The United States has been increasing its strikes for months on alleged drug smuggling boats originating from Venezuela as President Donald Trump launches a war to stop the flow of narcotics into America.
But now Trump has escalated the conflict by completing a large-scale attack on Venezuela’s capital to capture leader Nicolas Maduro who is facing narco-terrorism charges in America.
Here’s what you need to know about Venezuela and the history of tensions with the US.
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President Nicolas Maduro
Maduro was sworn in on January 10, 2025, for a new term that is expected to last until 2031.
His inauguration followed a declaration of victory in a July 2024 presidential election, which was disputed by the opposition and several governments in the region.
He has been in power for almost 13 years since the death of his “political father,” Hugo Chávez, who ruled for nearly 14 years.
Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third term after an election widely seen as fraudulent. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAPNicolas Maduro says the US is pursuing regime change to take control of Venezuela’s oil reserves. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAP
Chronology of tensions with the US
Tensions between Venezuela and the United States have risen throughout 2025. Trump began his second presidential term a few days after Maduro’s inauguration and has since exerted various forms of pressure.
After returning to the White House, Trump said he did not consider Maduro to be a democratically elected ruler. He also announced a policy of mass deportations, arguing that many migrants arriving in the US — including Venezuelans — bring crime and other ills with them, and he designated the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization.
Maduro argued that his government is legitimate, rejected the notion that Venezuelan migrants are criminals and asserted that Venezuelan authorities are fighting the Tren de Aragua gang.
The president even claimed that this criminal organisation has already been dismantled, although he has not presented any evidence of that.
In March, tensions between the two governments escalated when the US deported more than 200 Venezuelan migrants, labelling them criminals, to the Terrorism Confinement Centre (Cecot) in El Salvador.
Venezuela criticised the move, calling it a “kidnapping,” and launched a campaign to demand their return. In July, following negotiations, Washington and Caracas reached an agreement that resulted in the return to Venezuela of the men sent to Cecot and the release of 10 Americans detained in Venezuela.
US Coast Guard seizes third Venezuelan oil tanker in escalating standoff Credit: 7NEWSUS Coast Guard seizes third Venezuelan oil tanker in escalating standoff Credit: 7NEWS
That same month, however, the US again increased pressure on Venezuela. The Treasury Department accused Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soles, an alleged criminal organisation that, according to Washington, engages in drug trafficking and money laundering.
In August, the US also raised to US$50 million ($74 million) a reward for “information leading to the arrest and/or conviction” of Maduro for violating US narcotics laws. The Venezuelan president has denied any wrongdoing.
By September, despite some attempts at rapprochement and calls for dialogue, tensions had escalated again.
The US deployed military ships and aircraft to the Caribbean, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking, and began a series of attacks on boats it claimed were attempting to smuggle drugs into its territory.
By mid-December, at least 30 vessels had been destroyed in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 people.
Venezuela says these actions are illegal and meant to destabilise the Maduro government, a position shared by Colombia, which has been alarmed by US operations off its coast. However, the US says it will continue attacks aimed at curbing the influx of narcotics.
In December, Trump ordered a “total blockade” of US-sanctioned oil tankers, and the Coast Guard began intercepting vessels leaving from or arriving at the Venezuelan coast.
US Coast Guard seizes third Venezuelan oil tanker in escalating standoff Credit: 7NEWSUS ramps up pressure on Venezuela with third oil tanker seizure Credit: 7NEWS
Trump, who had already authorised CIA operations inside Venezuela, said on December 12 that military ground actions in Venezuela would start soon because, he asserted, Washington will not allow drug traffickers to destroy American youth.
In this context, the CIA carried out a drone strike in December against a port facility on the coast of Venezuela, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN, marking the first known US attack on a target within that country.
The site is believed to have been used by the Tren de Aragua gang to store drugs, the sources added.
The Venezuelan government has not commented on the matter.
What happened on Saturday?
The United States has conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela’s capital city, with its president being captured and flown out of the country, according to Trump.
Maduro was arrested to stand trial inside the US, according to a Republican senator who says he spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. CNN has reached out to the State Department for comment.
The Venezuelan government does not know the whereabouts of Maduro or First Lady Cilia Flores, the country’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez said earlier, demanding proof of life from the US.
The attack has killed officials, military personnel and civilians across the country, she said.
Venezuela’s defence minister said the US attack impacted urban areas across Venezuela with missiles and rockets, vowing to resist what he called an “invasion” and “the greatest outrage the country has suffered.”
Residents rushed into the streets of Caracas amid the sound of explosions and aircraft. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAPSites such as La Carlota airport in Caracas are among places hit in an apparent attack on Venezuela. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAP
What now?
What happens next in Venezuela is far from clear. The country’s constitution states that power will pass to Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez.
But the future of the regime is in doubt, and the opposition – within and outside the country – will likely see this moment as a critical opportunity.
Venezuela’s opposition says the rightful president is the exiled politician Edmundo Gonzalez.
Amid the uncertainty, there are a range of scenarios.
The first is the constitutional path – Article 233 – is followed. In what it calls the “absolute absence” of the president, the executive vice president – Delcy Rodriguez – takes over and calls for an election within 30 days. The newly elected president then serves a full six-year term.
Secondly, the regime collapses and its senior figures resign or flee. The most likely opposition candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, who ran in the 2024 election.
