The Australian Open women’s final will showcase world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against No. 5 Elena Rybakina on Saturday. Sabalenka has won two titles in Melbourne — but it was Rybakina who most recently defeated Sabalenka, when the two played in the year-end WTA Finals.
Who will win? Our experts break it down.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Rybakina?
D’Arcy Maine: For Sabalenka, who is playing in her fourth consecutive final in Melbourne, it’s going to come down to one thing, and one thing only: Nerves.
Her play has been incredible throughout the fortnight and the season so far, and she carries an 11-match win streak into the final. Not only that, but Sabalenka has yet to drop a set in 2026. Clearly, she has the game to win her fifth major title and third at the Australian Open, but she has struggled with emotions in major finals before (see: last year’s Australian Open and French Open) and sometimes seems to get clouded by the weight of the moment. She turned things around while competing for the trophy at the US Open last season and will need to find that same mental strength and clarity Saturday to secure the win.
Australian Open Women’s Odds
Jake Michaels: Is it too simplistic to say she just needs to carry on with exactly what she’s been doing this fortnight? Maybe. But Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set through six matches and is playing her usual ruthless, ultra-aggressive style of tennis, one that’s left every opponent void of answers. There’s been so much talk about her temperament and composure in the pressure moments, but don’t forget, just days ago she became the first player in the Open era to win 20 consecutive tiebreaks. It’s an incomprehensible number and it speaks volumes to how she’s been able to shift the narrative around the mental side of her game.
Jarryd Barca: Sabalenka’s blueprint isn’t too complicated, the test is executing it under pressure and expectation — something she failed to do last year. She’s the world’s best player and a two-time champion in Melbourne, not to mention her seven major titles have all come on hard court. She has won 20 of her past 21 matches here for a reason, and needs to remember that, own that and lean into it. Tactically, attacking Rybakina’s second serve and refusing to let her settle into comfortable holds and short rallies is also going to be key. If Sabalenka can do that, apply early pressure and pull her opponent into exchanges where her powerful shotmaking can take over, that will allow her to be aggressive and take time away. Above all, she needs to be herself and stamp her authority early.
Rybakina has made it to the final twice at the Australian Open, playing Sabalenka in 2023 and 2026. Mark Avellino/Anadolu via Getty Images
What can Rybakina do to defeat Sabalenka?
Maine: No woman has won more matches since Wimbledon than Rybakina, and it’s been impressive to watch her rediscover her form and confidence after some challenges on and off the court. Much of her success can be attributed to her serve, and she will need to utilize that strength as much as possible against Sabalenka. It’s been shaky at times this tournament — specifically against Iga Swiatek in the quarters and Jessica Pegula in the semis — but she can’t afford such lapses against Sabalenka, who can otherwise match her powerful hitting and aggressive playing style. Rybakina’s first serve could be the key, and she’ll need a high percentage in that category to pull off the victory.
Their last meeting at the final of the year-end tour championships in November could provide something of a blueprint, as Rybakina had 13 aces and won 72.3% of her first serves to clinch the title. She’ll need a similar performance Saturday to earn her second major title.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Michaels: So much of Rybakina’s success at this tournament, and any other for that matter, hinges on her serve. It’s one of the greatest forces in the women’s game today, and one that has bought her a plethora of cheap points throughout her career. Rybakina has struck a tournament-best 41 aces en route to the final, almost double the amount Sabalenka has managed. And it’s not through having played more tennis, with Rybakina also advancing to Saturday’s showpiece match without having dropped a single set. She’s also won 74% of points when her first serve has landed in play.
We saw the blueprint of how to beat Sabalenka in an Australian Open final 12 months ago. Big-hitting Madison Keys matched the power and aggression coming from the other side of the net and continually frustrated the world No. 1.
Rybakina possesses all of the tools to repeat the dose.
Barca: If anyone has the tools to beat Sabalenka right now, it’s Rybakina. She matches her for power, hits her groundstrokes just as cleanly and is also yet to drop a set this tournament. That hasn’t come without shaky moments, though, including a tense second-set tiebreak against Pegula after holding earlier match points. A Rybakina win will stem from her serve. She has been the best server in the draw, hitting more aces than anyone, and she’ll need to drop in a high first-serve percentage to earn free points and keep Sabalenka from finding a rhythm on returns. From there, it’s about variety. Mix it up, change the pace, work Sabalenka into different directions and disrupt her timing, while picking the right time to strike. If Rybakina can be the one controlling the tempo, which she is more than capable of doing, she could be hard to stop.
No. 1-ranked Sabalenka won the Australian Open in 2023 and 2024. Clive Brunskill/Getty Images
Who will win?
Maine: If their 2023 meeting in the Australian Open final is any indication, this rematch could be epic. And, as we’ve seen in just about all of their previous meetings, this one could truly go either way. But while Sabalenka has the overall series edge, Rybakina actually leads their head-to-head 6-5 on hard court and has won four out of the past five on the surface. Perhaps most impressively, during that last meeting at the 2025 WTA Finals, Rybakina defeated Sabalenka — the tiebreak queen — in a tiebreak to love to claim the title.
There’s no doubt Sabalenka desperately wants to reclaim her crown in Melbourne and has been playing like a player on a mission throughout the Aussie summer, but there’s something about Rybakina’s quiet resolve and recent resurgence that I simply can’t pick against. Rybakina in three close sets.
Michaels: Sabalenka was my not-so-bold prediction before the tournament began, so it would be silly to jump ship now. Having said that, this final feels like a genuine 50-50 and you can make strong cases for both women hoisting the trophy.
You get the feeling that experience may very well be the deciding factor. This is Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive Australian Open final and seventh consecutive final at a hard-court major. Meanwhile, Rybakina hasn’t played in a slam final since falling to Sabalenka in the decider at Melbourne Park in 2023. Since then, and before this tournament, her best return at a hard-court major was reaching the fourth round. Sabalenka in three tight, gripping sets.
Barca: Sabalenka deserves favoritism, but that shouldn’t come without hesitation. She leads the head-to-head 8-6, owns Melbourne like no one else and entered the tournament as my pick to lift the trophy. But Rybakina was always the danger, and that feels even more true now. Rybakina has won 19 of her past 20 matches dating to late last season and has nine straight wins over top-10 opponents. Backing up straight-set wins over Swiatek and Pegula is a significant statement, and she also owns a recent edge having beaten Sabalenka in the WTA Finals title match. But there’s just something about Melbourne and how much it means to Sabalenka. History and legacy are on the line, not to mention redemption after dropping one she probably should have won in 2025. It’s power vs. power, and it has all the makings of a three-set epic, but I’ll stick with the world No. 1 Sabalenka.
