Anthony Albanese has flown back to Australia from the Caribbean amid renewed talk inside Labor about whether the Prime Minister could soon reshuffle his frontbench to help lift the Government out of its mid-term malaise.
While the PM has been overseas attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, discussion among government MPs about their poor standing in opinion polls has intensified.
Much of the focus has been on Australia’s stalling economy, particularly after this week’s latest rise in interest rates, and speculation about the relationship between the PM and his Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
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Some Labor MPs have told The Nightly they believe there has been a concerted campaign from some of their colleagues internally to undermine Dr Chalmers over unpopular measures in the May budget.
A recent article by veteran political columnist Niki Savva suggesting “the usual tensions between prime minister and treasurer, which simmer when the Government looks cooked, could easily boil over” has heightened the discussion.
The article published this week also talks up the prospect of rising star and Health Minister Mark Butler as “the most likely successor to Albanese — then, surprise, speculation Chalmers could be sacked as treasurer and replaced with Butler”.
Throughout 2026 Minister Butler’s public profile has steadily risen with the South Australian now considered the most likely future Labor leadership option from Mr Albanese’s own left faction.
Dr Chalmers, a right faction Labor figure and long considered a future PM, is widely perceived as having suffered significant political damage following broken promises in the May Budget.
Other potential leadership contenders such as Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke are also perceived to have suffered political damage in the past year, along with Energy Minister Chris Bowen.
Discussion over a looming Government’s frontbench reshuffle also involves speculation about the future of key ministers including Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Trade Minister Don Farrell, Transport Minister Catherine King and Education Minister Jason Clare.
Figures close to the PM insist Senator Wong and Farrell are unlikely to leave politics before the next election, but there is increasing anticipation that Ministers King and Clare will announce their departures in the new year.
Most Labor MPs believe the Prime Minister is reluctant to announce any frontbench reshuffle until 2027, a year out from when the next Federal election is due.
“There are no winners when there’s a reshuffle — those who are promoted feel like it was long overdue, while anyone who is demoted becomes dangerous,” one Labor MP tells The Nightly.
“Albo is a savvy political operator and knows the danger of doing any early or unnecessary reshuffle — he will wait for the right moment to do so,” the government figure said.
Following a week which saw interest rates lifted and the Trump administration suffer a devastating defeat in the US midterm elections, the Treasurer on Friday published his own opinion piece declaring “Australians are paying a hefty price” for the Iran war.
“Two related events this week remind us just how volatile the economic environment is and why that’s heaping pressure on people,” the Treasurer wrote, in a piece which his colleagues believe was well timed to hit back at internal criticism.
“The first was the RBA’s decision to lift interest rates again, which will stretch family budgets further and slow our economy. The second was the US midterm elections, now seen as a referendum on the Iran war and its consequences for fuel prices and inflation more broadly.”
Expect Dr Chalmers to intensify his attacks against the Trump administration’s war in Iran, as he fights to regain the economic narrative.
