PHILADELPHIA (WPVI) — Philadelphia has been stuck in a snow drought, with four straight winters of below-average snowfall. But there is some hope for snow lovers this season.

This winter is expected to bring more snow than five of the past six winters.

The Setup

Water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are running below average, signaling a weak La Niña that is likely to persist through winter.

Historically, La Niña and snow have an adverse relationship, especially for weak La Niñas. Eighty percent of past winters with weak La Niñas have produced below-average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic.

The strength of this year’s La Niña closely matches the winter of 2016-17, when Philadelphia saw about 15 inches of snow.

That’s a big driver even this year, as well as the main jetstream is going to lock the core of the cold air up in the northern Plains and over the Great Lakes, with mild and dry conditions in the Deep South. That puts us in between a battle zone here between those two air masses. Now, at times, the jet stream is going to dip across the eastern U.S., giving us glancing blows of cold air.

Storm Tracks

Two storm patterns are expected. The first is those fast-moving clipper systems that drive most of the moisture to our north and pull up a burst of mild air into our region.

The second will bring some bigger storms coming in from the Tennessee Valley, then up through the coastal plains of the mid-Atlantic. These often start as snow, but they transition mostly to a wintry mix or even just that cold, plain old rain.

One or two of these could become nor’easters, but forecasters say blockbuster snowstorms are unlikely for Philadelphia. Ski resorts in New England, however, could benefit.

Winter Outlook

Temperatures should average near normal, with cold spells early in December and milder breaks in between. Expect an active
storm track and big temperature swings, but most of the storms tracking over us or to the north and west mean the threat of a big snowstorm with over a foot is very low.

Snowfall Forecast

• Lehigh Valley: 22-26 inches

• Philadelphia: 14-18 inches

• Jersey Shore: 8-12 inches

Even though this is a below-average snowfall prediction, many will still consider this an active winter season, although very few will be pure snowstorms.

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