Ki Young Ju’s view challenges both crash narratives and quick-bull expectations, pointing instead to a prolonged period of low excitement.
Bitcoin (BTC) inflows have dried up, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who said that the market is likely heading into several months of flat, uneventful price movement rather than a dramatic sell-off.
His comments matter because they challenge both crash fears and near-term bull expectations at a time when Bitcoin is trading just below key recovery levels after a volatile end to 2025.
Capital Rotation Replaces the Old Bitcoin Cycle
Writing on X, Ki noted that fresh capital is no longer flowing into Bitcoin in a meaningful way. Instead, money has rotated into equities and commodities, which he referred to as “stocks and shiny rocks.” He argued that this shift, combined with structural changes in the market, makes timing inflows far less useful than in earlier cycles.
According to Ki, the traditional pattern where large holders sold into retail demand has weakened. Long-term institutional ownership has changed supply behavior, and he dismissed fears that major corporate holders will suddenly flood the market with coins. He pointed to Strategy’s 673,000 BTC stash, saying the firm is unlikely to sell a meaningful portion.
As a result, Ki said a deep drawdown similar to prior bear markets looks unlikely. Instead of a violent drop from the all-time high, he expects what he described as “boring sideways” price action for the next few months. He added a blunt warning to traders betting on a sudden collapse:
“Shorting here hoping for a nuke? Good luck with that.”
Not everyone agreed. A reply from X user Inner Edition captured frustration among smaller investors, saying they were “extremely disappointed” and questioning whether a bull market would even arrive. Ki responded by urging patience, comparing Bitcoin to something that improves with time rather than quick speculation.
On-chain Data Backs a Slow, Grinding Phase
A recent report by analyst CryptoZeno gives context to Ki’s outlook. According to them, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is sitting near the 0.3 level, a zone that has often acted as a holding range between recovery and renewed risk-taking. The reading suggests average holders are back in modest profit, but nowhere near the excess seen late in past cycles.
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Glassnode also echoed that view in its Week On-Chain report released January 7, which described the flagship cryptocurrency entering 2026 with a “cleaner market structure” after a major reset. Profit-taking has cooled, derivatives positioning has been cleared, and spot ETF flows in the U.S. have started to turn positive again, though still uneven.
However, other market watchers remain split. For example, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that BTC’s 2026 recovery can continue if regulatory uncertainty in Washington eases and equity markets avoid a steep drop. Meanwhile, more cautious voices, such as the pseudonymous Doctor Profit, still see risks of lower prices later this year, despite a limited downside in the short term.
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