ORCHARD PARK, NY — No, I don’t rule out the Patriots pulling off an upset over the Bills today in their brand-spanking-new palace.
The Bills’ defense isn’t very good, at least not yet, under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. Transitions always take time, and what we have seen on film after the snap isn’t close to what I expect from the Rex Ryan disciple. So things should be a little cleaner for Drake Maye to finally stack some success. He should be more decisive by default on Sunday. Have to start somewhere.
I just don’t think the Patriots’ defense can hold down Josh Allen long enough for the offense to get some traction. Maybe if they had Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore. I’d also feel better about the Patriots’ chances if Buffalo didn’t have one of those perfect games, if you’re a coach: you get the victory, but there was enough bad and sloppy play so you can ride them all week. Buffalo will be looking to clean some things up.
So, in all likelihood, unless we see Cowboy Josh Allen On Steroids, the Patriots will fall to 1-3, and the noise will continue for another week. Wonderful.
But the season will be far from over … if Maye can show some progress. Here are five reasons for optimism, even if the Patriots will have underachieved through 23.5% of the schedule:
1. The Patriots have lost to the cream of the crop.
Pretty soon people will be doing their quarter-season assessments, and I’m fairly certain the Seahawks, Jaguars and Bills will be near the top of the lists for their respective conferences. Depending on health, I would not be surprised to see any of those teams in the Super Bowl. I think people are majorly sleeping on the Jaguars. That’s a damn good team in all three phases, and I’d argue they are the best team the Patriots have faced.
Actually, total DVOA backs me up. The Jaguars are No. 2, the Bills are 3, and the Seahawks are 6th, after their Old Darnold loss to the Commanders.
The Patriots have faced the third-toughest overall schedule by DVOA so far, and that doesn’t even include the Bills yet. The rest of the way, it’s 28th — and that includes the Bills twice.
Take away how the losses have looked and happened — I know, you can’t and probably shouldn’t, but work with me — was it really outlandish to predict the Patriots, with Mike “1-2” Vrabel at the helm (that’s 4-straight seasons, and 4 of 7), to predict the Patriots would begin the season with a 1-3 record?
Oh, and to make Maye’s Army feel a little bit better, the Patriots have faced the toughest offensive schedule so far. It’s still too early for concrete advanced analytics, but the Patriots are set to take on the sixth-easiest offensive schedule for the rest of the season.
2. The schedule does soften.
The Patriots obviously can’t be counted on to beat any teams with Maye turning the ball over, but the schedule is set to ease up a bit.
Sure, the Raiders are 3-0, and could end up being this season’s Patriots, but they’ve faced the 32nd schedule in DVOA with wins over the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints. We’ll see what they do against the Chiefs.
The Jets have been a pesky 1-2, but is a win over the hapless Titans, and close losses to the Packers and Lions really all that impressive?
Both those games are home, after the Patriots opened with 3 of 4 on the road because the Krafts needed to get their concerts in after the World Cup (how are those going, by the way?).
The Patriots should be favored to be 3-3.
Then, the Patriots visit Chicago (Thursday night), go to Miami and host the Packers. Even if the Patriots go 2-1, they’ll be 5-4 before the Lions in Munich, and the bye week.
They should be in the thick of it by then.
3. The offensive personnel turnover has been rough, but it will improve.
How many times, even with Tom Brady at QB, have we seen the Patriots’ offense look rough early in the season, usually because of personnel turnover at wide receiver, tight end and on the line? That would lead to nonstop consternation about whether the Patriots get the right targets for their system, whether Brady worked enough with them in the offseason, why they don’t invest in the offensive line, etc., etc. (I mean, I’m pretty sure Felger & Mazz have a playbook titled, ‘How To Encourage Patriots Fan Hysteria Every Year,’ and they dust it off every September, and then laugh their way to the bank.)
Yet, every time the Patriots figured it out.
In recent examples, the 2018 Patriots started 1-2 while getting waxed at Jacksonville (24-3 for almost three quarters) and Detroit (Matt Patricia) with the offense averaging 15 points in the losses. The offense ended 4th in points (27.3) and 5th in yards, and the Patriots won the Super Bowl.
Even in the post-Brady era, the Patriots
