With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, Major League Baseball’s free agent pool remains flush with talent. It’s not just the best position player available this winter, Kyle Tucker, or arguably the best pitcher, Framber Valdez, still trawling for a representative contract. There are big bats (Bo Bichette, Cody Bellinger), front-of-the-rotation arms (Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen), power (Eugenio Suarez), veteran pitchers (Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito) and even an every-day catcher (J.T. Realmuto). Even the most inactive teams have time to salvage their winter.
Regardless of the reason behind the languid pace of free agency this winter — the collapse of regional sports networks, labor uncertainty, an active strategy to squeeze players as camp approaches or some combination of the lot — the reality, particularly for teams playing at the top of the market, is that this might be their last opportunity to land a front-line bat in free agency for years.
Neither of the next two free agent classes features a hitter as attractive as Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger. The best of next winter: Nico Hoerner, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Lowe, Daulton Varsho, Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres. The top following the 2027 season: Jeremy Pena, William Contreras, Steven Kwan, Adley Rutschman, Isaac Paredes, Munetaka Murakami, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddie Freeman, who will be 38.
It is grim. And with the acquisition cost for trades enormous, it reinforces the leverage the remaining bats hold. Miss out on Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger, all of whom cost only cash, and the ability to recover could be severely mitigated absent breakout seasons from any of the above.
There is time, and it’s what teams are banking on to resolve their winters, but it’s ticking fast. Tucker is going to move soon. Bichette might not be far behind. And they’re the sort of signings that can take a team that needs to make a move and level it up to a winter winner.
Teams winning the offseason
Being the most active team doesn’t always connote the best. In the case of the Orioles, however, the magnitude of their changes significantly upgraded a roster in sore need of an overhaul. And considering they might not be done, they’re aiming to be the second consecutive American League East team to go from worst to first.
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The acquisitions have come in almost every form. Big free agent signing? Check: Pete Alonso, five years for $155 million. Big trade? Check: Right-hander Shane Baz for a cadre of prospects. Bullpen help? Check: Signing Ryan Helsley (two years, $28 million) and reacquiring Andrew Kittredge. More starting depth? Check: Zach Eflin for a year at $10 million. More right-handed power? Check: Taylor Ward in a trade for Grayson Rodriguez.
The Orioles still lack a clear No. 1 starter — neither Kyle Bradish nor Trevor Rogers has pitched at that level consistently — and the back end of the bullpen is a crapshoot. Considering the misery of last season, though, president of baseball operations Mike Elias has filled the cupboard for new manager Craig Albernaz.
The Cubs thrust themselves definitively onto this list over the last week, locking up Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million contract days after acquiring right-hander Edward Cabrera from Miami. Prior to that, Chicago had spent its winter bargain hunting, signing four relief pitchers for around $30 million combined and bringing Tyler Austin back from Japan.
Considering Chicago’s reticence to spend in recent years — including last winter with Bregman — the $35 million-a-year commitment to Bregman is a welcome return to the Cubs not acting like they’re run by St. Helen of the Blessed Shroud. The deal represents the largest per-year salary in Cubs history and is their biggest signing, in terms of potential impact, since adding Jon Lester and Jason Heyward more than a decade ago.
Between Tucker last year and Cabrera this year, the Cubs have chipped away significantly at their prospect depth. That’s the sort of thing teams trying to win don’t shy away from doing. And after losing to the Brewers again in the NL Central race as well as the division series, Chicago will carry its highest Opening Day payroll (currently around $225 million) — and perhaps even get over this year’s $244 million competitive-balance tax threshold.
Urgency is paramount in Toronto after the Blue Jays’ heartbreaking World Series loss to the Dodgers. In a free agent market where high-end pitching continues to linger, Toronto jumped it and guaranteed $210 million for seven years of Dylan Cease. The Jays didn’t stop there, adding Cody Ponce (three years, $30 million), Tyler Rogers (three years, $37 million) and Kazuma Okamoto (four years, $60 million).
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And the Jays aren’t necessarily done. They’re firmly in the mix on Kyle Tucker and still the likeliest team to give him the big-money, long-term deal he’s seeking. They might get priced out of a Bichette return, but they haven’t closed the door on it.
With more than $85 million due off their books next winter, the Blue Jays have not waited around for the market to come to them. They were aggressive when necessary to fill their targeted needs — starting pitching, bullpen, power-and-contact bat — and will now spend the rest of the winter using the cash cudgel that few teams can currently wield.
The Dodgers haven’t done much. There’s no $700 million contract. And no array of deferral-laden deals. You win two World Series in a row, you return every meaningful player, you’re entitled to bask a little bit.
