A woman walks along the promenade on a rainy monsoon day, at Marine Drive in Mumbai, on June 30, 2026.
| Photo Credit: PTI
Rainfall in July – the most important of the monsoon months – will be “below normal” or less than 94% of what is usual for the month, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, India Meteorological Department (IMD), said on Tuesday (June 30, 2026).
India’s current monsoon deficit is 40%.
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“Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability,” the agency said in a statement. “Such conditions may increase the risk of heat stress, and pressure on available water resources in several regions. To reduce potential impacts, timely planning and preparedness measures, including water conservation, efficient management of available water resources, and suitable agricultural contingency measures, may be considered by the concerned agencies and stakeholders.”
The outlook for July comes on the back of weak June rainfall where the shortfall was nearly 40% of what is usual for the month. The 99.5 mm received was the fifth lowest since 1901 and the least since 2014.
“Usually two-three low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal (pre-cyclonic bands of moisture) bring rain in June. This time there was none. The El Nino that developed in June has negatively impacted rainfall,” said Mr. Mohapatra at a press briefing. The first week of July will likely see good rainfall in India and this will benefit sowing, he said.
But with the month’s rainfall expected to be weak, the overall outlook is “bleak”, a senior meteorologist with the IMD told The Hindu. “The last two monsoons were good so we have some surplus water storage in reservoirs, but this could be drained out faster with higher evaporation (due to low rains in the weeks ahead and high temperatures),” the meteorologist added.
The area under kharif crop has declined 22% compared to the same time last year, according to the Agriculture Ministry, with farmers likely delaying the sowing of paddy until more substantial showers. Key water reservoirs in India, as of the latest figures available from the Central Water Commission on June 25, have about 25% less water than they had in June 2025. But when averaged over 10 years, is 5% more than usual for June.
The monsoon deficits assume significance in a year that forecasters globally have warned will likely be a ‘Super El Nino’ year. This means an unusually hot Central Pacific through this peak period will only surface in winter – much after the southwest monsoon officially winds up by September-end. Six in 10 El Nino years translate to weak southwest monsoon rainfall.
Reputed weather models from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have suggested that the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, a climate pattern marked by changing sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean that can strengthen or weaken India’s monsoon depending on its phase, could develop in the second of the monsoon (August and September) and, in theory, ameliorate the El Nino’s impact.
“Our own models and several other reputable models show that the dipole will be ‘neutral,’ [meaning unhelpful]. The El Nino is like the big brother, and the IOD cannot fully compensate,” said Mr. Mohapatra.
The 1997-98 El Nino year – one of the strongest in meteorological history – saw 2% more rain than was usual in India due to a favourable phase of the IOD. “That has happened only once ever,” the IMD D-G said.
Published – June 30, 2026 06:22 pm IST
