In all the years I’ve spent predicting the Oscars, I can hardly remember a season that felt so competitive until the very last minute.
Several major categories, including most of the acting races, still feel like tossups heading into the Oscars on Sunday. Adding to the uncertainty is the academy’s new initiative to make sure voters actually watch all the nominated contenders, which could have real implications in some of the tight contests.
This year, Oscar ballots were synced to the academy’s screening app, with entire categories greyed out until a voter was logged as having finished every nominee in that race. While members could check boxes to attest they had viewed the other contenders, many people I spoke with admitted that those tweaks had effectively guilted them into watching more movies.
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Does that benefit a best-actor contender like Ethan Hawke, whose small indie Blue Moon was sampled more than it would have been otherwise? Or will the effect be felt more in specialized categories like documentary feature, which busy voters may have skipped en masse, leaving the ultimate decision to the die-hards who watch everything?
With all those thoughts swimming in my mind, here are my tentatively offered projections in each category.
BEST PICTURE
Winner: One Battle After Another
Widely considered one of the greatest directors of his generation, Paul Thomas Anderson has received 14 Oscar nominations (including three this year), though he has never won. This year, voters finally appear ready to welcome the auteur into their canon.
Anderson’s One Battle After Another has taken the top prize at nearly every show this season, including the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and the directors and producers guild ceremonies. The latter group is an especially strong predictor of best-picture success, since the Producers Guild uses the same preferential ballot as the Oscars and shares significant member overlap with the academy.
Still, you can’t rule out a late surge from Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama. It has earned fresh momentum since breaking the record for the most Oscar nominations, and it performed strongly at the Actor Awards, winning the ensemble prize and best actor for Michael B. Jordan. The energy was so electric that it recalled the night Parasite won the same ensemble award on its way to toppling the Producers Guild winner 1917 at the Oscars.
But those upsets tend to occur when the season-long front-runner is respected rather than loved. I don’t think that’s the case with One Battle After Another: Many voters adore this movie and that should be enough to safeguard its big win.
one battle after another Credit: The Nightly
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
If you’re voting for One Battle in picture, you’re definitely voting for Anderson in director. What has surprised me is that a sizable chunk of Sinners voters I spoke to are opting for Anderson in the directing category, too. Maybe it’s just his moment.
Paul Thomas Anderson Credit: BANG – Entertainment News
BEST ACTOR
Winner: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
At the beginning of the season, I speculated that this Oscar was Chalamet’s to lose. Has he? The 30-year-old was recently defeated at the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards, revealing some resistance from industry voters. Still, I wonder if the academy’s long-time bias against handsome young A-listers in this category will also hinder the 39-year-old Jordan, who won with the friendlier Screen Actors Guild. If voters would rather reward a veteran, there are almost too many options: Do they choose DiCaprio, who led the likely best-picture winner? What about Hawke or Moura, who are well-liked and seemingly everywhere? Any of these five men can win, though I’m betting on Jordan, who is peaking at the right time.
Michael B. Jordan plays twin brothers in Sinners. Credit: @warnerbrosaus/TheWest
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
With so many acting races giving me agita, thank goodness for Buckley, who has thoroughly swept this season. (Not even a late-arriving bomb in “The Bride!” could slow her momentum.)
Jessie Buckley with the Leading Actress Award for ‘Hamnet’ during the 2026 EE BAFTA Film Awards. Credit: Gareth Cattermole/Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, should prevail thanks to his transformative performance and back-to-back victories at the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Voters who noticed that Penn was a no-show at those ceremonies may shift their support to contenders who seem to want it more, like Skarsgard or Lindo. Still, I think Penn is comfortably ahead in this category.
Sean Penn at the London Premiere of “One Battle After Another”. Credit: Tristan Fewings/Getty Images for Warner Bros. Pi
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
This is a tight three-way race. Taylor had a well-watched victory speech at the Globes but managed no big awards since. Mosaku earned a BAFTA from her fellow Brits, though during a big night for Sinners at the Actor Awards, she lost to Madigan, 75, who has a compelling comeback narrative. I’d feel more confident predicting Madigan if Weapons had shown more strength in other categories, but after speaking to so many Oscar voters who are rooting for her, I think she can pull it off.
Amy Madigan at the 32nd Annual Actor Awards Presented by SAG-AFTRA. Credit: Earl Gibson III/Deadline via Getty Images
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The path to best picture almost always involves a screenplay win. Whether Coogler’s film takes the night’s final prize, the writer-director is guaranteed to earn an Oscar in this category.
MICHAEL B. JORDAN as Smoke and Stack in Sinners. Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures;Supplied
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: One Battle After Another
In 1998, Anderson received his first Oscar nomination for writing Boogie Nights. Nearly every film he’s made since has earned a screenplay nomination (and the few that didn’t, like Phantom Thread, arguably should have). Triumphing in this category will give him a long-overdue win.
