South Australia has taken a major step towards strengthening its long-term bushfire resilience, with the release of the state’s first-ever comprehensive assessment mapping future bushfire risks through to 2050.
Released today by the State Bushfire Coordination Committee (SBCC), the State Bushfire Risk Assessment (SBRA) provides an unprecedented statewide picture of how severe bushfires could impact communities, critical infrastructure, public services, the economy and the environment in the decades ahead.
The assessment is designed to help emergency services, government agencies and local communities make smarter decisions about where to focus prevention efforts, preparedness programs and future investment.
Using advanced fire behaviour modelling and high-emissions climate scenarios, the report explores the maximum plausible impacts of bushfires across South Australia. While the scenarios are not predictions, they provide a detailed look at the types of extreme events that could occur as the climate changes.
The assessment was launched at the National Hazards Research Forum at Adelaide’s National Wine Centre and is expected to become a key planning tool for the state’s emergency management sector.
Minister for Emergency Services Rhiannon Pearce shared, “This assessment provides the evidence emergency services need to prioritise prevention and protect communities. Enabling resilience now will saves lives, livelihoods, and recovery costs in the future.
“By better understanding hazards, exposure, resilience, and capacity, the SBRA will equip households, councils, emergency services and State agencies with the information needed for risk‑informed investment, planning and preparedness.”
The assessment combines Phoenix RapidFire and SPARK fire behaviour modelling with data on population, infrastructure, ecosystems and other assets to identify where future bushfire impacts could be most severe.
Importantly, it shifts the focus from simply understanding where fires may occur to understanding the consequences they could have on communities and essential services.
By identifying areas of highest exposure and vulnerability, emergency services can better target preparedness programs, fuel reduction strategies, community education and capability upgrades.
The assessment will also help inform future planning decisions by councils, government agencies and land managers as they prepare for increasing bushfire risks linked to climate change.
SBCC Chair and CFS Chief Officer Brett Loughlin AFSM said, “The SBRA will sharpen the focus of CFS capability and community preparedness programs.
“As the State’s bushfire hazard lead, CFS will use the SBRA to target capability uplift and community preparedness where they will make the biggest difference.
“This assessment gives us the evidence base to plan with confidence for the fire threat our communities will face in the decades ahead.”
The assessment aligns with national disaster risk reduction frameworks and will directly inform the next State Bushfire Management Plan. It will also complement ongoing Bushfire Management Area Plan projects currently measuring shorter-term bushfire risks across the state.
Importantly, the SBRA has been designed as a living document, with updates planned as new data, technology and modelling capabilities become available.
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