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Through that prism, the Dodger’s three-year, $69 million poaching of closer Edwin Diaz from the New York Mets qualifies as a win. The Dodgers spent the entire postseason running starting pitchers out of their bullpen, so to get arguably the game’s best reliever registered as another coup in a yearslong campaign full of them.
Beyond Díaz and a low-dollar deal for Andy Ibanez, the Dodgers are exercising patience. They just don’t have to be proactive in markets they believe will come to them. Would they like Tucker? Sure. Anyone would. Will they chase him? Nope. Not unless it’s on a shorter-term deal. Same with any free agent, really, because the Dodgers are now at the point where players believe their best chance at a World Series ring runs through Los Angeles, and the calendar is starting to force them to consider options they might not have otherwise.
Oh, the fun time that was had when I reported in mid-November that the Pirates were planning on spending this winter. There was skepticism. Cynicism, even. Because these are the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the last multiyear free agent contract they gave out was Ivan Nova — and that was a decade ago.
Fast forward two months. Pittsburgh traded for second baseman Brandon Lowe and signed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn (two years, $29 million). It got left-handed reliever Mason Montgomery in the Lowe deal and gave Gregory Soto $7.75 million for one year. The Pirates’ depth-for-depth trade with Boston landed them Jhostynxon Garcia, who they hope will be their password for winning.
The Pirates aren’t done, either, and while they aren’t flush enough to play in the Tucker-Bichette-Bellinger sandbox, they’re approaching a $100 million payroll for the first time. This is not necessarily a reason to celebrate — owner Bob Nutting needs to show a lot more than one active winter to reengage a fan base scarred by years of negligence — but at least it is one step in a direction with which Pittsburgh is eminently unfamiliar.
Hold on a second. First the Pirates, and now the White Sox? In a category for winners? This is not a troll. Two years after losing a record 121 games, in the midst of three consecutive 100-plus-loss seasons, the White Sox have managed to secure significant upside without a whole lot of downside this winter — a neat trick for any team but particularly one that is in the middle of a down-to-the-studs rebuild.
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Having Munetaka Murakami fall into their laps makes the winter a win for the Sox regardless of what else they do. Not just because the outlandish projections for a Murakami deal were not met but because if any of the concerns about his play (most of them having to do with swing-and-miss tendencies) are unfounded, he will be worth far, far more than the $34 million Chicago is paying for two of his prime seasons.
Tack on getting one of the best left-handed relievers on the market in Sean Newcomb and hoping to again strike gold on a two-year deal bringing a pitcher back from Asia (last time it was Erick Fedde, this time Anthony Kay) and the White Sox have turned a little more than $50 million into a high-ceiling endeavor with a reasonable floor. Even if the White Sox still have plenty of deficiencies, it’s very good team-building work by GM Chris Getz.
Teams in need of a move
New York Mets
The Mets have added Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. They have subtracted Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Talent-wise, that is at best a push, and while the lingering feeling that the Mets needed to completely upend their clubhouse coming off their September collapse drove much of their decision-making, competing in the NL East will presumably take more additions.
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Not everyone agrees with that sentiment, even if it’s overwhelming among a fed-up Mets fan base. The Steamer projection system has the 2026 Mets with the third-best record in baseball, behind only the Dodgers and Braves. So it’s not as if the Mets are the Rockies or Nationals, barren at the big league level. They are sorely lacking outfield and starting pitching depth, though, so whether it’s a run at Tucker, a deal for Valdez to be the Opening Day starter they need or both, president of baseball operations David Stearns has work to do.
The Mets’ $50 million-per-year offer to Tucker, reported by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, is a good place to start, particularly for a team not interested in a longer-term deal. Sometime within the next week, Tucker is going to decide where he’ll play for the foreseeable future, and landing the best player in free agency for the second consecutive season — even if he is redundant — is the kind of power move moneyed teams have the luxury of making. With or without Tucker, Valdez makes too much sense for the Mets not to place him atop a rotation with Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea, with Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat back in the minor leagues for further seasoning.
If free agency doesn’t whet their appetite, teams in the trade market have plenty of interest in a farm system that has drastically improved in recent years. It’s not just the three big-league-ready arms — Sproat is the likeliest among them to move — but others like Jonathan Santucci and R.J. Gordon who have moved quickly and could be in a rotation by 2027. Whether it’s trading for Freddy Peralta or potentially Tarik Skubal on the pitching side or someone who would require less in return on the hitting side (Lars Nootbaar is worth watching), the Mets are one of the few teams that can get whoever they want.
Now they just need to do it.
Speaking of missing on guys they wanted, the Red Sox have become the new Blue Jays. Toronto’s perpetual runner-up status in free agency changed overnight with their World Series run, and considering the number of players they’ve targeted and fallen short on — in the past two years alone, Juan Soto, Max Fried, Alonso and Bregman stand out — the Red Sox need to do one of two things: win more or bid higher.
