NFL wild-card playoffs: Big questions, judging overreactions

NFL wild-card playoffs: Big questions, judging overreactions

  • Dan Graziano

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    Dan Graziano

    senior NFL national reporter

      Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
  • Ben Solak

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    Ben Solak

    ESPN

      Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

Jan 11, 2026, 12:15 PM

The NFL playoffs are officially underway, with the Rams just narrowly edging the Panthers to kick off the action. Next up is Packers-Bears on Saturday night.

What are the main lessons and takeaways from each wild-card matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the opening round and look forward from all angles. For each wild-card game, Solak is answering one big remaining question and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.

Let’s jump in, making sense of the surprisingly close Rams-Panthers game and Bryce Young‘s future. And check back all weekend for more snap reaction as games happen.

Bryce Young is going to get a top-10 QB contract this offseason.” Overreaction?

Yes, overreaction. Look, massive respect to Young and the Panthers here. The Rams won, but Carolina made all of us who thought it could pull off an upset look good. Young was fearless and fun and everything teams want their quarterbacks to be in big moments. He was 21-for-40 for 264 yards and a touchdown pass, and he also ran for a touchdown. He hit Jalen Coker for the go-ahead TD with 2:39 to go, only to watch his defense inexplicably go into prevent mode with way too much time left, as the Rams marched down the field for the winning score. But Young did everything he could to try to keep his season — in which he threw for 3,011 yards, 23 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions for a division champion — alive. Yes, an 8-9 division champion, but still.

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All of that said, it’s too soon for the Panthers to commit. If Young wants to sign a Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield type of deal, go ahead and do that, Carolina. Well worth it, given the promise Young showed this season and the investment the team has already made in him. But if he wants Tua Tagovailoa money? Uh-uh.

Young is signed through 2026, and the Panthers have an option for 2027, which I feel extremely confident they will pick up because there’s no reason not to do so. They’ll basically have him for $30 million over the next two years if they do that. That’s a totally reasonable investment that would allow them to gather more data and decide whether he’s the franchise guy they believed him to be when they traded up to select him first in 2023. The fifth-year option (and the franchise tag, frankly, if they want to do that in 2028) afford the team the opportunity to make Young prove it again.

Young doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who needs the affirmation that would come with the long-term deal. I’m sure he knows a ton of things he can do better and looks forward to a chance to work on them. Heck, he’s better off waiting and having an even better year in 2026 and negotiating off that. Big hat tip to Young and the Panthers, but it’s still way early. — Graziano

The lingering question: What have the two games against the Panthers taught us about the Rams?

There are plenty of big differences between the Panthers’ regular-season upset of the Rams and their near postseason repeat. The connecting thread is how successfully the Panthers tested the Rams’ defensive backs in coverage. In the first matchup, it was with shot plays late in drives to score big touchdowns; in this game, the Panthers ripped off explosives to Tetairoa McMillan and Coker. The ball came out fast from Young, which helped neutralize the Rams’ pass rush, as Carolina wagered on its supersized receivers against the Rams’ smaller defensive backs. It generally worked.

Nickelback Quentin Lake returned to the starting lineup for the first time since Week 11, and the Panthers immediately tested him, too. Lake was targeted 10 times and allowed 7 receptions for 83 yards, as the big slot Coker in particular gave him trouble (5 catches on 5 targets for 62 yards). As the Rams advance, I’d expect more teams to test that secondary in 50-50 and contested situations, whether deep down the sideline or in the middle of the field. It isn’t a big group, and physical receivers give it challenges accordingly.

Of course, the Rams have struggled with turnovers against Carolina, as well: three takeaways in the first game, then one (plus the blocked punt) in the second game. In general, the Panthers do well discouraging the play-action pass and forcing Matthew Stafford to play more patiently. And when he plays patiently, he’s forced to scramble more or take more checkdowns — not his preferred style of play. — Solak

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