The Seattle Seahawks will be favored over the New England Patriots for Super Bowl LX… and no matter who wins, the champion will be among the biggest preseason long shots to take home the Lombardi Trophy in over two decades.
Seattle opened as a 3.5-point favorite before quickly jumping up to -4.5, according to DraftKings odds; the sportsbooks across the marketplace did not have a consensus opening spread, ranging anywhere from -3.5 to -5. Once the dust settled on the initial wagering Sunday night, Seahawks -4.5 or -5 emerged as the most common line.
On the money line, Seattle is -230 to win the big game, with New England claiming +190 odds. DraftKings opened the total at 46.5, where it remains as of Monday morning, though some sportsbooks are down to 46.
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Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football Joey Feazel estimates that “approximately five percent” of the Super Bowl’s total handle on the main markets comes within the first 24 hours.
“As expected, the initial action is driven primarily by sharp bettors, whose wagers help shape and refine the market,” Feazel said over email. “Once the line settles, recreational bettors begin to follow, with volume steadily building as kickoff approaches. This early professional engagement is a consistent and important part of the Super Bowl betting lifecycle and plays a key role in establishing efficient and competitive pricing for the broader customer base.”
Assuming the Patriots close as underdogs, it will break a streak of eight consecutive Super Bowls in which they’ve been favored; the last time they were an underdog in the NFL’s championship game was 2002, when they upset the St. Louis Rams for the franchise’s first title.
That Super Bowl was also significant because it was the last time a team with +6000 preseason championship odds or longer won it all, according to SportsOddsHistory.com data. This season’s Patriots and Seahawks both entered the campaign at +6000, per DraftKings lines.
These teams’ long Super Bowl odds, both before and early in the season, have some sportsbooks sweating out liabilities.
BetMGM, which opened with Seattle -5, has had serious futures burdens on Seattle, with senior trading manager Tristan Davis saying, “bettors would love to see the Seahawks win.” The book already paid out $1.4 million from a $50,000 preseason wager on Seattle to win the NFC at +2800 odds.
On the other side, New England continues to be the largest liability for DraftKings, which had the Pats as long as 120-1 after Week 3. Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN at the beginning of the postseason that there is “money on [the Patriots] everywhere.”
Underdogs have won the past three Super Bowls outright and have covered the spread in five straight. All time, underdogs are 23-36 straight up and 30-27-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Research.
ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this report.