Now, it’s not as if the Red Sox have been entirely stagnant. They are the only team not to sign a major league free agent, yes, but they did get Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo via trade. It’s not enough, though. Not in the AL East, let alone the entire landscape of the game.
Regardless of how interested owner John Henry is or isn’t in the Red Sox, he knows business, and it is generally not good business to alienate paying customers through degradation of product. If the season started today, the Red Sox would be a playoff contender, sure, but with Toronto and Baltimore improved and the Yankees the Yankees, is that enough?
Getting Bichette, who’s the obvious choice with Bregman gone and Ketel Marte off the trade market, would provide a huge boost. There are other pivots to make — Nico Hoerner, Brendan Donovan or Isaac Paredes, with the right-handed bats more appealing — but ultimately all that matters is: Do they have enough talent? There are far worse places to start than with Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony, but the answer, compared to their peers, is: No.
The Yankees shipped out four prospects for left-hander Ryan Weathers, the first new player they acquired this winter. Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer, Amed Rosario, Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough re-signed, and that’s that. Before landing Weathers — whose arrival could pave the way for more dealing from their minor league starting depth — New York had lost a number of contributors from its 94-win team, with Williams and Weaver decamping to the Mets and Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt still free agents.
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Re-signing Bellinger is the most obvious and likely outcome, even if the Yankees are stuck on giving him five years and Bellinger is seeking seven. If no deal materializes, there’s ample reason to pursue Tucker (the Yankees signing the best player available in free agency is a tried-and-true tradition, regardless of the past few years), Bichette (who could play shortstop this year and slide over to second when Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits free agency next winter) or Hoerner (who the Cubs don’t want to trade but will for the right kind of arm).
The Yankees’ pitching has a chance to be really good, particularly if Cam Schlittler continues his ascent and Gerrit Cole returns from Tommy John surgery even at 80% of his former self and Weathers stays healthy. The lineup will hit home runs. The bullpen additions at last summer’s trade deadline form a solid foundation. There’s reason to believe these Yankees, as currently constituted, can be good. But they’re the Yankees. Good isn’t good enough. The need for more is endless.
This is mostly a function of the Brewers carrying the best record in baseball last year and the expectation that doing so warrants an uncompromising follow-up to ensure it ends with gold rings rather than disappointment. Expecting that of the Brewers, of course, would be foolish. This is the team that leading into its 97-win season signed one free agent for $4.25 million.
Still, it would be nice for the Brewers, whose front office has put together a tremendous big league roster with a top-five farm system to boot, to have at least a little money to spend and add talent beyond Akil Baddoo (free agent) and Angel Zerpa (trade), their lone acquisitions this winter. The Brewers instead are spending the winter talking about trading their best pitcher (Peralta). And while the churning of free-agents-to-be has been part of what has sustained Milwaukee’s success in recent years, it’s a thankless cycle for fans and front office alike.
Ultimately, the Brewers will sign someone who helps because that’s what they do. They work the margins, they hunt value, they make do. And whether it’s via trade or on one-year deals, they’ll hop back on the hamster wheel and leave everyone wondering what should’ve been.
Pretty much everything that was said about the Brewers goes for the Guardians. They annually win more games than projections say they will. They consistently deal veteran players before they reach free agency, lest they receive only a measly draft pick for them leaving. And they do not spend money.
They have signed four players this winter: backup catcher Austin Hedges and three relievers, Shawn Armstrong, Colin Holderman and Connor Brogdon. They return a lineup that ranked 29th in each of the triple-slash categories. They should sign a hitter. Multiple hitters. Any hitter, really. Something to give them the shot they deserve to try to win the AL Central for the third consecutive season and fourth time in five years. And while it won’t be Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger, others without jobs include Eugenio Suarez, Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader and Marcell Ozuna.
The Phillies have had a perfectly fine winter. They fought off a swarm of interested teams to lock down Kyle Schwarber for five years and $150 million. They added another late-inning arm in Brad Keller, who joins Jhoan Duran to form one of the best eighth-and-ninth-inning combinations in baseball. They gave Adolis Garcia a one-year, $10 million deal to see if he can recapture his form. Touted prospect Justin Crawford is going to get a chance to win the center field job. Shortstop Aidan Miller is big league ready. The Phillies are reloading on the fly.
One more elite bat would go a long way to lengthening Philadelphia’s lineup, though, and that’s what makes Bichette so interesting. Signing him would have a domino effect, with Bichette occupying second base, Bryson Stott moving to third and Philadelphia presumably needing to find another home for Alec Bohm. Too many players is a good problem to have.
The Phillies have seven impending free agents on their roster who make more than $80 million combined. Adding Bichette to a core of Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and the kids would be a pretty dandy way to start version 2.0 of the Harper-era Phillies.