Gonzales, an academic and long-time diplomat, is now in exile in Spain. Gonzales is supported by the recent winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, democratic activist María Corina Machado.
US President Donald Trump declined to say if the CIA was involved in the Venezuela operation. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAPShamans in Peru have foreseen bad news for presidents Donald Trump and Nicolas Maduro. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAP
Speaking in Oslo last month after receiving the Prize, Machado said her movement was preparing for “an orderly and peaceful transition” once Maduro was gone.
She said in December that González had invited her to be vice-president and that “the vast majority” of the police and armed forces would follow the new administration’s orders once the political transition began.
Or a military take-over.
The current Defence Minister is Vladimir Padrino López, who has spoken since the US strikes early Saturday, saying Venezuela would resist the presence of foreign troops in the country.
“This invasion represents the greatest outrage the country has suffered,” he added.
Main political allies
Since the beginning of the 21st century, Venezuela has established alliances and close ties with countries that oppose the regional and global leadership of the United States.
In Latin America, its closest allies are Cuba and Nicaragua, forming a group of three of the region’s most authoritarian and politically isolated countries.
“They perceive each other as necessary,” Venezuelan political scientist Ángel Álvarez told CNN.
Caracas once had stronger ties with other leftist governments, such as those of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, but these nations distanced themselves after the 2024 presidential elections.
However, some bridges have been rebuilt with shows of support from Brasília and Bogotá in the face of the US military deployment off Venezuela’s coast.
Australia has been dragged into the escalating tension between Venezuela and the US. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAPCARACAS, VENEZUELA – NOVEMBER 25: President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro speaks during a military ceremony commemorating the 200th anniversary of the Venezuelan independence hero Simon Bolivar’s ‘Sword of Peru’ on November 25, 2025, in Caracas, Venezuela. The United States recently designated the “Cartel De Los Soles” (Cartel of The Suns) as a foreign terrorist organization, a group allegedly led by the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and which, it is presumed, includes high-ranking members of the Venezuelan government. (Photo by Jesus Vargas/Getty Images) Credit: Jesus Vargas/Getty Images
Caracas also has other, smaller allies in the Caribbean, forged during the oil boom, although in November the Maduro government suffered two setbacks with the defeat of the ruling party in Honduras and in the archipelago of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. A few months earlier, it also lamented the electoral defeat of Bolivia’s ruling Movement for Socialism, with which it had close ties.
Outside the region, Maduro has strengthened relations with two major powers: China and Russia. In November, experts asserted that the relationship with Beijing is one of “deep, broad, and stable trust,” adding that he is working to deepen cooperation with Moscow. Venezuela also has reinforced its diplomatic ties with Iran, another US adversary.
However, analysts consulted by CNN say the prospect that these countries would get involved in a US-Venezuelan military conflict is remote.
Military capability
Under the government of Chávez, the Bolivarian National Armed Forces of Venezuela (FANB) rose to become a regional military power, largely through the sustained purchase of Russian equipment.
However, the condition of the equipment and the training of the personnel remain a mystery in a country that has endured a decade of economic hardship.
Venezuela ranks 50th out of 145 countries in the 2025 rankings by the Global Fire Power website, based on official statistics and estimates. The United States ranks 1st, first, and some of Venezuela’s neighbors, such as Colombia (46th) and Brazil (11th), rank higher.
FANB has approximately 123,000 active soldiers, including 63,000 in the army; 25,500 in the navy; 11,500 in the air force and 23,000 in the national guard, in addition to 8,000 reservists, according to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
After years of stagnation, Venezuela “recently resumed modest maintenance and modernization efforts,” according to an IISS report in 2024.
The unknown factor is the size and capacity of its militias, mobilised in recent months following the US naval deployment. Maduro said he expected militia members, previously estimated at a few hundred thousand, to reach more than 8 million.
The army has purchased 92 T-72B1 tanks and 123 BMP-3 armored personnel carriers from Russia, which equip the armored brigades alongside 81 AMX-30 tanks previously acquired from France. Russian artillery systems such as the Msta-S self-propelled gun and the Smerch rocket launcher are also prominent.
National Guard armored vehicles block an avenue leading to Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Cristian Hernandez) Credit: Cristian Hernandez/APUS authorities proclaimed a blockade of oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAP
In terms of military aviation, Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MK2 twin-engine fighter-bombers are the pride of the Venezuelan defense system and are among the most powerful aircraft on the continent.
But between accidents and logistical problems, it is unclear how many of the 25 aircraft purchased are still flying, according to a report by the Venezuelan independent monitoring group Control Ciudadano.
On the other hand, among its many antiaircraft missile systems, Venezuela’s 12 S-300 batteries (with a maximum range of 200 kilometres), nine Buk systems, and 44 Pechora systems (medium-range) stand out.
All are Russian-manufactured — a system that the FANB calls “Multi-Layer Aerospace Defense.” These three weapon systems are mobile: They are mounted on vehicles for rapid deployment and surpass any others deployed in Latin America in capability and technology.
Additionally, Venezuela says it has 5,000 Igla-S man-portable missiles — also Russian — that are operated by a single person and capable of shooting down targets at low altitude and short range.
For its part, the navy has lagged in arms purchases. It operates one Mariscal Sucre-class frigate (built in Italy) and one Type 209 submarine (built in Germany) in its fleet, according to the IISS, and has nine ocean and coastal patrol vessels, four of which were purchased from Spain.
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