Offseason pitching acquisitions could yield massive dividends for the Boston Red Sox in 2026.
Despite brandishing MLB’s fifth-lowest team ERA (3.72) last season, the Red Sox still revamped their starting rotation by acquiring Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez and Johan Oviedo. They may have significantly bolstered a strength.
MLB statistician Thomas Nestico ran projections for each team’s adjusted ERA (ERA+), a metric that accounts for factors such as ballpark and quality of opponent. A 100 ERA+ is considered league-average, with a higher number representing a better result for pitchers.
Nestico calculated composite projections by averaging five different projection models. That exercise predicts an MLB-best 112 ERA+ for Boston, beating out the runner-up Los Angeles Dodgers at 108.
Steamer (112), The Bat (113), ATC (111) and Zips (113) each project Boston to possess the best ERA+ this season. OOPSY is the one forecaster not as dazzled by the Red Sox. Their 108 projected ERA+ trails the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays at 112 each.
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The Red Sox’s offseason additions help their cause. ATC projects a 3.72 ERA for Suárez in 165 innings and 3.79 ERA in 175 frames by Gray. Oviedo has a 4.24 projected ERA, but he may not spend the entire season in the rotation. Rookie southpaw Connelly Early is expected to make an impact with a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings.
Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet’s 3.07 ERA is ATC’s third-best projected mark among all starting pitchers behind Cy Young Award winners Paul Skenes (2.76) and Tarik Skubal (2.78). While Aroldis Chapman will have a hard time fully replicating last year’s dominance, his 3.04 projected ERA remains the fifth-lowest projection among relievers.
The Red Sox lost Alex Bregman without landing a replacement star hitter in free agency, but their pivot to pitching could lead them back to the postseason.
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