Eagles
Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The 19–11 loss to the New York Giants deepened Philadelphia’s struggles. With seven straight losses, a 2–7 record and eight games remaining, the Eagles head into their bye week with their playoff hopes depending on increasingly unlikely scenarios.
Mathematically, they could still go 10–7 by winning out, but given how they’ve played lately, it’s worth looking at the minimum they’d need to get in: winning four of their final eight games and ending the season with a 6–11 record.
To pull that off, they would need to beat the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, then pick up two more wins against any of their other six opponents.
With those four wins added to the two they already have, their path would be to win the NFC East, counting on a historic collapse by all three division rivals.
🔵 New York Giants
After losing their Week 10 opener, New York stands at 5–3–1 with eight games remaining.
For Philadelphia to overtake New York with just six wins, the Giants must lose all eight of those games.
That would leave New York with a 5–11–1 record behind the Eagles.
⭐ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas enters this stretch at 4–5. In our scenario, the Cowboys need to lose seven of their eight remaining games, with their only victory coming against the Giants in Week 17.
Dallas would finish 5–12, also behind Philadelphia.
The Thanksgiving Day matchup is crucial for the Eagles: a win in Dallas gives Philadelphia another victory while handing a division rival a loss.
🟡 Washington Commanders
With their 24–21 victory over the Giants on Thursday, November 12, Washington improved to 3–5–1 and delivered the first result Philadelphia needed.
Based on our projected results, the Commanders still need to beat Dallas in the final week and lose their other seven games.
Washington’s final record would be 4–12–1. Together, those two results help keep New York and Dallas behind Philadelphia.
🏈 What About the Wild Card Spots?
Winning the NFC East guarantees a playoff berth, but there is another route: the three Wild Card spots available in each conference.
The Eagles could finish second or even third in their division and still make the playoffs, provided they finish ahead of enough other NFC contenders.
The competition is tough. The NFC North already has four teams with at least six wins: the Bears, Lions, Vikings and Packers. In the NFC West, the 49ers lead at 7–1, while the Seahawks and Rams both sit at 5–4.
With so many teams ahead of them, securing a Wild Card spot is far more difficult. That’s why our calculations focus on winning the division.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
💚 There’s Still Hope in the Numbers
If our best-case scenario played out, Philadelphia would win the NFC East with a 6–11 record and earn a playoff berth as division champions.
Projections following Week 9 show just how difficult that would be: Pro Football Rankings gives Philadelphia just a 1% chance of making the playoffs, while DGB Ratings puts the figure at 2%. The seven-game losing streak, the remaining schedule and the performance of their competitors help explain those numbers.
The bye week gives the Eagles time to address their problems before hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on November 22. In the meantime, every result within the division could change Philadelphia’s chances.
A postseason berth is still within reach, but the margin for error is razor-thin. The Eagles will need to get back on track and benefit from a series of favorable results to turn what looks like a lost season into one of the most unexpected comebacks in NFL history.
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I’m from Córdoba, Argentina, and I live in Montevideo, Uruguay.
My passion for the Birds started a few years … More about Fede Carballo
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