Leonardo DiCaprio plays a washed-up revolutionary in One Battle After Another. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAP
CASTING
Which film will win the inaugural casting Oscar? Unless voters are enchanted with the array of distinctive Brazilian faces in “The Secret Agent,” this award will probably go to one of the two strongest best-picture contenders. “Sinners” stands out for putting together a supersize ensemble that’s easy to keep track of.
Sinners. Credit: AAP
ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)
Dear Me (Diane Warren: Relentless)
Sweet Dreams of Joy (Viva Verdi!)
Train Dreams (Train Dreams)
Is it gonna be, gonna be Golden? The anthemic earworm from KPop Demon Hunters ought to win this in a walk.
The animated girl group from Netflix’s KPOP Demon Hunters is the frontrunner for the category. Credit: Netflix/KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
ORIGINAL SCORE
One Battle After Another has the most distinctive themes, but it’s hard to beat the musical soundscape of Sinners.
Sinners. Credit: Warner Bros
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: One Battle After Another
There’s a lot of pretty picture-making in this category, from the stunning Train Dreams to the deliciously dark Sinners. If the latter wins, Autumn Durald Arkapaw would become the first woman to ever earn the cinematography Oscar. But One Battle After Another has swept industry awards in this category and offers competition as steep as the rolling hills from the film’s bravura final chase.
One Battle After Another is in cinemas on September 25. Leonardo DiCaprio in the film. Credit: Warner Bros
PRODUCTION DESIGN
He’s known as a master of horror, but nothing seems to terrify director Guillermo del Toro more than the spectre of a small set. His production design has gotten so lavish lately that every set is the size of a football field, so if voters are inclined to reward the most production design, “Frankenstein” wins on acreage alone.
Frankenstein is in cinemas and later on Netflix. Credit: Netflix
COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein puts Mia Goth in some pretty ostentatious outfits, so unless two-time winner Ruth E. Carter makes it a three-peat for her work in Sinners, all those gothic dresses ought to win the day.
Frankenstein. Credit: Netflix
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Here’s the third category where Frankenstein can be considered the front-runner, though if Sinners manages an upset in any of these races, take that as the sign of a significant surge to come.
Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (2025) Credit: Unknown/Netflix
EDITING
Winner: One Battle After Another
Its incredibly propulsive prologue should be enough to earn One Battle After Another this win, but it helps that the rest of this nearly three-hour film passes in the blink of an eye.
One Battle After Another. Credit: Warner Bros
SOUND
The cars do indeed go vroom in F1, which has led the season in sound awards so far. But there’s greater passion for “Sinners,” and I think that film’s sound mixing can engineer an upset.
MICHAEL B. JORDAN as Smoke and Stack in Sinners. Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures;Supplied
VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
The last two Avatar films won this Oscar, and though voters appear to be fatigued with James Cameron’s sci-fi franchise, the category isn’t exactly filled with eye-popping alternatives. Barring a Sinners sweep, Avatar: Fire and Ash feels like a safe bet.
Avatar Fire And Ash. Credit: Supplied
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Winner: Sentimental Value, Norway
It Was Just an Accident, France
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
Although The Secret Agent peaked at the right time, its late-season surge probably isn’t enough to unseat Sentimental Value, which earned more Oscar nominations across the board.
Sentimental Value Credit: Supplied/TheWest
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: The Perfect Neighbor
Come See Me in the Good Light
Between you and me, this category has confounded me almost as much as the best actor race. The prison documentary The Alabama Solution gets high marks, though it’s not an easy watch. Come See Me in the Good Light and Mr. Nobody Against Putin may split the sad-but-inspirational vote. That leaves me picking The Perfect Neighbor, though this film — about the killing of a Black woman by her white neighbor in Florida — missed out on some guild wins it was favoured for.
The Perfect Neighbour is now streaming on Netflix. Credit: Facebook
ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
As the academy has diversified its ranks, voters have been increasingly willing to go highbrow and international in this category, as demonstrated by recent winners “Flow” and “The Boy and the Heron.” Still, without a strong overseas entry this year, “KPop Demon Hunters” should slay all contenders.
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS – (L-R) Mira, Rumi and Zoey. Credit: Netflix/NETFLIX
ANIMATED SHORT
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Will this Oscar go to the accessible heart-warmer about ageing (Retirement Plan) or the avant-garde tear-jerker about the Holocaust (Butterfly)? It’s a tossup, but I’m picking Butterfly.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
In this perennially wrenching category, the front-runner is All the Empty Rooms, a devastating look at the bedrooms left behind by children killed in school shootings.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Winner: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Over the years, I’ve noticed that short-film voters gravitate to French romance and Black Mirror-type allegories. Expect a win, then, for the en français allegory Two People Exchanging Saliva, which depicts a dystopian world in which chic Parisians aren’t allowed to kiss. C’est incroyable!
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