For many WGA members, one fact loomed large over these negotiations: The 2023 writers strike coincided with a sharp contraction in employment, with Writers Guild data showing television writing jobs falling 42% year over year in the 2023–24 season—equating to there being roughly 1,300 fewer positions.
The SAG-AFTRA negotiations are proceeding under a media blackout, so people aren’t saying much. The actors union declined a request for an interview, and the AMPTP did not respond. However, underneath the silence is a shared reluctance to test a strike again because of fears that it might worsen the industry’s ongoing contraction, according to multiple industry sources who spoke to VF.
Kuntz describes the dynamic between the studios and the unions as “two uncertain and weak entities negotiating” in an environment completely different from the one they were in last time. “In 2026 the old world is gone,” Kuntz says.
The previous SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes revolved around familiar matters—streaming residuals, minimum pay, mini writers rooms, and early concerns about artificial intelligence. The current talks are unfolding in a landscape where those concerns have metastasized into something harder to contain. Even the gains from the last contracts have proved limited for the unions. Changes to streaming residuals helped, but they did not solve the broader, interconnected problems of underemployment and runaway productions.
“AI has advanced so much faster than anybody thought it would,” Kuntz says. “It’s threatening to replace just about everybody.”
Hollywood’s biggest players have struck a bullish tone on AI, though they have been careful not to spook the talent. At Netflix, executives have framed artificial intelligence as a behind-the-scenes upgrade that can make visual effects work more efficient, while stressing that it will “help” creators rather than replace them. Paramount Skydance, facing sharp financial pressure as it prepares to take on a massive debt load in its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, has plans to expand its AI-focused engineering staff tenfold, though CEO David Ellison has said he doesn’t think “AI is a replacement for creativity.”
Behind the scenes, multiple producers who spoke to VF suggest an almost Darwinian view of AI’s impact. If AI ultimately produces a better product than humans do, they argue, the industry won’t be able to justify protecting human-made work because audiences will naturally gravitate toward the most entertaining content regardless of its origin. Additionally, as Dax Shepard argued on his Armchair Expert podcast during the strikes in 2023, trying to preserve human labor could backfire and cede creative ground to other countries that are willing to better embrace the technology. For the studios, the uncomfortable premise is unavoidable: If AI is better and more efficient, the market will reward it and Hollywood will have to adapt or risk obsolescence.
Creatives mostly reject that argument. They say human authorship itself adds value. Additionally, several writers tell VF that if AI replaces them, the industry risks hollowing out the pipeline that produces showrunners and others who can fill creative leadership positions. Some mid-level writers say that the pipeline has already been hollowed out by the overall production contraction. The industry is making fewer shows with smaller episode orders. Take HBO, for example. It produced 16 originals in 2025 compared to 32 the year prior. The cable network once produced 18-episode seasons of original comedies. Meanwhile, The White Lotus has featured an average of seven episodes per season; Euphoria has done eight episodes each season. The mid-level writers add that the WGA’s 2023 contract—while touted as a win for staffing—has done less to protect their ranks than it has for those of more senior writers.
