The margin for error for the Patriots is slimmer this season. They know it. You know it.
The increased difficulty of their schedule will thrust Mike Vrabel’s team into the kinds of games during which they will have to be on top of every minute detail — especially late — in order to give themselves an opportunity to win a game that could ultimately be the difference between a playoff appearance and missing the tournament altogether.
That was what had to make Wednesday night’s loss to the Seahawks, and Drake Maye’s fourth quarter in particular, so painful. Their chance to steal a win on the road in a difficult environment was stolen from them by the quarterback’s three interceptions, the most egregious of which came with time winding down and a game-tying field goal opportunity — and overtime against a backup quarterback — staring Maye in the face.
According to ESPN, the last time a quarterback threw a pick as costly as that one in a regular-season game — down by three, less than a minute left, inside of the opponent’s 20-yard line — was Kyler Murray in Week 8 of 2021.
It will come as a surprise to absolutely no one, then, where Maye lands in our Week 1 edition of Stock Watch…
Stock Down
Drake Maye, QB
Growth for Drake Maye in his third season, his second in Josh McDaniels’ offense, was going to be measured not by how much more he could do. He proved last season he could carry a less-than-star-studded offense and look like arguably the best quarterback in football.
Growth, rather, would be measured by how consistently he could pare down his mistakes. After shaky performances against high-end defenses throughout last year’s postseason, the expectation was that that four-game reality check would spur change. But questions lingered prior to the start of the season.
How frequently could he tamp down his playmaking, gun-slinging mindset when the situation called for it? How often could he make the patient, prudent choice when chaos reigned? How quickly, in essence, could his game mature?
While Maye kept the Patriots in Seattle with his scrambling and the occasional timely throw — a 19-yarder to Mack Hollins in the final drive kept their chances alive in a second-and-21 situation — he, by his own admission, got impatient and failed his first test against another top-tier defense.
Romeo Doubs, WR
With A.J. Brown out of the game early in this one, it was Mack Hollins who saw a massive bump in workload. He ended up playing 50 snaps (70 percent) to lead all receivers. Then came Pop Douglas with 44 snaps and then Romeo Doubs (40).
That’s right. The free-agent acquisition the Patriots hoped would elevate their offense — the highly-paid upgrade brought aboard well before the A.J. Brown trade was executed — played just over half (56 percent) of the team’s offensive snaps. He played fewer plays than the journeyman veteran and the diminutive sixth-round slot receiver who had 31 catches last season.
His usage was curious in that he repped as a starting receiver alongside Brown throughout training camp. It raises questions as to how exactly the coaching staff views his fit in the offense at this early stage in his Patriots tenure.
Doubs finished without a catch on three targets and had one ugly game-changing drop that would’ve given the Patriots an easy first down prior to Maye’s second interception. Doubs expressed after the game that he wasn’t “locked in” enough, but insisted he would be better moving forward. He’ll need to be with Brown dealing with what’s been reported as a high ankle sprain. Only one way to go after a forgettable Week 1.
Coaching
While erasing just one of Maye’s three interceptions could’ve led to a different outcome and the Patriots flying home 1-0, there was no shortage of second-guesses for Patriots coaches after this one.
Why were Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels so committed to running the football against one of the best run defenses in the NFL? They averaged 2.6 yards per carry with their running backs, even after Rhamondre Stevenson ran for multiple good gains late. Unsuccessful early-down runs led to third-and-long situations where Mike Macdonald could scheme things up to make life difficult for Maye and the Patriots passing game. The Patriots ran 16 times on first down for 49 yards.
Why did Vrabel pack it in at the end of the first half? He may have believed that going into the locker room on the road with a lead safely in hand would give his group an emotional lift. But with a timeout left, and with Seattle seemingly about to punt with a few seconds left on the clock, the Patriots opted to let the clock run out. Why not get aggressive there — not reckless! — and let the dangerous Marcus Jones have a chance at a return? Or go for a punt block? It wasn’t a game-deciding call by Vrabel by any stretch, but it seemed like a missed opportunity to take a free shot at a big play.
Why did defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr call for as much zone as he did? This can be difficult to track in real time, but according to NextGen Stats, Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught every one of his receptions against zone coverage. He finished with eight grabs for 122 yards and a touchdown… without the newly highly-paid Christian Gonzalez manned up on him for any of those receptions. Mirroring receivers who change their location, as Seattle’s did Wednesday, can be a challenge. But hard to leave a game like that one knowing your best guy had little impact on their best guy.
Lastly, why not have the starters play at least a little bit in the preseason? Joint practices against the Eagles were three weeks ago. That’s a long time for New England’s best to go since their last high-speed competitive snaps against another team. This isn’t necessarily hindsight being 20-20. We discussed it many times late in the preseason, and I contended that some preseason action wouldn’t have been a bad idea.
I understood Vrabel’s argument at the time that risking the health of his best players wasn’t something he was willing to entertain. But the Patriots didn’t look ready, especially offensively, and I wonder if some preseason play might’ve helped in that regard.
Stock Up
Will Campbell, LT
It wasn’t perfect. He picked up a holding call and a block in the back. But it was far better than the last time the country watched him try to play hurt against one of the stoutest defensive fronts in football. He looks poised to make a Year 2 leap after a largely sturdy night in Seattle.
Mack Hollins, WR
He continues to be Mr. Reliable late in games for Drake Maye. He finished with four catches for 51 yards, including a key 19-yarder on the final drive. He was on the scene for the final pick, and it’s worth asking if the route combination had its timing disrupted for some reason, but that mistake falls on the quarterback.
Gabe Jacas, LB
It wasn’t a dominant performance by the rookie, but it was the definition of a “Stock Up” performance from a player who looked lost at times during preseason play. He picked up his first career sack, a hustle play made possible in part by some good coverage on the back end, and an impressive tackle for loss in the run game. His growth could be huge for a position group that is thin and dealing with injury.
