FROM THE DESK OF RAY JOSEPH
What’s next for Haiti in terms of governance?
Within two months, on February 7, 2026, the governance experiment imposed by the international community on Haiti will officially reach its end. The question now arises: what future is being envisaged for a country that has lost its sovereignty and has gradually turned into a political laboratory for Western powers?
From the Assassination of Jovenel Moïse to the Rise of Ariel Henry
Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on July 7, 2021, foreign actors have effectively assumed responsibility over Haiti’s political management. Thirteen days after the crime, on July 19, the CORE Group of Western diplomats intervened—through a tweet—to dismiss Acting Prime Minister Claude Joseph and to elevate Dr. Ariel Henry to the role of Prime Minister.
During this transitional period, Claude Joseph had taken on both the interim premiership and the presidential responsibilities following Moïse’s death.
Dr. Henry remained in office for nearly three years. No significant progress was observed in combating gang expansion, which continued to intensify across the capital. While returning from Nairobi—where he sought Kenya’s support for a security mission in Haiti—he stopped in the United States. There, under pressure, he resigned on April 24, 2024, receiving asylum in the U.S. His departure likely spared his life, as gangs controlling the Port-au-Prince airport had threatened to arrest him upon arrival.
The Transitional Presidential Council (TPC)
In parallel, the United States and CARICOM convened a conference in Kingston, Jamaica, leading to the creation of the nine-member Transitional Presidential Council (TPC). After several days of discussions involving Haitian representatives from various sectors, the TPC was formally established on March 11, 2024, and sworn into office in Port-au-Prince on April 25, 2024. Its mandate extends until February 7, 2026.
On April 12, 2024, CARICOM issued a statement from Georgetown, Guyana, outlining the mission of the new body. The Council, according to this communiqué, is expected to restore dignity, democratic legitimacy, stability, institutional functioning, and sovereignty in Haiti.
CARICOM emphasized several priorities:
- Security: Ensure safety and access to essential services.
- Constitutional and Institutional Reforms: Reestablish functional governance structures.
- Elections: Prepare credible electoral processes to restore democratic legitimacy.
- Citizen Participation: Foster inclusive governance by engaging civil society.
- Protection of National Sovereignty: Maintain Haiti’s integrity throughout the transition.
CARICOM concluded by stressing that the council’s actions would be closely monitored by the international community, including CARICOM itself, to ensure success.
Nineteen Months Later: What Has the TPC Actually Achieved?
Any evaluation of the TPC’s performance will inevitably confront major shortcomings. Observers—both Haitian citizens and foreign stakeholders—have watched gangs expand into new territories, worsening the security climate. None of the anticipated constitutional or institutional reforms have materialized. Elections remain entirely out of reach. Sovereignty remains elusive.
These failures raise pressing questions as February 7 approaches:
- Will the international community extend the mandate of a council that has not met its objectives?
- Will it reshape the TPC to include broader political participation?
- Will it instead pivot toward a solution closer to the Haitian Constitution, which foresees a provisional president chosen from the Cour de Cassation and a prime minister leading the government?
- If no suitable judge is available, will a reputable Haitian civilian be entrusted with the task?
What Should Come Next?
A durable solution, according to the author, must include the reorganization of the Haitian Armed Forces under strict civilian oversight within an authentically democratic framework. The dissolution of the army in January 1995 by President Jean-Bertrand Aristide—upon his return from exile under U.S. military protection—had significant long-term consequences. Aristide replaced the army with the Chimères, private militias that later multiplied, particularly under the presidency of Michel Joseph Martelly (2011–2016), supported by Laurent Salvador Lamothe.
The result is a country today overwhelmed by gangs while former leaders prosper abroad from illicit gains accumulated at the expense of a population trapped in a deteriorating state.
I rest my case.
source : Haiti-Observateur
Journal 3- 10 décembre 2025qxp.qxp_HO 12/3/25
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