The NFL playoffs’ conference championship round for the 2025 season has two great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know for both.
First, Patriots QB Drake Maye heads on the road for the first time in the playoffs to face a Broncos team that will be without QB Bo Nix (ankle) in the AFC title game. And then the weekend caps off with an NFC West battle between the surging Rams and Seahawks for the chance to go to the Super Bowl.
Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and analytics writer Seth Walder provides a key stat to know for each matchup. NFL analyst Ben Solak also gives us bold predictions, and NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies one matchup X factor to watch. Betting analyst Pam Maldonado picks out an intriguing bet in each of the games, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. Plus, our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection, and four analysts — Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak and Walder — give us final-score picks for both games.
Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for another weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the NFC and AFC championship games.
Jump to a matchup:
NE-DEN | LAR-SEA
3 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | NE -5.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: Linebacker Robert Spillane, who is the signal-caller for a defense that has surrendered only one touchdown in two playoff games, said facing Denver’s offense will be unique. “They do a great job with personnel packages, can align in a lot of funky formations and challenge your rules and schemes defensively. Lot of motions. Lot of ways to get people open. So we have to be really good with our matches, our locations in zone coverage and playing sound in the back end, especially this week.”
Meanwhile, QB Drake Maye has fumbled six times in two playoff games. He said he worked on better ball security in practice, which includes having a timer in his head to make sure he’s not holding on to the football too long. — Mike Reiss
What to know for the NFL playoffs
• Previewing conference championships
• Big questions, judging overreactions
• Bracket and schedule | More content
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Given QB Bo Nix will miss the remainder of the postseason with a fractured right ankle, it will be Jarrett Stidham under center with the Super Bowl on the line. He will become the first QB since Roger Staubach in 1972 to make his first start of a season in a conference championship game. Stidham, whom coach Sean Payton made one of the first free agent signings of his Denver tenure in 2023, has the backing of his teammates and a rugged Broncos defense. Look for him to be more aggressive at times with a willingness to push the ball downfield. As Payton said, “He’s going to rip it, and that’ll be our approach.” — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Denver’s defense allows 5.8 yards per carry against duo runs, and New England runs duo 32% of the time (third most in the NFL). That’s a harsh disparity with the rest of the Broncos’ rush defense, which has allowed 3.3 yards per carry against all non-duo run types, the best in the league. Was this simply variance displayed over 65 duo runs against Denver this season? We’ll find out. — Walder
Bold prediction: Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots’ CB1 and one of the four or five best corners in football, gets only a fraction of the attention Denver’s Pat Surtain II does. But he will make a statement and snag a pick-six on Stidham en route to shutting Courtland Sutton down for the game. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Broncos RB RJ Harvey. Look for Harvey to play a defined role in the pass game. This allows Stidham to take the available throws underneath when Harvey releases out of the backfield, while Payton can also set up his RB on screen concepts. Harvey caught five passes for 46 yards in the divisional round win over Buffalo. — Bowen
One intriguing bet: Broncos +4.5 is a defense bet. The Broncos will squeeze in the red zone, force field goals and turn drives into punts. The Patriots can still move the ball and win without separation, where every point will be hard-earned. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Patriots and Broncos both advanced to this game partly due to drawing defensive pass interference penalties late in their divisional round victories. Referee Alex Kemp’s regular-season crew threw the seventh-most flags for defensive pass interference (1.1 per game). — Seifert
Injuries: Patriots | Broncos
0:33
Pats focused on ball security for AFC title game
Mike Reiss explains how the Patriots are planning to face the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 24, Broncos 21
Moody’s pick: Patriots 23, Broncos 19
Solak’s pick: Patriots 27, Broncos 16
Walder’s pick: Patriots 23, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: NE, 59.1% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Are QB Maye’s turnovers an issue for Patriots? … Broncos have full faith in backup QB Stidham … Broncos open practice window for RB Dobbins’ return
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox | SEA -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Rams: The Rams are seeking their third straight road playoff win, which would be their longest streak in franchise history, according to ESPN Research. They would be the sixth team in NFL history to win three straight road games within a postseason. “That’s just been the story of our year,” receiver Davante Adams said. “I don’t think I would’ve drawn it up that way, but it’s worked out for us and it’s something that we found a way to just bond together and mend to a point where we don’t necessarily need to be at home in order to make it work.” — Sarah Barshop
Pigskin Bracket Challenge
Welcome to ESPN’s NFL playoff bracket game! $50K+ in prizes. FREE to play
What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: If the first two Seahawks-Rams matchups were any indication, this game will go down to the wire. The two teams could not have looked more evenly matched as they split their regular-season series. Los Angeles, which won in Week 11 at SoFi Stadium, had 58 points and 830 yards in those two games combined. Seattle, which prevailed in overtime at Lumen Field in Week 16, totaled 57 points and 829 yards. “They’re a really good team,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said of the Rams. “They play hard. They play together. They’ve got really talented players. Got a great scheme. It’s just a great matchup. It’s right where we should be at this point of the year. It’s pretty cool.” — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Rams average 8.9 air yards per attempt, the highest mark in the league. But the Seahawks’ defense allows a meager 4.7 air yards per attempt to opponents, the lowest among all defenses. The Rams will have their work cut out for them against Seattle’s defense (which also excels against play-action, a Rams staple) as they try to find some shot plays. — Walder
Bold prediction: Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, given the lion’s share of the carries with Zach Charbonnet (knee) out for the season, will set a season high in rushing yards yet again, clearing the 116 mark that he posted just last weekend against the 49ers. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Rams TE Colby Parkinson. In coach Sean McVay’s system, the boot concepts are a major part of the offensive game plan. This season, quarterback Matthew Stafford had a league-high 74 attempts on designed rollouts, which opens the door for TEs to see volume in the pass game. Parkinson has 90 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Rams’ two playoff wins. — Bowen
One intriguing bet: Over 46.5. Both offenses force volume, both QBs lean on play-action, and both meetings this season produced large surges. Even a clean defense can fold against pace, pressure and special teams volatility. One broken play — short-field turnovers, blocked punts for touchdowns or defensive scores — swings this number. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Rams (first) and Seahawks (eighth) were two of the NFL’s least-penalized teams during the regular season, and that has continued into the playoffs. The Seahawks were penalized only twice in the divisional round, and the Rams have had 11 flags in two postseason appearances. Referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw the ninth-most flags per game (14.4). — Seifert
Injuries: Rams | Seahawks
2:01
Greeny: Stafford is HOF lock if he wins Super Bowl, MVP
The “Get Up” crew breaks down what another Super Bowl title and an MVP award would mean for Matthew Stafford’s legacy.
Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 25, Rams 24
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 26, Rams 23
Solak’s pick: Rams 23, Seahawks 17
Walder’s pick: Rams 20, Seahawks 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 53.9% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Kupp and Adams have made Nacua a better receiver … Can RB Walker III carry Seahawks after Charbonnet injury? … Can Darnold overcome his nemesis — the Rams — to get to Super Bowl?
