet delivered a Test career that sits comfortably among some illustrious seam-bowling allrounders, despite a widely held belief in Australia that he underachieved.
Watson had played just three Tests before he turned 27, due to a spate of injuries and the strength of Australia’s team at the time. Green has played a lot more to-date, but his injuries have influenced his development in similar ways. Missing 15 months of Test cricket due to back surgery immediately after making 174 not out at No.4 in New Zealand has led to a sense that he is starting his career again this year, rather than being ready to take the next step and become the player people expect him to be.
Australia have an eight-month break after the Ashes before they play another Test, with a T20 World Cup and the IPL the only cricket Green will play before then. But Australia play 20 Tests in 12 months thereafter.
It will be clearer at the end of that period what Green is as a Test player. But what is clear right now is that expectations need to be recalibrated.
