Saturday, March 7, marked a Senior Day victory over Buffalo that Lilly Ferguson won’t soon forget — her final minutes in the Mullins Center and the close of a four-year dream.
The Massachusetts women’s basketball team clinched its Mid-American Conference tournament spot weeks ago, but now it is finally standing at the base of its biggest mountain yet to climb.
“When you come to college and you start your year off as a freshman, you have a lot of big dreams for your journey, and it’s been a really big dream of mine to win a conference championship… I know that our team is going to do whatever it takes,” Ferguson said.
The motor behind this 23-win season has seen it all: a 2023 WNIT appearance followed by a 5-27 disaster. Since that low point, the trajectory of the Minutewomen (23-6, 15-3 MAC) has been mostly vertical. UMass changed conferences, overhauled its roster and now stands just three games away from hanging a banner in the Mullins Center. It’s hard to find a MAC team better equipped to go all the way.
Unlike Eastern Michigan’s Sisi Eleko or Central Michigan’s Madi Morson, the Minutewomen lack a definitive frontrunner for MAC Player of the Year. However, in non-Power Four leagues, there is a misconception that star power equals conference dominance.
Over the last decade, only five of the 10 MAC champions featured the conference Player of the Year. The most recent outlier was 2024 Kent State.
The Golden Flashes boasted four players averaging double digits and relied on fourth-quarter dominance. UMass mirrors that blueprint.
Yahmani McKayle, Megan Olbrys and Allie Palmieri all average double digits, while bench options like Aiyanna Perkins provide nuclear potential if the starters’ shots aren’t falling. Like that 2024 Kent State squad, the Minutewomen manage to do almost everything else at an elite level.
With Ayanna Franks jumping passing lanes and Chinenye Odenigbo blocking shots, the UMass defense has risen to No. 2 in the MAC. Olbrys and Palmieri lock down the interior and perimeter, giving the Minutewomen a strong advantage in one-on-one matchups.
The 2024 Golden Flashes allowed 63 points per game in their tournament run; UMass heads to Cleveland allowing just 60.1.
Tournament play starts Wednesday at 11 a.m. The Minutewomen will wait through the early slate before taking the court against Toledo, which is playing without its leading scorer, Faith Fedd-Robinson.
One of the juggernauts waiting in the potential semifinals and final round is Ball State. Representing one of six losses UMass suffered this season, the Cardinals dismantled the Minutewomen in the second half of their Jan. 21 meeting.
After holding a six-point lead at the break, UMass watched Ball State peel off a devastating 18-3 third-quarter run. By the time the final buzzer sounded, the Cardinals had turned a competitive back-and-forth affair into a 78-60 slaughter, capitalizing on 17 made free throws and a Minutewomen offense that went completely stale.
It’s been a long time since UMass’ second-half woes have caught up to them. It’ll be up to the Minutewomen if they can shine under the bright lights of Rocket Arena, especially when the bracket they face is so challenging.
UMass will face the winner of No. 7 Bowling Green vs. No. 2 Ball State in the second round. All metrics show the Cardinals as the overwhelming favorite and the likely semifinal matchup. A quarterfinal win over Toledo sets up a heavyweight semifinal: the Minutewomen’s No. 2 defense versus Ball State’s No. 1 offense.
Ball State went against the grain this season, winning with a fast-paced offense. Scoring over 79 points per game, the Cardinals are going to test the paint early, looking to score easy layups and fall back to their 33% three-point percentage if they can’t break through.
With a MAC-leading 1380 rebounds this season, Ball State has amassed almost 200 more defensive boards than the next team in the conference. UMass will not have many second-chance shots, placing the pressure on McKayle to run the offense efficiently and generate high-percentage shots.
The Cardinals’ two senior stars are the 6-foot-5 Tessa Towers and the 6-foot-2 Bree Salenbien. As two MAC Player Of the Year candidates, they mark the largest threats to the Minutewomen’s season so far. Stopping them will fall on the shoulders of Odenigbo and Olbrys.
If they survive the Cardinal’s cardio session, the final peak awaits: No. 1 Miami (OH). While Ball State tests a team’s speed, the RedHawks test their will. Miami captured the co-regular-season title behind a defense that forced nearly 21 turnovers per game in conference play, a suffocating press led by sophomore standout Tamar Singer.
The RedHawks’ identity is built on offensive consistency and veteran composure. Their 6-foot-1 anchor, Amber Tretter, is a walking double-double who recently surpassed 1,000 career points. She provides a kind of gravity that forces defenses to collapse and leaves shooters like Amber Scalia open beyond the arc.
In their Jan. 7 meeting, Miami exploited every crack in UMass’ armor, using a 30-point second-quarter explosion to bury the Minutewomen early. The Valentine’s Day rematch in Amherst told a different story.
UMass proved the RedHawks were human, escaping a 65-64 thriller with the win. To repeat that feat on a neutral court in Cleveland, the Minutewomen must play a perfect game of “inside-out” basketball. They cannot allow Tretter to dictate the pace or let Singer turn the game into a turnover frenzy.
For Lilly Ferguson, this weekend represents the culmination of a four-year program revolution, from a year the Newington, CT. native could only sum up as “you had to be there,” to a tangible chance at a dream come true. Ferguson and this group have already proven they belong in the conversation, surpassing the last four months of trials and tribulations.
Now, 120 minutes of basketball is all that stands in their way.
Matt Ford-Wellman can be reached at [email protected] or followed on X @MattFW_4.
