Strategy’s 649,870 BTC stash implies a value 78% above MSTR’s price, flagging a rare historical undervaluation zone.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, the market is mispricing Strategy (MSTR), arguing that the firm’s 649,870 BTC stash now implies a value that’s about 78% above where the stock currently trades.
He bases that view on on-chain metrics and CryptoQuant’s MSTR “price bands,” which he says now show the stock sitting deep in its historical undervaluation zone.
Analyst Flags Rare Undervaluation Zone for MSTR
In a December 1 report, Alemán pointed out that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings were acquired at an average cost of $74,432 per BTC, giving the company a corporate “realized price” with about 22% unrealized profit on its position.
By his calculations, the relationship between this stash and the current MSTR share price suggests a discount of around 78% relative to the value implied by its BTC treasury.
CryptoQuant’s MSTR price bands compare the stock’s actual trading level with a theoretical fair value based purely on its Bitcoin reserves. The upper band has historically marked periods when MSTR trades at a rich premium, while the lower band has tended to coincide with heavy discounts that are often followed by recoveries.
Alemán noted that in the latest chart, MSTR has already tapped that lower band, a condition he described as a strong mispricing signal that, in past cycles, preceded “sustained recoveries” once sentiment improved.
Meanwhile, Strategy’s BTC accumulation has not slowed. It recently executed its largest purchase since July, adding more than $830 million worth of Bitcoin at around $100,000 per BTC.
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That move followed rumors that the firm was quietly selling, which were later debunked by on-chain analysts and CEO Michael Saylor, who insisted the company had been buying daily even as BTC slid from about $107,000 to $94,000.
Stock Slide and ETF Rotation
MSTR closed around $177 on December 1, far below its 52-week high near $457 and barely above its yearly low near $166, according to Yahoo Finance data. The stock has been hit by a broad pullback in Bitcoin-linked equities, its exclusion from the S&P 500 on November 25, and fears that upcoming MSCI index rules could force additional selling of companies whose balance sheets are heavily tied to crypto.
At the same time, institutional money has been shifting from leveraged “Bitcoin proxy” stocks like Strategy into spot BTC ETFs from issuers such as BlackRock. According to market watchers, that rotation has eroded the hefty premium MSTR often enjoyed over its underlying Bitcoin and, for the first time in about five years, pushed the company’s market value below the worth of its BTC holdings.
Some, like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, argue that companies holding large digital asset treasuries can reasonably trade at a discount due to operating costs and risk. Strategy itself has tried to reassure bondholders, recently stressing that its BTC reserves cover its convertible debt nearly sixfold at Bitcoin around $74,000 and roughly twice over even in a steep drop to $25,000.
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